DAVID RUBIN: Welcome to Owning The New York Mets! Here is your Initial Operations Manual! Part TWO of THREE

Welcome back and thank you for continuing to read this Initial Operations Manual that we’ve prepared for you. We know you have a short memory, which is what it takes to get the specters of Jeff and Fred Wilpon out of your mind, in spite of their continuing to hold 5% of your organization.

In this portion of your manual, we are going to briefly review your most important on-field assets, your major league roster and minor league organization. In part three of this manual, you will learn about your current on-field management team (Manager, Coaches, etc) as well as your most vital asset, your rabid fanbase!! For now, let’s move forward and discuss your players, because after spending so much money and winning the ownership bid, and after digesting the team’s financial state (gulp!!) it’s now vital for you to know what you have actually purchased!!

CURRENT 40-MAN ROSTER

When you purchase a new car and find out some hidden gadget that you didn’t know the car had, or learn that the estimated mileage is actually even better than what the manufacturer promised, you get that great feeling of having received even more than what you thought you were buying!! Or when your daughter all of a sudden starts singing at the age of 6 and you learn she has the voice of an angel, adding even more to the great love you already have for her! Well, guess what??? Neither of those feelings will be yours when you see your 40-Man Roster in person. 

Now don’t get buyer’s remorse, as there is plenty to be happy about in both the composition of this roster as well as the ability to supplement it pretty easily. Again, it’s gonna take Money! Money! Money! to make that happen, but as we’ve discussed, you haven’t come this far and spent this much to get feet of clay now. So, in order to properly perform your evaluation, we need to look at this in 6 parts – infield, outfield, catcher, starting pitching, bullpen and bench. We will look at the minor league side in the second part of this manual entry, so don’t jump ahead.

Infield

You’ll be happy to know that your infield is, and will potentially remain, a great strength of your roster. Jeff McNeil, who can be comfortably slotted in a second base or third, is the mainstay of your infield, and we recommend your keeping him there. It would necessitate moving Robinson Cano to a more permanent DH role, but would result in a far better defensively-aligned infield and outfield, as McNeil hasn’t looked more than serviceable in left field. We will talk about his back-up, one Luis Guillorme, in the bench portion but just be aware that Luis has amazing talent in the field and, if given the chance, we believe he will prove to be more than adequate at bat as well. 

Moving on, shortstop is going to be a position you will need to make a determination about, not just for the coming season but for a number of years into the future. You see, both BVW and his predecessor, Sandy Alderson, invested quite a bit of draft and international free agent capital on the signing and development of players who call shortstop home, including the puzzling incumbent Amed Rosario. Rosario had a helluva great second half to the 2019 season, and a lot was expected of him moving into 2020. 

Whether it was the long delay or whether 2019 was a mirage, we don’t know, but Roasrio once more looks over-matched so far in 2020. His bat has not been a plus, while his defense remains somewhat of a strength, particularly his throwing arm. And that is where the big question mark comes in – do you keep him at shortstop, especially with young Andres Gimenez performing so well and so smoothly in his first taste of the bigs, or do you try him out this offseason in centerfield, his arm and speed potentially serving him well in the position change? 

This is a question that we are more than happy to help you with, should you agree to hire us on in a more permanent role, but it’s one that you’re just going to have to make a decision on because, not only is Gimenez already here, but within a short period of time you’re going to see 4 players, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Shervyen Newton in play for 2 positions, shortstop and third base, not including incumbents Rosario, Gimenez and JD Davis at third. We will discuss these prospects in the next part of our Manual, but this is truly an embarrassment of riches that is going to need some skillful decision-making, and fast.

Continuing our tour of the infield, first base is in the most capable of hands, in fact, not two of them but FOUR of them!! In Pete Alonso, the Rookie of the Year in 2019, and Dom Smith, a former first round draft pick with potentially the best all around bat in the organization, you have two players that could crack the line-ups of almost every team in the majors. Pete brings a super power-bat to the table, as well as much-improved defense and his enthusiasm and clicking with the fanbase provide a great marketing asset that the team has already seen a great return-on-investment in so far. 

