No, the Struggle is NOT the way when it comes to winning baseball!
I remember last year at this time that the season had just ended and fireballing closer Edwin Diaz was roundly and soundly hated. People everywhere just wanted to get rid of this...this...this Edwin Diaz. Uggh! They wanted to cast him into utter darkness where there is weeping and gnashing of teeth.
That is where true discernment is required.
Did the individual (in this case the man nicknamed Sugar) just have a terrible season, but still have great skills and the capacity for a rebound season, or was the dude washed up and in need of being discarded? Yes.
Or perhaps needed to pitch in less of a pressure cooker to succeed? No.
Turned out that most are now happy there was no Sugar fire sale after 2019.
To repeatedly beat a dead horse, Travis d'Arnaud was gotten rid of far too quickly, and the cost of that mistake was enormous:
His presence on the Braves and not Mets frankly cost them a place in the playoffs in 2020, and probably also cost them a playoff appearance in 2019 as well, as Tomas Nido's invisible offense in 2019 could have been replaced by d'Arnaud's potent 2019 bat.
Making knee-jerk discard moves to make yourself feel better is not a wise baseball strategy.
We go into this off-season after another losing season, a not-so-fine Mets tradition. When you lose, the urge to discard is strong and can be overwhelming. "HURRY! DO SOMETHING!"
But it is a time when cold, clear, objective calculus is needed, not emotional "throw out the rubbish thinking" - because many a time, it’s your so-called rubbish that is actually worth a whole heck of a lot. How many of you threw out your old baseball cards, only to realize now that they're worth a lot? Same principle here.
STUGGLERS WHO SHOULD REBOUND:
Pete Alonso is one guy who no one would’ve gotten rid of after 2019, but some were calling for his departure at the end of 2020, or at least slightly prior to his strong finish. Pete had a mostly awful 2020 season, with intermittent bursts of what makes people think he can be great. After all he did manage to hit 16 home runs in a 60 game season (a 43 HR pace over 162 games) despite having a very off season.
Now, if the NL for some reason decides that the DH should not be kept, then I think considering moving Pete and keeping the superior fielding and excellent hitting Dom Smith instead might make a lot of sense. Dom could be an extra base hitting .300+ machine for years to come...Pete won't get anywhere near .300, from where's I'm sitting.
But even then, I would only move Pete at the right price. The right price being extremely high. The man has Ruthian power (or should I say that Babe Ruth had Petey Power?) and Pete has tremendous gate appeal and charisma - that alone is worth a lot. And the likelihood of Pete having a bounce back season in 2021, like Sugar did in 2020, is high.
Some players take stupid pills, but I don’t think Peter is one bit stupid. I think Pete fully realizes that he has adjustments to make. Stop chasing low and outside, and become lethal again. And I think that Pete will make those adjustments.
I see no reason why, over the course of a full 162 game season, that Pete can’t hit 50 again. Heck, his career so far is on a 50 homer in 162 games pace, and he is just so gosh-darned strong that what would be a 30 home run season for some other slugger is a 50 home run season for him; the parks are just too small for Pete to not hit a ton of home runs.
JD Davis? “Why shouldn't JD rebound?” asked Charles Barkley and Dennis Rodman. Yeah, why not? His 2020 .247/.371/.389 split was a disappointment, as was his 7 for 42 putrid hitting with RISP. He did slide late, though, to drop to those numbers.
But his 2019 split of.307/.369/.527 was pretty incredible. He also hit a lot lower in 2019 with RISP (.257) than otherwise, so he does have something else to prove in that regard. But he did have a slightly higher OBP in 2020 than in 2019, so I think his 2021 split will fall somewhere in between 2019 and 2020, which to me says: retain him for at least one more season.
AMED ROSARIO? How do you spell "regress"? After the All Star Break in 2019, Amed was rocking at .319/.351/.453. Then cratered in 2020.
He did go 15 for 41 in September 2020, but was gosh-awful in July and August. Zero steals, few walks, and so-so defense.
Losing teams have to make SOME changes, and the Mets have TWO OTHER viable 2021 options for shortstop...fine rookie Andres Gimenez, and offensive surprise in 2020 Luis Guillorme, who is also great defensively like Gimenez, in case Gimenez regresses. So, if you ask me, I bite the bullet and move him...realizing Rosario could suddenly break through starting in 2021...but I don't think so - and my patience is gone...so Rosey goes in a trade.
