Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: 1B

Everyone is quivering with anticipation of what the Mets might do during this off-season assuming that Steve Cohen is approved as the new owner of the ballclub.  Some are looking for the improvements to the scouting and analytics.  Others are looking for bidding on first class free agents.  Still others are expressing the need to engage in trades to help improve the roster.  No one knows what exactly to expect, but that third category -- trades -- is one worth considering.

 

As the GM (whomever it will be) examines the club, he'll look at statistics, trends, fielding (yes, really!), baserunning, throwing and attitude.  Some players tip the scales heavily in one metric more so than the others and it's up to the person in charge to determine how to assemble a better roster.  Assume for the moment that you are brand new to Citifield and it's the first time you look at the current composition of the roster.  What would you conclude?

 

At first base the team has three players suitable to start at 1st base.  The incumbent, Pete Alonso, had a major sophomore slump in this mini-season.  Some shake it off as never getting accustomed to the rotation between the bag and DH.  Others think pitchers adjusted to his weaknesses.  Others think that he was feeling the pressure of Dom Smith's success.  The fact is he's a $1 million ballplayer with a 53 HR season on his resume and you have to consider if he's going to rebound from his 2020 forgettable performance, then he's a bargain and he's still considered a core piece of the fan appreciation for the team.  

 

On the other hand, would he be someone desirable to another team if floated in a trade proposal?  Most clubs would salivate at the possibility of gaining a true slugger at a bargain price and are willing to write off the come down season after the Rookie of the Year caliber delivery in 2019.  The question is whether the fans would revolt more than whatever value you could get for Alonso in trade.  Bear in mind you generally want to trade off a high mark season, not a low mark.  Trading high nets greater returns.  

 

Then there is the case of Dom Smith.  He came from out of nowhere in 2019 to finish with highly impressive stats that would have amounted to a 30+ HR campaign with .282 batting average while struggling in LF and rarely getting the opportunity to play his natural position of 1B where his reputation is well above average for defense.  This season he floated between 1B, LF and DH while getting nearly an identical number of ABs, increasing his RBI output significantly and boosting his batting average to .316.  

Trading Smith would be an example of trying to sell high on someone, but fans might revolt just as much to his departure.  He should make around $2 million in 2021 and the fact he's left handed might make him more attractive to other teams.  Putting him in LF means sacrificing an awful lot of defense out there, and at this point there's no guarantee that the DH will be embraced by the National League full time for 2021.  

 

Finally there's J.D. Davis.  He came to the Mets with a reputation for playing the two corner infield positions and occasionally in the outfield.  Given his 2019 performance, his acquisition looked like a true steal for Brodie Van Wagenen.  Unfortunately this season he didn't amount to nearly as much with the bat and again struggled badly in the outfield.  He was a little better at 3B but not in the star quality with the glove.  He'd likely do the least damage at 1B, but it's a might crowded over there.  This year he was up nearly as many times as Smith, but only hit 6 HRs and drove in 19 with an average of just .247.  Those numbers reflect his Houston Astro production and as a talent evaluator you need to determine if 2019 or 2020 was the real Davis.  

 

So, going into 2021, who is the daily assignee to play first base?  You could make arguments for or against any of them.  It would seem that Smith has the greater overall package of abilities than the other two right handed hitting options, but it's also true he would be likely the most desired by other teams.  A full time DH would solve the "where do they play" problem afflicting all three of these options, but until that happens, tough decisions will have to be made.