With Smith, who finally was receiving some much-deserved playing time in left field in 2019 saw his season end due to injury, robbing him of regular playing time upon his return. Thankfully his ’19 performance and weight loss left a great impression on the organization, as he quickly became a semi-regular at the start of the ’20 season, leading them in home runs and RBI’s as late as August 18^th of 2020 (this manual was created in late August 2020, in order to give your new ownership group a jump on 2021 so we based this on numbers current with that time.) 

Smith provides a steady hand at first in Alonso’s absence, and should you plan to provide Alonso with more time at DH, Smith would prove to be an upgrade in the field in spite of Pete’s great strides. Smith is also a great teammate, as even though Alonso received the lion’s share of playing time in ’19, Smith was his biggest cheerleader and he cemented a great place in the clubhouse with his genuine enthusiasm and big heart. And he’s proven the naysayers wrong, particularly one Keith Law, as he showed that he could indeed, should the need arise on a more permanent basis, the ability to play a good and possibly very good left field, provided he receive the practice time.

Finishing off the tour of our infield, we end with one JD Davis at third, last but not least of this impressive unit. Davis, a steal of a deal for BVW, has shown improved defense at his natural position, third, and with a strong arm and better than expected athleticism his huge bat plays well at this position for at least the near future, or until one of Baty, Vientos or Mauricio moves him off of the hot corner. Davis was a truly present surprise in 2019, a vital part of the line-up in 2020 and hopefully a long-term cog in this excellent machine.

Finally, the old vet of the bunch, Robinson Cano, remains the most volatile of subjects in this group. He looked older than his 36 years during most of 2019, with injuries robbing him of his two hot streaks and him appearing in the second least games of his career, 107, only one year after appearing in THE least games of his career, 80, the year before, due to a suspension for steroids. 

That suspension cast a huge cloud over his once-assured hall of fame career, as there have been few second basemen with over 1200 runs, 2600 hits, 565 doubles, 328 homers, 1285 RBI’s, a .303 batting average and a .353 OBP. He was a rookie-of-the year runner-up, 5-time silver slugger, world series champion, 2 time gold glove winner, 2 time defensive player of the year award, received many MVP votes over the year, 8 all-star appearances and a one-time anchor of the Yankees infield. Now, at 37 and dealing with another injury, Cano has looked far more like his award-winning old self and far less like the diminishing old star of last year. 

How long will that continue? Especially without the benefit of steroids? That’s anyone’s guess, but with so much talent on hand and so much more coming up, his days as a full time second-sacker are well behind him. Now the question is, can you get enough at-bats for him and Smith/Alonso at the DH spot in 2021? If not, your only choices are trading him, which, with his contract is NOT going to happen, or release him and pay him a fortune to no longer play for you. 

Look, you’ve spent upwards of two billion dollars on this purchase (don’t worry, we won’t disclose any of the bidding info nor the real, final purchase price unless you do, first) so writing off another thirty or forty mil at this point will give you at the least a tax write-off. Unless, of course, Cano’s stabilizing influence and his existing skill-set make a case for you keeping him on the team. To that end, your spending cap will definitely be something you’re going to worry about, but at least his acquisition will be attributed to the old regime (should you move on from BVW) or a mistake due to the former owners wanting to win now at the cost of the future. Whichever way you go, it’s the lesser of two evils. We recommend not holding onto this asset after the 2021 season, regardless of how much money his buy-out will cost you.

In summary, infield good now, can be very good; long-term infield prospects look good, probably very, very good and eventually this could rival the much-beloved 1999 infield that is historically one of the best of all-time!

