Amed Rosario is having a tough year, although it might be helpful to remember that this "year" is only a couple of months. Still, it's been quite a struggle for the young shortstop. He was considered part of the Mets core coming into the season after finishing really strong last year, and now he finds himself at the wrong end of a platoon with a younger shortstop who probably would have started the season in Triple-A if not for COVID. He enjoyed a fine offensive game last night, but wound up getting picked off first to end the game. Afterwards he admitted that he wasn't even looking to steal.
Rosario has struggled to match the improved plate discipline that marked his greatly improved second half last season. His On Base Percentage is .267 through 120 PA. His defense has been fine, at least to my eyes, but Giménez is obviously a better, more polished shortstop. And the kid is only 21, and likely to get better. Of course, Rosario is only 24, and maybe that is just too young to give up on a promising player.
The Mets will have some tough decisions to make regarding their infielders this off-season. Giménez is only 21, and might actually benefit from some time in Triple-A, but it's hard to justify that move based on how well he's played. Rosario will be 25 next season, and it's hard to see how he would improve offensively playing part time. Luis Guillorme is the veteran of the group, turning 26 in late September. His versatility is his strength, but if he continues to hit well he would deserve more playing time, maybe even a semi-regular role. Top prospect Ronny Mauricio is regarded as potentially the best of all, but at 19 he's got more developing to do before ascending to the majors.
If you feel as if Rosario can handle a part-time role, there might be some benefit to keeping him on the club, as he's the only right-handed batter of the three in the majors. There's been talk of trying him as a centerfielder, but that's a tough change to make at the Major League level. Juan Lagares made the move effectively from shortstop to centerfield, but that happened in the minors. You could try to trade Rosario in the off-season, but you'd be selling awfully low. Maybe the best thing they could consider for 2020 is to start working him out in centerfield and at least get a look at him once Luis Rojas accedes to reality and runs up the white flag on this season.
As I said, tough choices lie ahead, with the probability of a new owner and the possibility of a new GM and/or Manger to complicate the decision making.
Because this is an opinion blog, I'm going to offer you up a "for what it's worth" opinion on the matter. I don't think Rosario was projected to ever be a great defensive shortstop. I think his best case was as a competent major league fielder and an above-average hitter at the position. He had a very good second half of the year offensively last season, primarily in July and August. He had a fantastic July, slashing .350/.402/.538 for an outstanding OPS+ of145. He was good in August, slashing .333/.359/.423, good for an OPS+ of 103, a bit above league average. By September he was back to being somewhat impatient at the plate, slashing .283/.311/.414, an OPS+ of 96.
If you were making the evaluation for the Mets, and thought that Rosario's potential was the numbers he hit in July last year, you'd be projecting an All-Star shortstop. It would be a no-brainer to give him more of a chance. If you were thinking about Rosario as the hitter he was in August/September 2019, that would add up to a potential solid Major League starting shortstop.
But Giménez could achieve that level of offensive success and be a better fielder. Advantage Giménez. If you thought more like first half 2019/this season production, then you're looking at a bench player if he could adapt, Quad-A player if not. Complicating everything somewhat is that he possesses fine speed, but has shown zero acumen to be a base stealer.
Unless you're willing to commit to Rosario as a starter, you probably need to look at other options. Then you have to ask yourself how much you believe in Gimenez's bat, based on a rather small sample size. The league really hasn't had the time to fully adjust to him yet. He'll probably need to draw a few more walks to improve his offensive value. He might very well benefit from getting some time in Triple-A next year. If not, I want to see if he can go into a protracted slump and work his way out of it before I'd be comfortable with him as my Major League starting shortstop.
So, if it was up to me to take the next steps with Rosario, I would try very hard to get a preliminary look at Rosario in the outfield before this season was over. Ideally he would play some outfield in winter ball, except it doesn't seem likely that there will be winter ball this year. If I was the GM, I would certainly listen to any potential deals for Rosario this winter, although I wouldn't be holding my breath that any other team is going to be offering any real value in return. What I wouldn't do is just unload him for peanuts, you might as well hold onto him and see how injuries and other circumstance's affect things going into next season.
I wrote yesterday that I would really love to see the Mets work to implement an organization wide balanced approach to hitting that would be taught to any player in their minor league system and continue to be emphasized at the Major League level. That doesn't mean, however, that I believe you can wave a magic wand and force every young hitter into a certain rigidly prescribed mold. Major League baseball is really f***ing hard. A young hitter needs patience to succeed, but can't afford to be passive at the plate. Successful Major League pitchers throw the ball very hard, do a decent job of placing their fastballs where they're harder to hit, and compliment those fastballs with some pretty effective off-speed stuff.
