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9/21/20

Mets360 - Edwin Diaz is ‘breaking’ Statcast in 2020

 


By Joe Vasile September 21, 2020

Since coming over in a trade with the Seattle Mariners before 2019, Edwin Diaz has been the most-maligned member of the Mets pitching staff. After a dreadful first season in New York, the flame-throwing righty had a 7.71 ERA through three appearances in 2020 and was demoted from the closer’s role.

Entering Monday, Diaz is quietly working on a stretch of eight straight scoreless appearances, and has only allowed one earned run in his last 12 games. Importantly, that includes three straight scoreless appearances against the Philadelphia Phillies from September 15-17 – the first time he pitched in three straight games since April 2019.

But even as the righty has been re-installed as the Mets closer and he has pitched incredibly well, many fans have a sense of uneasiness when he comes into a game. For sure, some of this is the fatalistic, Murphy’s Law mentality that goes along with being a Mets fan, but Diaz has found a way to not make it easy. His last appearance against Philadelphia is a good illustration:

He loaded the bases on two walks and a hit batsman, but two strikeouts and a groundout bailed Diaz out of the game and sealed the win for New York. No runs allowed, but plenty of agita stirred. It was a nail-biting four-run win for the Mets.

That is the most frustrating thing with Diaz this season. While he has been far less hittable (strikeouts are up, hits and home runs are down), his control has completely failed him at times. In his 2018 All-Star season with the Mariners, Diaz walked 2.1 batters per nine innings. This year, he has walked 5.3 per nine. More on that in a bit, but first let’s look at what has gone right this year.

The Good

Statcast loves the season that Diaz has been putting together compared to the league. He is ranked in the top 1% of MLB in strikeout rate (50.0%), xBA (.135), xwOBA (.231), xSLG (.217) and Whiff% (50.5%). Those are the same categories he dominated in from 2016-18 with Seattle, and took a step backward in during 2019. It is a tremendously positive sign.

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7 comments:

  1. Diaz is obviously a keeper but I still question if he the closer we need in 2021.

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  2. Treinen or Hendricks would fit well here.

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  3. Interesting, but the starting premise is in a vacuum. He was pitching for the third straight night, n doubt not at his best due to that, and just missed on some pitches. His 3 in 3 das is like letting a pitcher pitch in the 9th inning going for a complete game. Usually, there is degradation. In his case, he hung in there.

    I think he is our 2021 closer. He will be brilliant 80%, frustrating 10%, and fail 10%. I will take that.

    Who else will close? Lugo is needed to start, his last debacle next twithstanding.

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  4. He walks too many batters and when he gives up hits they are HRs. Hes the anti Mariano. Trade him now that hes got value again. Maybe you can get a top minorleague hitting prospect.

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  5. The homers to Aaron Hicks and Marcel Osuna hurt the most.

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  6. John, to play devil’s advocate, those are two very dangerous power hitters.

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  7. Richard Hausig, just like with d’Arnaud, what is the pitching deficit if Diaz leaves? Huge. If we had a surplus, trade away. This staff is very short on talent. I keep the best and build around them.

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