Recommendations: Keep McNeil, Smith, Alonso and Davis in place, explore a trade for Rosario, move Gimenez into the shortstop role for now and figure out the paths for the many Infielders about ready to come up. Release Cano either now or at the end of 2021 if you don’t want to eat that much of the contract. Find a way to get Guillorme more innings at second and more at-bats. 

Make sure you do NOT trade Smith, and get him more playing time so he gets 500-plus at-bats. Value defense far more than the current or prior regimes, as Gimenez is the closest to Rey Ordonez defensively that we’ve ever seen, including Reyes in his prime. He’s got to play every day, so if Rosario cannot move to center, he’s got to be moved, even at a discounted rate. Most of all, keep this unit as a strength and continue to develop top quality hitters and fielders at all positions. Harder than it sounds, but pretty damn exciting to see the quality of players coming up in the future here. It’s going to be a great problem to have!!

Outfield

Talk about a mixed bag! You’ve inherited a player in Michael Conforto who has all the talent in the world, who has been less than consistent, and will be a free agent after the 2021 season. He is a very good defender in right, and when he’s on a hot streak, his bat can carry a team. The problem is those hot-streaks are followed by cold-or-lukewarm streaks and the team needs him to be more consistent in order to keep him long-term. We are in favor of signing him to a long-term deal (think 4 years with a fifth-year option) in order to establish some consistency in your team’s weakest spot. 

There are only 4 outfielders in your top 30 prospect ranking, and the highest ranked, Pete-Crow Armstrong (number one pick in 2020) is only 18 and probably 3 years away from the bigs, at the very least. Therefore, it’s imperative that Conforto anchors this unit for the next 4-5 years to come, Consider him your first in-house signing.

In left field, and also sometimes in center (perhaps way too many times) we present Mr Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo’s strength is his uncanny ability to get on base, whether via a hit or a walk, and he does it all with a joy that’s rarely seen on the ballfield. He has deceptive power, and his outfield play in left is quite a bit better than his work in center. However, with no real full-time choice at that position, Brandon, the great teammate that he is, continues to go out there and play hard every day, as is his way. He’s a prototypical lead-off hitter from the 80’s, and his great ability to get on base is only minimalized by his team’s inability to drive in runs! Certainly not his fault, Nimmo is a core player who deserves to be in that line-up every day, batting lead-off, for many years to come. Signing him long-term will not break the bank, and will send a great message to the players and fanbase alike.

 Which brings us to centerfield, a virtual nowhere-land since the days of Carlos Beltran in his prime. Nimmo is out of position in center; Marisnick is a platoon player at best; and Hamilton is about as good a hitter as Alexander Hamilton was, maybe even worse (and why no one made him into a great bunter will always be beyond us!) This key position in the outfield is one that not only needs a stud, but faces a general shortage of great, all-around players in the majors and minors. 

That’s why it very well may take a position change for a major legue-ready player to cover this spot now, at least until 2023 when Crow-Armstrong will be ready to take over the spot for, hopefully, 7 years plus.

Recommendations: Since you cannot wait that long, with Rosario being tried in center with no guarantees, we still need to think about possible replacements from outside the organization. There is one attractive free agent Outfielder capable of playing center, and he is Houston Astro George Springer. He’s a power bat and a decent fielder with a great arm, and if you sign him to a 4 year deal with a 5^th year option, he can either move over to rightfield once Crow-Armstrong is ready, or he could be trade bait at that time. 

The only centerfielders who might be able to be pried away via trade, and at a cost most probably greater than you should be prepared to pay, are the Athletics Ramon Laureano, the Indians Oscar Mercado or the Rangers Danny Santana. None of the three have a need to trade these players, but if they were receiving the right package of youngsters, all three have been known to wheel and deal, especially the financially challenged A’s. These would again all be short-term fixes, but would certainly be a better fix than having Nimmo playing out of position and relying on flawed platoon players like Marisnick or Hamilton. You’re going to need to pray every day that not only does Crow-Armstrong reach the heights expected of him, but that he stays healthy and finds a way to develop fast without the benefit of a 2020 professional season. A lot to ask for, but it’s a key position and one the team needs desperately to fill.

