Reese Kaplan -- What Role Suits Seth Lugo Best?

The decision to move Seth Lugo into the rotation in place of Steven Matz has raised both cheers and eyebrows.  After all, there are times during the past several seasons when Matz looked like a quality major leaguer.  Even his 4.21 ERA in 2019 was not awful.  However, this year he's been more than double that output for the opposition, sporting an embarrassing one earned run per inning ERA.  Ugh!

Seth Lugo, by contrast, has been a terrific hurler out of the pen.  Over his major league career he's sporting a relief pitcher ERA in the 2.63 range.  That performance explains why so many fans hold him in high regard and have been pushing for him to join the rotation.  While on the surface that would seem to make sense, there's a definite down side to his pitching career.

As a starting pitcher Seth Lugo has been mediocre. His career ERA is below 4.00, but he's not been nearly as effective as he has been in small doses out of the pen pitching 1-2 innings at a time.  Not having been prepped for the magnitude of a starting pitcher role, it's unlikely he's going to have the arm strength to go more than three innings at the outset.

According to the Mets, this move is not simply to try to sweep the Marlins with a likely better mound man than Matz.  It's a long term solution that may be part of the forward thinking for the year 2021.  As recounted here on many occasions, the Mets are dreadfully thin on starting pitching next year.  Having Seth Lugo capable of going every 5th day would certainly help them spend their money to address other needs rather than plunking down 8-figure contracts like they did for the unpredictable Rick Porcello. 

The question most fans in the "Oh no, they didn't!" collective is what will the club do to replace Lugo in the pen?  I am always cautious to point out the highly respectable job Edwin Diaz has been doing of late and has lowered his ERA for the season to a gaudy 2.53 while having 24 strikeouts in less than 11 innings pitched. 

Behind him you have the usually reliable Dellin Betances, the occasionally reliable Jeurys Familia, the COVID-19 victims Brad Brach and Jared Hughes, plus assorted other bodies.  Drew Smith was recently sent back to the taxi squad to make room for others, but I can see him getting promoted again.  In 6 innings pitched this year he has 6 Ks and a WHIP an eye-popping 0.833.  Getting him some extra innings is going to help in that 2021 planning as well. 

There are others who need to get additional time on the mound, including Franklyn Kilome, David Peterson (when healthy) and even Corey Oswalt who recently threw a decent start.  These guys are more oriented towards potential rotation roles rather than bullpen duty.  Given the fragility of the Mets starters this year it's a good idea to see who looks to have potential to pitch effectively and who does not have the durability.  Michael Wacha is a good example of a pitcher who, when he is on, can be terrific, but he spends as much time on the IL as he does on the mound.

Overall I'm holding off my conclusion about the Lugo move until I see how it goes.  I don't worry as much about the pen as I do about the rotation, so it would be good to see if Lugo's future can be in that role.  I am also concerned to see how Matz performs out of the pen.  For an inning at a time who knows?  Maybe he is a latter day Dennis Eckersley who found more success in relief than as a starter.