Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: 2B

Yesterday we examined the prospect of who would play 1st base and who might be dealt away to address other team needs.  There's no clear right or wrong answer since Pete Alonso has the greater full season accomplishment, Rookie of the Year and NL All Star Home Run Derby champion on his resume.  Dominic Smith had the far brighter year in 2020, but it was again just north of 200 ABs and not a full season's worth of accomplishments.  By the same token, as rosy as J.D. Davis was last year, he dropped considerably in 2020.  You could pick whomever you like and deal whomever you like and not be wrong.  Many folks say keep all three, but without a DH that seriously limits both playing time and defense.

 

I approached a group of Mets fans to discuss this concept of who is best at each position and the topic of 2nd base became heated pretty quickly.  Despite his solid accomplishments in 2020, many of the fans in the group were still vexed by Brodie Van Wagenen's trade in 2019 when the two pieces coming to the east coast were frankly awful.  

As a refresher, Cano hit .316 with 10 HRs and 30 RBIs in just 171 ABs.  Extrapolate those numbers over the course of a full season and that's a 30+ HR hitter with 90+ RBIs while hitting well north of .300.  Ummm...isn't that the reason he was brought here in the first place?

 

The issue with trading away Robinson Cano is two fold.  First you have a no-trade clause that would require his waiver voluntarily or would necessitate his acceptance of having it bought out from under him.  Had you requested that move last year when everyone hated his guts, he likely would have agreed quickly to its elimination.  However, after a solid season in 2020, he's probably feeling a lot more at home back in New York where his career flourished in the Bronx. 

 

The second potential stumbling block is the salary he is being paid for the chronologically latter stages of his career.  He played the abbreviated 2020 season at age 38 and is on the hook contractually for ages 38, 39 and 40.  For those elder statesman years he's earning a salary of $24 million per season.  Now if he hit over .300 with 30+ HRs and a lot of RBIs, that's not unreasonable, but a very real fear would exist in fellow ballclubs about age-related decline or injuries that would prevent him from delivering what he's capable of doing.  

 

The Mariners agreed during the deal that sent them Jared Kelenic and others to kick in $20 million towards Cano's pay.  That Starbucks-town payment drops the effective salary to $20 million per season.  Some would say that the elimination of salaries for Anthony Swarzak and Jay Bruce should be factored in as well, but any acquiring team isn't benefitting from that part of the transaction and would focus strictly on the $20 million per year for the next three years.

 

So, would the Mets attempt to pay down some of Cano's salary in order to make him attractive to an AL team who could shift him to DH as he ages and his defense declines even further?  Let's say, for example, that the Mets add a $5 million per season payment to the acquiring team, effectively reducing his cost to $15 million per year.  That number would seem quite palatable to an AL team and free up $45 million in salary obligation that could be put towards other needs.

 

If you did make such a deal, who then takes over at 2B?  The obvious candidates would include Jeff McNeil who was the regular second baseman prior to Cano's arrival, Amed Rosario is you are convinced Andres Gimenez' bat will match what he delivers with the glove, or Luis Guillorme (who is likely a solid backup rather than a starter).  

 

Of these three options, Jeff McNeil would likely be most folks' first choice as he's shown offensive and defensive abilities to endear him to the fans.  However, a strong case could be made for Amed Rosario moving to a less challenging defensive position which would still keep 3B open for McNeil (as well as LF).  The real issue there is what Gimenez could do over the course of 162 games.  He was never a bowl-you-over kind of offensive player and during 2020 you could see his hitting decline as the season progressed and he played more frequently.  

 

Of course, this type of deal could be the prelude to an unforeseen player trade or free agent signing that would usurp the new found funds.  The real question is whether the Mets are better off keeping or trading Robinson Cano.  He could shift to 3B to allow a more skilled defensive player to man 2B, but age will slowly catch up to him no matter where on the field he plays.  It may be smarter to move the man coming off a hot season a year too soon rather than be stuck paying for him two years too late.