Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: OF

Recently Tom Brennan cataloged the fantastic job the Mets outfielders did with their bats during this recently concluded (for the Mets, anyway) 2020 season.  There's no disputing how productive they were whether it was Michael Conforto, Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil or J.D. Davis out there.  The has-beens and also rans performed like, well, spare parts at best.  None would be missed, but the question remains if the Mets outfield is what it should be.

 

How many of you remember the days of people like Dave Kingman, Todd Hundley, Roger Cedeno and others attempting to portray major league quality outfielders?  Frankly the defensive shortcomings of many of this potent group of hitters sadly reminds me of those days.  Yes, it's wonderful to have the offensive exploits of a Dom Smith out there, but how much of it is he giving back to the opposing team while not reminding anyone of Endy Chavez or Juan Lagares with his glove?

 

So, going forward, do the Mets settle for a "close your eyes and hope for the best" outfield, or do they finally make defense a part of their framework for success?  Right now they do not have a viable centerfielder and that would appear to be priority number one for fixing this mess.  

Everyone assumes Michael Conforto will be signed to an extended contract to remain with the Mets and not allow him to test free agency after 2021.  That much assures a right fielder.  Then you have a variety of options for left field, including McNeil, Smith, Davis and Nimmo.  That's a bit too much thunder without enough leather. 

 

Yes, it's possible to relocate McNeil to the infield.  It's also possible to relocate Davis to the infield.  That would leave Nimmo (acceptable in a corner position) or Smith (the best first baseman on the club fumbling in left field).  No matter how you slice it, some trades need to be made and the most likely departing folks would include Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis.  Hear me out.

 

Nimmo is left handed.  The Mets are flush with left handed hitting.  He is an on-base machine.  Yes, that metric benefits the Mets, but it would also benefit other ballclubs just as well.  He's not yet into the high money strata, so his appeal to other teams would be pretty high.  His smile and work ethic suggest he would be an asset.

 

Davis is a little harder to justify for a decent trade return.  Yes, he was awesome in 2019 but merely OK in 2020.  His priority to be moved ranks below that of Smith since he's a right handed power hitter and could serve admirably on the bench in a reserve role or could be shifted to his so-called natural position of third base.  Still, an AL team in particular might be interested in what his contact and power could be like if he played regularly as their new DH.  He earns next to nothing and that fact often usurps productivity when clubs like Minnesota, for example, are weighing metrics on who they want on their team.

 

Now comes the tough one.  Do you dangle Dom Smith out there in trade proposals?  He should command major interest in just about every other major league team which makes you wonder if that's the fact, why would the Mets want to get rid of him?  I think you use that interest level to drive up his price.  Whether he's used to get a starting pitcher number two or a centerfielder or a catcher is still possible, but it would take a mighty heavy package of talent returning to the Mets to make this move acceptable.  

 

As far as the outfield goes, everyone is eyeballing the Astros' George Springer.  The PED wonder does have it all, but he'll also want to be paid that way.  He can hit for power, field with solid if not Gold Glove capability and he's leaving Houston while earning $21 million.  That's a lot of coin and his price is going to go up both in terms of annual price and the number of years of commitment.  Would you be willing to pay $140 million for five years at $28 million per year?  I'd have to think long and hard about that one.  He'll already be over 30 and it's likely in the latter part of his deal his performance will begin to suffer.

 

Some advocate making a pitch to the former Boston Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.  He doesn't usually hit for much of an average with a career mark of just .239, but that performance is accompanied by an annual average of 18 HRs and 70 RBIs with Gold Glove defense.  His 2020 salary was $11 million and while he will look for an increase in salary for his new team, it's not going to be Springer level.  He might be had for four years at $16 million per season, much like Curtis Granderson earned for the Mets when he was surprisingly picked up for the tail end of his career.  

 

Two Wilpon-style acquistions in free agency worth considering are Kevin Pillar and Enrique Hernandez.  Both have 20 HR power and both play excellent defense.  Neither would cost much more than $7 million or so per year and they are coincidentally both right handed hitters.  Mets fans would probably yawn at these options, but if the money saved here can instead go towards a catcher or more pitching then it would make some sense.  

 

Trade possibilities exist as well.  One player I would very much be interested in acquiring is the Milwaukee Brewers' Lorenzo Cain.  He is entering the final two years of his five-year deal in which he will earn $17 million and $18 million respectively.  That's not a huge sum for what he delivers with power, speed and defense.  Rumors are hot and heavy that the Brewers would listen if someone made a pitch and given what he's going to get paid, it shouldn't take a lot of player capital to acquire him as it frees up $35 million for Milwaukee payroll obligations.  The short duration of his remaining deal during his age 35 and 36 seasons give the Mets time to develop or acquire a long term solution who is younger and cheaper.  I would hold the gun to the Brewers' head and ask them to kick in some money towards paying down that salary to bring it closer to the $12 million or so per year range.  

 

I'm sure there are many other young and appealing center fielders out there like Mike Trout or Cody Bellinger, but not even Steve Cohen's money is enough to bring them to New York except in the visiting dugout.  Work with what's out there and can be acquired if you're really looking to sure up the defense in center field.  Don't be afraid to deal away major league ballplayers instead of bankrupting your minor leagues of your best prospects. It's not just a one-year solution the Mets need, but a blueprint for a competitive future.