Mets360 - Where to hit Robinson Cano is a good problem for Mets

Where to hit Robinson Cano is a good problem for Mets

by Joe Vasile • July 20, 2020

With baseball finally back in the form of exhibition games between the Mets and Yankees over the weekend, it is feels nice to get to nit-pick manager’s lineup decisions again. First year manager Luis Rojas has the luxury of a talented and deep set of hitters to draw from, but already he has raised some eyebrows.

Sunday, Brian Joura broke down Saturday’s box score and raised the same concerns that have come up on social media about Rojas’ lineups – Robinson Cano batting third. Brian mentioned a preference for batting Cano sixth or lower, which we’ll address later. However, assuming a lineup full of regulars for the Mets, Cano presents an interesting case to be the No. 3 hitter.

“Definitely features very well to hit third in the lineup,” Rojas said of Cano to the media on Saturday. “We don’t have the lineup set for Opening Day yet, but he’s a guy that features to be there in the middle of the lineup.

“There’s a lot of versatility in the lineup, guys that can hit in different positions,” Rojas continued. “We are getting a feel for each one, to hit in different spots. We’ve done it throughout camp and that’s what we’re doing today. He should be in the middle of the lineup. That’s what we foresee.”

It should be noted that while Rojas has coached and managed in the minor leagues since 2006, minor league managers typically don’t have the kind of freedom in making out their lineups that MLB managers do. Like all other MiLB managers, Rojas has been at the mercy of what the player development staff tells him to do. The input is assuredly still there in the majors, but he has more decision-making ability than before.

Much of the disagreement centers on lineup construction theory. Even today, the “best hitter bats third” camp clashes with the “best hitter bats second” camp which has gained more mainstream acceptance in MLB circles. The flip side of that theory is that your No. 3 hitter, traditionally the best overall hitter in the lineup should be the fifth-best hitter as outlined in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. For that camp, No. 3 makes the perfect spot in the lineup for Cano.

Cano is 37 and coming off of his worst season since 2008, but the glimmer of hope for him is in his strong finish from 2019. Last year was a story of two seasons for Cano: In the first half he hit just .240/.287/.360 and his wOBA was .276. After returning from injury in the second half of the season he hit .284/.339/.541 and his wOBA jumped to .358.

His second-half offensive numbers are superior to Amed Rosario, Wilson Ramos and even Alonso. It’s not smart to expect a repeat of that second half performance in 2020, but it’s not unfair to expect him to be closer to that than his dreadful first half.

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