It may be frustrating to watch a player like Rosario be overaggressive and contribute to getting himself out, but it's a very hard game, and the line between success and failure is quite thin. By the same token, as much as I have been impressed with Andrés Giménez, it's based on just over 100 plate appearances. I would have to see more from the kid before I'm certain he's even the short-term starting shortstop for this team, assuming that the Mets owned by Steve Cohen will spend and be contenders in 2021.
One thing I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do would be to trade for a shortstop, even if a very good one is available. The Mets have so many shortstop options with Rosario, Giménez, Guillorme and Ronny Mauricio. They have vital needs that lack in-house options, such as starting pitching. They have limited minor league impact talent to use plugging into their own Major League roster or as trade chips. Hopefully in a few years the Mets will have a strong and deep system that would allow for both, but for now they'd better make some very wise decisions with what little they have.
Rosario's little spurt at the end here will justify having acting GM Omar Minaya add him to a package to secure a + SP
ReplyDeleteMack: giving us a little humor here. Minaya as GM in any capacity is a joke. We've been down that road before. Don't forget he's part of the current management team and bears some responsibility for their poor decisions. Be honest, who would you rather have up with a RISP, Gimenez ir Rosario?
ReplyDeleteRds, Gimenez in an RISP spot. He will surely continue to get better, too.
ReplyDeleteI just want to see Gimenez for a bit longer, but he does already look like a better choice than Rosario.
ReplyDeleteTrue.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets do have depth questions to answer for 2021. But neither Amed nor Andres will hurt them at short. They are both very good. True, a team doesn't need two really good shortstops. But if this was the Mets biggest concern or problem...I am fine with either one really.
I mentioned what to be looking for in regards to the NY Mets starting rotation in 2021, namely a few year experienced lefty starter added in here. A proverbial "cannot miss" type would be nice.
ReplyDeleteMaybe someone like a Blake Snell would do Mets fans?
Think about it a moment. Sometime in 2021 second half, it would be deGrom, Snell, Syndergaard, Peterson, Oswalt or Szapucki one the five slot.
Could Steve C. be any happier with that? Now getting a Blake Snell caliber lefty starter would never be such an easy thing to accomplish. But impossible? Maybe not so.
The Mets have very good depth in which to deal from now. Go for it!
I like Mets SS Amed Rosario and his talent level a whole lot. He has what I call "natural explosiveness" and desire. At the end of 2019, I predicted Amed to start at the 2020 All Star Game. Then Covid19 hit.
ReplyDeleteHere's part of the problem maybe. The Mets only need one All Star level shortstop.
Amed is 24, with his entire career ahead of him. He has not even peaked yet. Then in waltzes another really good SS in Andres Gimenez, even younger at age 22. Amed has to hear the footsteps, even back two seasons ago regarding Gimenez. He hears the praise for Gimenez, people comparing the two. That's at age 22 for Amed, who was just growing into his MLB legs. It has to affect you people, but it did not show in 2019 with Amed. Pretty amazing.
Mark my words here, both Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez will be in the All Star shortstop competition every single season for a long, long time to come, no matter where they are playing. They are both literally that good!
Let them play hard and eat cake.
Five pitcher down IR right now.
ReplyDeleteFour starters. MAN. And you guys want to blame the GM?
Not true.
Cohen in. Brodie stays. Luis stays.
Why?
A: Smooth, seamless transition. We need this now.
A few smart trades. One for a new young-ish high end (maybe lefty) starter. And Bingo. Parade time.
Social drinking replaces social distancing. It's a proverbial festivus for the rest of us, I tell ya'. I can literally smell the lilacs.
Making 2020 WS Predictions
ReplyDeleteAL Chicago White Sox vs. LA Dodgers
Why you ask?
Chicago and Dodger's starting rotations. Other teams are close. But to mine eyes I see this.
Teams in the hunt right now have one basic thing in common, their offense. Hit for average, hit with men on base, hit the homerun shots. They all pretty much can do that.
But to be the very best, a team has got to have the best pitching as well. That's why the adage, "Pitching always wins the big games."
Tomorrow, lets talk mascots shall we.
Don't discount the Padres Anonymous. They look real good - 8 in a row. Tatis Jr. is the best SS all around right now.
ReplyDelete