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10/24/20

Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: OF



Recently Tom Brennan cataloged the fantastic job the Mets outfielders did with their bats during this recently concluded (for the Mets, anyway) 2020 season.  There's no disputing how productive they were whether it was Michael Conforto, Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil or J.D. Davis out there.  The has-beens and also rans performed like, well, spare parts at best.  None would be missed, but the question remains if the Mets outfield is what it should be.

 



How many of you remember the days of people like Dave Kingman, Todd Hundley, Roger Cedeno and others attempting to portray major league quality outfielders?  Frankly the defensive shortcomings of many of this potent group of hitters sadly reminds me of those days.  Yes, it's wonderful to have the offensive exploits of a Dom Smith out there, but how much of it is he giving back to the opposing team while not reminding anyone of Endy Chavez or Juan Lagares with his glove?

 

So, going forward, do the Mets settle for a "close your eyes and hope for the best" outfield, or do they finally make defense a part of their framework for success?  Right now they do not have a viable centerfielder and that would appear to be priority number one for fixing this mess.  


Everyone assumes Michael Conforto will be signed to an extended contract to remain with the Mets and not allow him to test free agency after 2021.  That much assures a right fielder.  Then you have a variety of options for left field, including McNeil, Smith, Davis and Nimmo.  That's a bit too much thunder without enough leather. 

 

Yes, it's possible to relocate McNeil to the infield.  It's also possible to relocate Davis to the infield.  That would leave Nimmo (acceptable in a corner position) or Smith (the best first baseman on the club fumbling in left field).  No matter how you slice it, some trades need to be made and the most likely departing folks would include Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis.  Hear me out.

 



Nimmo is left handed.  The Mets are flush with left handed hitting.  He is an on-base machine.  Yes, that metric benefits the Mets, but it would also benefit other ballclubs just as well.  He's not yet into the high money strata, so his appeal to other teams would be pretty high.  His smile and work ethic suggest he would be an asset.

 

Davis is a little harder to justify for a decent trade return.  Yes, he was awesome in 2019 but merely OK in 2020.  His priority to be moved ranks below that of Smith since he's a right handed power hitter and could serve admirably on the bench in a reserve role or could be shifted to his so-called natural position of third base.  Still, an AL team in particular might be interested in what his contact and power could be like if he played regularly as their new DH.  He earns next to nothing and that fact often usurps productivity when clubs like Minnesota, for example, are weighing metrics on who they want on their team.

 

Now comes the tough one.  Do you dangle Dom Smith out there in trade proposals?  He should command major interest in just about every other major league team which makes you wonder if that's the fact, why would the Mets want to get rid of him?  I think you use that interest level to drive up his price.  Whether he's used to get a starting pitcher number two or a centerfielder or a catcher is still possible, but it would take a mighty heavy package of talent returning to the Mets to make this move acceptable.  

 



As far as the outfield goes, everyone is eyeballing the Astros' George Springer.  The PED wonder does have it all, but he'll also want to be paid that way.  He can hit for power, field with solid if not Gold Glove capability and he's leaving Houston while earning $21 million.  That's a lot of coin and his price is going to go up both in terms of annual price and the number of years of commitment.  Would you be willing to pay $140 million for five years at $28 million per year?  I'd have to think long and hard about that one.  He'll already be over 30 and it's likely in the latter part of his deal his performance will begin to suffer.



 

Some advocate making a pitch to the former Boston Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.  He doesn't usually hit for much of an average with a career mark of just .239, but that performance is accompanied by an annual average of 18 HRs and 70 RBIs with Gold Glove defense.  His 2020 salary was $11 million and while he will look for an increase in salary for his new team, it's not going to be Springer level.  He might be had for four years at $16 million per season, much like Curtis Granderson earned for the Mets when he was surprisingly picked up for the tail end of his career.  

 

Two Wilpon-style acquistions in free agency worth considering are Kevin Pillar and Enrique Hernandez.  Both have 20 HR power and both play excellent defense.  Neither would cost much more than $7 million or so per year and they are coincidentally both right handed hitters.  Mets fans would probably yawn at these options, but if the money saved here can instead go towards a catcher or more pitching then it would make some sense.  

 



Trade possibilities exist as well.  One player I would very much be interested in acquiring is the Milwaukee Brewers' Lorenzo Cain.  He is entering the final two years of his five-year deal in which he will earn $17 million and $18 million respectively.  That's not a huge sum for what he delivers with power, speed and defense.  Rumors are hot and heavy that the Brewers would listen if someone made a pitch and given what he's going to get paid, it shouldn't take a lot of player capital to acquire him as it frees up $35 million for Milwaukee payroll obligations.  The short duration of his remaining deal during his age 35 and 36 seasons give the Mets time to develop or acquire a long term solution who is younger and cheaper.  I would hold the gun to the Brewers' head and ask them to kick in some money towards paying down that salary to bring it closer to the $12 million or so per year range.  

 

I'm sure there are many other young and appealing center fielders out there like Mike Trout or Cody Bellinger, but not even Steve Cohen's money is enough to bring them to New York except in the visiting dugout.  Work with what's out there and can be acquired if you're really looking to sure up the defense in center field.  Don't be afraid to deal away major league ballplayers instead of bankrupting your minor leagues of your best prospects. It's not just a one-year solution the Mets need, but a blueprint for a competitive future.  

9 comments:

  1. If true, the dropping of the NL DH for 2021 would really screw the Mets DH and tick me off. As noted in a recent article, even in the year of sub-par Pete, the DH spot was on pace for 43 doubles and 41 HRs over a full 162 games.

    I like Nimmo, and would love him to stay, and I would have been happy to muddle through 2021 with virtually the same defensively-flawed offensive squad except for catcher, but that was with the DH. Without a DH, just too many bats vying for the same slots. Something has to give.