Catcher

The current starter, Wilson Ramos, has been a quality player for a number of years, but was never known for his athleticism nor speed. The years haven’t been kind to him, as his body seemed to break down more and more as the 2020 season unraveled. He has an option for 2021, but it’s not one that you’re going to want to pick up, as while his quality of play decreases, the play of back-up Tomas Nido increases. 

Nido’s bat was at one time an asset, as he won a minor league hitting title. That was seemingly dozens of years ago, if you went by his prowess at the plate in 2019. Fast forward a year, and while he will never be confused with Mike Piazza, his strong defense and improved offense certainly has cemented his place as the back-up catcher for a number of years. The future of this position is definitely going to be in good hands, with top prospect Francisco Alvarez ready in or about 2023. His bat is very advanced for an 18 year old, and the organization is working on his defense, something that looks to be a plus by the time he hits the majors. He’s a great future answer, but with 2021 coming fast, we will provide a strong recommendation for you.

Recommendation: Sign JT Realmuto – period! BVW was his agent, and was desperate to land him via trade with the Marlins but wasn’t able to complete that transaction and he was moved to Philadelphia. He’s had an amazing season in 2020, and as a free agent will demand a large, probably 5-year deal. As the best two-way catcher in baseball, he’s worth it, and he would be a fantastic teacher for Alvarez when he’s ready to move up to the bigs. Again, you’ve spent the money to land this team, and this is one of three areas (Centerfield, catcher and starting pitching) where the only way to get into contention in 2021 is to buy your way there. It won’t be a permanent fix, but thankfully your team has enough really good young talent in the pipeline that, like the Dodgers, this will be a one-time, large expenditure.

Rotation

In 2020, the reality was that the days of an impactful, homegrown rotation is very much a thing of the recent past. Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler are long gone, Noah Syndergaard is out from TJ Surgery until at least July of 2021 and then becomes a free agent at the end of the season, Steven Matz has proven to be too unreliable and that leaves the one and only (in more ways than one) Jacob deGrom. 

When Marcus Stroman opted out of the 2020 season after injuring himself, it left the Mets no choice but to bring up lefty prospect David Peterson, who made an excellent accounting of himself until coming up with some aches and pains that left him on the 10 Day Injured List (still getting used to saying that). For 2021, that leaves the following choices: Jacob deGrom (ace), David Peterson, Robert Gsellman (should be a long reliever), Franklyn Kilome (needs a LOT of work on repeating his motion and getting more out of his length), Walker Lockett (should NEVER be a starter, let alone be on a major league roster), Matz (needs to be traded elsewhere to see if he can perform away from his hometown crowd), Corey Oswalt (again should never be counted on in the rotation),  Thomas Szapucki (still hasn’t spent a day in the bigs and continues his recovery from TJ Surgery) and Kevin Smith (again, still no major league experience). 

So basically, it’s deGrom and Peterson and possibly Syndergaard in late July/August. That leaves a LOT of room for improvement, improvisation, and opportunity. Let’s get right to the recommendations.

Recommendation: Okay- a lot needs to happen here, but there are some answers. First, speak with Marcus Stroman, see if he wants to continue to pitch in his hometown, and if so, lock him in with a 4-year deal. Next, decide upon bringing back either Michael Wacha or Rick Porcello, with the preference being Wacha due to him seeming to have moments of regaining his stuff. 

Moving forward, and needing another veteran arm, and something more than just a placeholder, you have 2 options. If the Rangers decline his option (doubtful), you can sign Corey Kluber to a 2-3 year deal. Or, if you prefer to make a bigger splash, and add some additional risk, you can go strong after Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer and know in advance that he comes with his outspoken personality and know-it-all façade. How that plays in New York will prove very interesting, but if you add him to the top of the rotation next to deGrom and Stroman, you should really have a good, solid rotation for a number of years to come. 

