Reese Kaplan -- July 24th Opening Day 2020 Baseball

Welcome to the 2020 Opening Day!  Now is the time to examine the team and figure out what to watch in the upcoming abbreviated season.  There are any number of topics that most fans would discuss among themselves, including, of course, the number of injuries and how they will impact the lineup construction going forward for the next 60 games.

The latest one, of course, is the late announcement from pre-season that the free-agent-to-be Marcus Stroman is on the sidelines with a muscle tear in his calf.  To hear him tell it (and bear in mind he’s the ultimate optimist) he is fine, it’s just a time consuming thing, and after throwing some 55 MPH pitches from the mound he felt good.  He is projecting a return in August.  Bear in mind it’s now July 24th, so that’s not advocating very much time for the muscle to heal.  He said he can’t run at full speed which, even without batting, is still a part of fielding his position.  I immediately thought about the rotund Bartolo Colon, not for his arm but for his way better than average fielding ability.  He obviously did not run very hard to field his position, so maybe there’s some truth in what Stroman says.

Of course, the biggest topic of debate as a result of this second starting pitcher from the rotation is who takes Stroman’s place.  Even if we assume the most optimistic time frame and Stroman is back for September 1st, you still need to fill five weeks worth of starts with someone.  

The obvious candidates don’t fill folks with a lot of optimism.  The number one choice in expectation if not enthusiasm is Corey Oswalt.  Say what you will about his less-than-stellar performances on the mound in the big leagues, he is a known commodity with an enviable minor league record.  In 2018 he started 12 and in 2019 he started two.  Suffice to say, his overall record in the majors is just 3-4 with a 6.43 ERA and averaged under 7 Ks per 9 IP.  

However, if you take a look at his minor league record, he seems like a totally different guy.  For the minors he is 51-26 with a 3.51 ERA with a better WHIP and a higher strikeout average per game.  While those numbers don’t scream “All Star,” it’s entirely possible he could tread water until Stroman returns to audition for his 2021 team.  

Others have soured so much on Oswalt (and the others of his ilk) that they are willing to hand the ball to never-faced-AAA (let alone the majors) David Peterson.  He was a high draft pick whose minor league numbers were worse than Oswalt.  He is 29-32 with a 3.55 ERA.  His WHIP is about the same but his strikeout numbers are better.  In 2019 he was primarily at AA with 24 games started and finished with a 3-6 record and a 4.19 ERA.  His fans will point out that he did well in the winter leagues and looked adequate in the pre-season, but remember he’s not even faced AAA hitters yet and was struggling against AA.  Since he’s not even on the 30-man roster, it’s unlikely he gets the nod.

The third name that comes up is reliever Seth Lugo.  This name generates more impassioned arguments than just about anyone else.  Just as Jeurys Familia was never got at any role but closer, Lugo has been terrific in the pen but mediocre in the rotation.  Granted, the Mets do have healing Dellin Betances and recovered Hunter Strickland to supplement the pen this year, but they are short Brad Brach, Jared Hughes and Robert Gsellman.  Taking a strong reliever away to work once every five days weakens the pen for those full five days while his results as a starter have not been outstanding.  Remember, Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera became a reliever because he couldn’t hack it as a starter.  Some are better in one role or the other.  

Finally, there’s the nostalgic crowd who want to see a reunion with the popular, affable and formerly competent Bartolo Colon.  Adding him to the roster would help Colon achieve some personal goals if he remembered how to pitch, but the last few years have been pretty horrible for him.  He was slated to pitch in Mexico this year but they shut down the league entirely.  I know having Colon would entice a lot of fans to show up for his first couple of starts if fans attended the games, but they will not this year so there’s little to be gained by bringing Big Sexy back other than recognizing that this season is just plain weird, so why not?

At Thursday’s press conference Brodie Van Wagenen took a surprisingly indirect approach to the question of the fifth starter by saying no decision has been made yet and it’s inevitably Luis Rojas’ call.  That’s either a brave or cowardly thing to hand off to the rookie manager, but methinks he wants no blame when something goes wrong.  After all, with new owners expected, he has his own job to try to protect. 

Regardless of how they try to solve the last member of the rotation problem, there are plenty of other issues to consider.  Will Yoenis Cespedes hit well enough to justify having him play regularly?  Will he be able to navigate his way around the bases as a DH at Bartolo Colon speed?  Will Rojas figure out how to juggle J.D. Davis and Dom Smith to get them ABs?  Will Robinson Cano show us that his first year on the Mets was much like Carlos Beltran’s first year, and he can rebound?  Will some of the recovering pitchers like Betances and Drew Smith function well in game action?  Is Jake Marisnick capable of running to field his position, or is the presence of Juan Lagares more than a “just in case” measure?  Will we ever hear about what happened to the “undisclosed illness” bunch who either are on the IL or who were missing from various lengthy portions of the short pre season?  

Oh well, there are now 16 teams slated to reach the playoffs instead of 10, so the odds of the Mets playing October baseball theoretically improved.