    Springer would be expensive but good. Even if Cohen boosts payroll by $100 million in 2021, there will be so many holes to fill, though. In that sense, Cain would be very interesting. And trade a lefty OF for some great pitching talent.

    Aside from the offense and Jake and Edwin, this team needs an overhaul. We are light years from being the Dodgers. Only $$ will get us near there soon.

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  2. Mets aren't light years from being good.

    Not a fan of Springer in CF; he's a classic guy who needs to shift to a corner, soon. I could see that Sandy would like him a lot.

    I really, really wanted Cain when he was available some years back. A shame the Brewers got him over New York. He was exactly what we needed -- and at a time when it was clear we had nobody in the system.

    Jimmy

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  3. Jimmy, do you have evidence that Springer "needs to shift to a corner soon"? Cain is 6 years older and still playing an effective centerfield. Why the doubt on Springer?

    My proposal is 6 years $150M for Springer with a player opt-opt after 4. Gives him some incentive to play well in years 3 and 4 and try to get one more big contract to end his career (maybe as a corner outfielder at that point), and the Mets did draft a couple of promising centerfielders in the 2020 draft that will be ready by 2024 or 20205.

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  4. You know I’m all for trading Nimmo and Davis for the right player back. I think they would be great additions in a Lindor trade. The Indians could use both players. I have a feeling one of Sandy’s first moves he will make is probably to trade JD because that wasn’t his guy its BVW’s. To make up for the horrible trades he made (Seattle trade) giving up on Sandy’s guys he picked. It would be a tit for tat move. Sandy would want his finger prints all over the team not someone else’s?

    I also feel an offensive minded corner outfielder could be gotten any year in free agency, so if you can trade either one of these 2 to sure up another position of need I would do so. We are trading a surplus.

    I am all for going big on Springer. He crushes it in the playoffs, plays good defense and fills an up the middle position that we shouldn’t have a problem spending money on. Also if his defense declines a bit in a few years, we may have a capable youngster coming up to take over CF by then?

    Even though I said earlier that offensive corner outfielders can be had in free agency, I would still give Conforto a new contract. He has shown that he is a legit bat, plays pretty decent RF and he is a home grown talent that can handle playing in NY. Sign him up.

    A little off topic but I also hope that Cohen also brings in a new dynamic to our team by signing some of our young players with early long term contracts like the Braves did with Acuna. Alonso, Smith and McNiel would be great examples.

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  5. Springer is a right handed bat the Mets can use in CF. He still is a plus CF defensively - as opposed to Nimmo who is one of the lowest rated defenders in baseball. The Astros did put Marisnick late in games in CF in 2019 so that tells you how the Astros rate Springer's defense.

    The Sandy/Cohen Mets may not want to invest $25+ million over the next 6-8 years on a 30+ year old player but at least Cano will be off the books in 3 years and not sure how many top years deGrom has left.

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  6. Responding to Remember69: No, I don't have evidence about Springer, other than he's a big guy, not necessarily fleet, and 31 years old. There's a long history of that type moving to the corner. I think the "good" defense will get worse.

    Nimmo's offense in CF is very good; it's the defense that isn't satisfactory. If we are going to replace him, I'd like it to address defense.

    That said, obviously Springer is a good player. Mets have so many defensive deficiencies, I don't think they can upgrade them all in one off-season. If they can get better in other positions, then average defense in CF would be fine.

    * I am of the believe than Nimmo is underrated as an offensive player. A leadoff man who gets on-base at .400 is a huge asset to any lineup. He never gives away an at-bat.

    * Brodie had back luck with Marisnick. He was, I thought, a deft signing: The defensive outfielder who can play CF and a RH bat -- at a low price. Fast, too. I thought he would have pushed for playing time. Instead, he was basically hurt all season. He could have, and should have, played a big role.

    Jimmy

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  7. Jimmy, agree with a lot of your comments, but to break them down, I think centerfield defense is the top priority this offseason. Catcher is a close second, with third base followed by left field rounding out the top four. First base is set with Smith and Alonso, with Smith obviously the better defender, but Alonso is not going anywhere. Likewise second base is Cano's with Guillorme as a capable late inning replacement. My personal opinion at this point is to use Gimenez at shortstop - that defensive problem is already solved, and Conforto is the right fielder.

    Now how to fix: I agree that we cannot fix all positions in one off season, and I don't think we would want them to. They do have pitchers to worry about as well, but I think Springer and McCann signings would fix the up the middle defense and should be a reasonable buy for a large market team.

    My other suggestion is to trade with the Cubs for Kris Bryant to shore up third base (My proposed trade is Matz, Davis, and lower ranked prospect for Bryant and a mid-ranked prospect). Left field would be shared by Nimmo and Smith, with Smith rotating between LF and 1B (and DH if they retain it). I like the idea of signing Jurickson Profar as the 4.5th outfielder.

    There is a bit more to my entire plan, but that is the gist of the 'defense' view of it.

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  8. Is McNeil a capable leftfielder so that if Nimmo is traded he can get playing time. I know he is not a very good third baseman. I think the Mets should go after Arenado from Colorado. Dangle Nimmo or Rosario. Arenado has the NL gold glove for third basemen in every year he has been in the bigs.

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  9. And dangle Rosario only for other positions of need (i.e., SP, CF, C) since it appears that Gimenez has won the ss job. But don't trade the farm. Spend some free agent money. Additionally, why do we need to keep both Alonso and Davis. I would dangle both (but only trade one) at this point and see what top level pitching or catching we can get. Obviously these 2 are DH candidates on a team trying to improve its defense.

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