It’s not like the organization is overflowing with MLB-ready arms now, but in 2-3 years, when the likes of Matthew Allan, J.T.Ginn and Josh Wolf are ready, again probably 2023, you will have that youth infusion once more. Jacob will still be on the team, and hopefully still at the top of his game, albeit now in his mid-30’s at that point. However you decide to go, this is one area that MUST be one of strength, not just because it’s necessary but because it’s a huge part of the team’s culture since winning their first World Series.

Finally, failing all else, you can look to add a very solid arm to the bullpen and stretch out Seth Lugo, something he’s desperate for, and add him to your rotation and make him a very happy camper. In fact, regardless of whether or not you sign Bauer and/or Stroman, we would strongly advise sending Lugo to the Arizona Fall League and getting him some starter innings, and one of your priorities in the Spring should be continuing to stretch Lugo out so by the time the 2021 season begins, he’s ready to go a solid 5 and move up from there. 

Remember, though, in his previous attempts at starting, he averaged around 5 innings per start; you need to ensure that he will be able to go beyond that, or you’ll be stuck with yet another version of Matz. Remember - whatever your GM does, you MUST have 7 starters ready to go, NOT including Thor, who won't be ready until July or August, at best.

Bullpen

This has been a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr Hyde area for the team for 2 years now, generally due to the failings of one Edwin Diaz. The centerpiece of the deal that sent Kelenic out of town, Diaz failed miserably in his first go-round with the team in 2019. A lot was expected of this one-time dominant closer, and as 2020 progressed, we learned that Diaz told the team that he needed to pitch more in order to keep to the form that had made him so successful. He didn’t seem to look much better as the 2020 season finally began, but that soon changed as he was moved away from closing in order to both allow Seth Lugo close for a spell and allowing Diaz an opportunity to get his confidence back. 

He pitched well in a number of appearances in a row, and here’s hoping that this will be the start of his return to the form he showed in 2018. The team desperately needs it, because you don’t have much in the way of future closers in the minors and you have a ton invested in Diaz in the loss of Kelenic. Diaz brings exactly NO guarantees, but due to that huge investment, he’s got to be given at least 2021 to figure things out. His fastball still hits 98 – it just needs to go back to avoiding bats.

The rest of the bullpen has been a pretty impressive group so far this season, led again by Lugo, receiving nice performances by Justin Wilson, Jarod Hughes and especially the surprising Chasen Shreve; a mixed bag from Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia; a late start from Brad Brach due to COVID-related illness, and less than satisfying performances by Paul Sewald and Drew Smith. 

Most teams have this kind of inconsistency with their bullpens from year-to-year, but before COVID and the start of the season, many experts were predicting that the Mets would have one of if not the best bullpen in the game. It was in the running, but far from the best mostly due to the inconsistencies of Diaz. That can easily change, with some added support for 2021.

Recommendations:

 Diaz has shown a lot of improvement over his 2019 performance, and whether or not he can keep that up in front of fans in 2021 remains to be seen. We recommend adding at least 2 arms to the bullpen competition, in addition to bringing back Brach for one more season, plus Wilson, Betances, Familia, Shreve and Hughes. Add in Lugo if he’s not going to be added to the rotation and Gsellman in long relief, and you almost hve a complete unit once more. We recommend adding Alex Colome to the mix, and you will have a number of less expensive additions to sort through to further enhance this unit. 

If you follow our recommendation of having Lugo in the rotation, Colome will replace him as a set-up person with Diaz moving back to his old closer role. You will need to re-sign both Wilson and Betances, and they are both worth keeping with at least 2 year deals.