Wilson Ramos? Let me break this to you VERY...VERY,,,SLOWLY. He gets slower every year. And his bat was MIA in 2020. I have no confidence that his decline is not permanent - and he is lousy defensively, to boot.
I would therefore do whatever it takes to get Mr. Realmuto to catch, and let Wilson continue his career elsewhere.
That is it folks - your thoughts?
Next edition?
Struggling pitchers who should stay - or go away.
Good analysis, Tom. I agree with all your points, except the final one.
ReplyDeleteSure, if Realmuto were here, we'd be a better team, but his demands strain credulity. He's the best C in baseball right now, but he's not a Gary Carter/Johnny Bench, and a budget-stretching 4+ years is not worth considering.
We need SPs and a CFer, and even a billionaire has a budget. Spend big on Bauer and someone like Stroman or Tanaka, sign or trade for a stellar defender with a decent bat for CF, and get McCann or someone similar behind the plate.
If by some unlikely chance DJ LeMahieu goes FA, I'd gladly give him contract similar to what Realmuto is looking for. He's ot only a superstar with the bat, he instantly upgrades the D, either at 3B or (my preference) 2B, with Cano moving to 3B.
Another plus, getting him creates a bigger IF surplus, making it possible to trade JDD or even McNeil IF the right price is offered for them.
But Realmuto doesn't = Rightfit.
Bill, great points - but what if Cohen is willing to take the payroll to $300 million?
ReplyDeleteHis budget might be bigger than we're used to thinking about - he's probably in a Dodgers budget mindset.
I still think the Mets need to consider whether to let bygones be bygones with Stroman. I think his bailing out was suspect, and boy, could the Mets have used him in 2020.
It'll take awhile to let it sink in that we will have an owner (almost but lets get this done MLB) with the team his top priority AND he's a Met fan NOT a Dodger fan. Look could we have picked a better new owner....don't think so as I don't think Gates, Buffett or Besos are Met fans but dam we so badly need a new direction. As far as the Realmuto debate goes I am comfortable in the knowledge that the new front office, whatever that will be, will make the right decision's and when was the last time we could say that? Tom I would love to talk with you sometime my email is: seagren@verizon.net just let me know. Thanks
ReplyDeleteGood song for your article is "Should I stay or should I go" by the Clash
ReplyDeleteGary - thanks.
ReplyDeleteI am despite appearances terribly busy and try to just keep it to banging out articles at hyper-speed and replying to comments on line when I can.
Tom, good article. I agree with almost all of it. Certainly Diaz is a keeper, Amed is past his last chance, Ramos is out, and the jury is out on JD. I don't have an issue with Realmuto and would at least like to 'kick the tires'. I don't know where his market is going to end, but $200M is way too much. If it gets there, McCann is the better option, while pursuing Springer to play centerfield and springing for some starting pitching. (Stroman is at the top of the list (qualifying offer?) while T. Walker would be a good #3 or #4 option.
ReplyDeleteOn another site I posted my 2020-2021 offseason action. I'll summarize a couple of my 'bold' moves. (1) Jeff McNeil and Robert Gsellman to Cleveland for Zach Plesac (a couple minor leaguers are also in the mix). (2) Steven Matz and J.D. Davis to Chicago for Kris Bryant. If anyone is interested. I can pull up the rest of my lengthy 'play GM' for a day piece.
Remember1969, ''I love McNeil but this dude Plesac could cure a lot of pitching ills around here. I would explore that trade.
ReplyDeleteSimilarly, Matz and Davis for Bryant could be attractive to both teams. Maybe a change of scenery fixes the bewildering Stevie, and Davis is far cheaper salary-wise than Bryant, so Chicago may consider that Davis in their park could provide them similar offense to what they get from Bryant at a discount.
Remember1969, first I'd want to know if Kris Bryant is damaged goods. He had a horrible 2020, ending with 4 homers, but had only 2 going into the final 2 games.
ReplyDeleteI saw this article, which may (or may not) explain his decline:
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/9/15/21436149/kris-bryant-hit-in-the-head-2018-stats-before-after
Tom. That is interesting. I knew Bryant was coming off a down year (and then some), but did not know/remember that he had been beaned. That can take quite a while to psychologically adjust to, sometimes never. It would be interesting to see defensive metrics before and after as well. One other point that I wondered about was his rumored poor relationship with Chili Davis while Davis was the hitting coach with the Cubs. On the surface, I thought that the deal might be intriguing to look at.
ReplyDelete