In the first part of my two part series on this subject on Tuesday, regarding the Mets possibly acquiring J.T. Realmuto or going with another alternative in 2021, it was noted by me in that Part I articlethat Realmuto was catching, over his first several full seasons, just 75% of his team's games.
It was also noted that, as the great Mike Piazza declined in his 30s in terms of number of games behind the plate each year, the same was more likely than not to happen to Mr. Realmuto as well, and perhaps he would start at catcher in just 60% to 70% over that contract timeframe.
So, a key element in any such decision is:
What can a team like the Met expect out of its back up catchers, who most likely will catch dozens of games in 2021?
In that regard, I looked back at the last 10 full seasons, 2010 through 2019, to see what the past data told us might be expected in that regard.
In those 10 years, the Mets used six different starting catchers (Ramos, d'Arnaud, Plawecki, Thole, Barajas, and Buck) and because the caliber of those starters overall were cumulatively significantly less than All Star quality and because of injuries, the starters for those 10 years managed (per Baseball Reference statistics) to compile just 3,212 at bats, while back up catcher compiled nearly as many ABs (2,830).
And in those 10 years, there were 16 back up catchers, some multiple times, resulting in an average 2.8 back up catchers used per season.)
The starters hit a combined .246 with 148 doubles, 97 HRs and 412 RBIs in those 3,212 at bats. Not great, not “Piazza”, but pretty decent.
But our focus here is on back up catcher quality.
In their 2,830 at bats, over the 10 full years, the back up catchers hit just .211, with just 114 doubles, 66 HRs, and 298 RBIs. TEN YEARS! That stinks!
That is quite a drop off from the starter catchers, huh?
So if you get 70% of your games with a Grade A Realmuto, and 30% of your games with cheap catchers that hit .211 with limited power and run production, is that your best course of action? Not so sure.
My Conclusion?
Unless you can back up Realmuto with a QUALITY backup catcher (or catchers), you might well be better off pursuing a costly but talented tandem like Salvador Perez and James McCann, if at all possible. I think for the same price (or likely less), you'd get much better overall production from those two for all 162 games.
That is just an off the cuff suggestion.
How doable that might be, I do not know.
Maybe they both want to be starters.
But you’re the GM....
What do you think?
Before you ponder trades, you have to decide who is going to be the GM. The current peddler-in-chief only seems to want to deal minor league help or make salary dumps. There isn't much traction for trading major league talent for major league talent. If he's back, I'd expect more of the same. If not, then all bets are off.
ReplyDeleteReese i think an overriding theme of the Mets' failures over the past dozen or so years is their failure to have really productive back up hitters and pitchers. Catcher is such an easy position to have an injury to a starter. If all you can bring up is AAA dreck, that's the way you miss the playoffs. They have to think, and do, much differently starting in 2021.
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