Bench

The pandemic provided MLB just cause to expand roster sizes, first to 30, then down to 28 and finally to 26. Here’s hoping that the expanded size is extended indefinitely, to coincide with the addition of the DH to the National League. 28 would be a good, solid number, allowing for both an extended bullpen as well as an adequate bench. The Mets possess a lot of positional flexibility, with swiss army knife-like production from the likes of Guillorme, Gimenez, Davis, Smith and McNeil. With a bench of Nido, Marisnick, Hamilton, Guillorme, Gimenez and Nunez (if he comes back) there is quite a bit of versatility and not a ton of drop-off, as there has been in the past. 

One thing BVW has done a very good job of is ensuring that there are a number of players that are major league ready for this crazy season. That being said, they’ve already lost Matt Adams to the Braves before the season began and recently DFAed Brian Dozier, so there aren’t a lot of major league-ready hitters waiting in Brooklyn anymore. So the bench they have now, including Rene Rivera being out for probably the season after having his elbow operated on for bone chips, is the bench that will finish out the year. It’s going to be what it is, but moving forward this particular season has shown how vital it is to have numerous options available to account for injuries and poor performance. 

Gimenez coming up was a perfect example of being in the right place at the right time as injuries happened. He and Guillorme received their first extended playing time and both showed that they need to be considered for regular roles in the line-up – a great problem to have.

Recommendation: So, whether BVW or a new person is the GM, you need to ensure that your bench and your AAA team are stocked with flexible hitters, to ensure that when injuries do happen, and they will, you’re prepared and not having to move minor league talent for a short-term fix.

FARM SYSTEM

Before we even address the farm system, moving forward, there will be one hard and fast rule - no more mentioning Jarred Kelenic or Scott Kazmir! It's bad enough that the media won't let go of either, like a rabid dog with a bone; if you keep going back to these deals, the team and the system will never move forward. Now, on to our review of the Farm System:

First thing you need to do- ignore Baseball America, Keith Law, and all the pages that review farm systems. There have long been prejudices against this organization because of the Wilpons poor treatment of everything baseball-related. The Angels recently went from one of the worst-rated systems in the game, and rightly so. They’re currently in the top 15, based largely on the backs of 2 top prospects in Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh. 

Your farm system may not have a guaranteed star like Adell, at least not yet, but you are the proud owner of a farm system that is deep in valuable talent, at least 15-deep, and quite frankly if the 2020 minor league season had been played, you would have seen some great strides made under the guiding hand of Jared Banner and team. In fact, these farm system-specific sites would have watched players like Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Matthew Allen, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mark Vientos, Josh Wolf and Kevin Smith take the next steps in their development, with at least 2-4 of them breaking into everyone’s top 100 lists.

The reality is, even with the unfortunate trade of Kelenic, this system is laden with some talent that will really pay great dividends by 2023 at the latest. We recommend following the Dodgers excellent lead and spending heavily on the minor leagues and especially international free agents while also spending heavily on the major league team simultaneously. Eventually, the young talent pipeline will pay such great dividends that you won’t need to look outside the organization except to either supplement what you already have, or grabbing that once-in-a-lifetime free agent that will put you over the top.

Recommendation: Stay the course with your minor leaguers. They are obviously capital that can either be used to plug holes directly at the major league level, or as trade capital to acquire what you need from another organization. Right now, you need to treat your entire minor leagues as untouchable, until you and your organization are in lock-step with how you want to proceed in the future. Don’t be hasty, and don’t let a GM try to keep their job and stay in contention by making a move that will pay off a bit now for a big future sacrifice. 

That’s not the way to properly oversee this huge investment that you have made. Remember this when and if you face this situation. And don't interfere with Jared Banner- let him continue to develop these players, as he's been successful in 2 organizations now - don't mess with what is working so well!!

In Part Three of our Operations Manual, we will take a look at the last, critical parts of your new team: the state of the on-field management team, and your rabid fan-base.. Until then, we still recommend getting some sleep, staying hydrated, and remember to start transferring over some of those millions to the team’s coffers – with free agency and the Rule V draft coming up, you’re going to have to start spending some of that cold, hard cash very soon.

For Part One of this series, click here.