At that time the bottom-feeding Mets had no idea of the success Seaver would bring their franchise. He was a pure talent they’d never had before in the pitching rotation. His minor league season included a .500 record and a good 3.13 ERA but nothing eye popping about the strikeout totals or the great control he would exhibit.
As a rookie in 1967 he went 16-13 for a very bad team with a 2.76 ERA, good enough to earn him both an All Star berth and the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Over the course of his career he tallied eleven more All Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards and was ushered into the Hall of Fame with 98.8% of the votes.
I bring up the memories of Seaver because now the Mets are in a similar situation with infielder-turned-pitcher Jacob deGrom. Thus far he’s only won two Cy Young Awards and only been named to three All Star Games and also won the NL Rookie of the Year. He would have made a fourth All Star appearance had there been a game in 2020. He was rewarded with a contract Seaver never could have dreamed to collect. Therein lies the rub.
Many folks are not really aware that after the 2022 season deGrom has the right to opt out of his contract. He’s slated to earn $35 million for each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, so it’s hardly likely he would get much more anywhere else. The Mets have the deal structured to dip to $32.5 million for 2023 and hold an option for $32.5 million for 2024. During those two seasons he would be age 35 and 36 respectively. That’s a period during which pitchers (and position players) tend to deteriorate from their late 20s and early 30s prime period of production.
For comparison’s sake, Tom Seaver was a 2.55 ERA pitcher with a slanted winning record up through age 34 but in the latter stages of his career the ERA jumped to 3.67 and he was pitching to a 76-72 record. That’s not bad at all, but is it worth $32.5 million per season?
Consequently, while many people are reaching inside Steve Cohen’s wallet to spend his money to extend the deal to keep him a Met-for-life in the fashion of David Wright, more prudent folks might think the better move would be to find a trading partner after the 2021 season. That move would relieve the club of its $35 million burden for 2022 and $32.5 million salary obligation for 2023. The 2024 season is merely an option, not a buyout.
Now anyone old enough or who has read enough baseball history is well versed in the 1977 Midnight Massacre during which the Mets traded away both Tom Seaver, their best pitcher, and Dave Kingman, their best hitter, for what proved to be sketchy returns. No one has ever forgiven M. Donald Grant, Dick Young or anyone else who greased the pipes for Seaver’s exit.
The fact is that the same hostility could result from a Jacob deGrom deal. For the team it wasn’t just about the salary but also about the non-payroll aspect of keeping Seaver around. He meant more for the identity of the club and what it meant to be a Mets fan. Consequently the next home-grown stud, David Wright, was awarded a terrific contract despite his health issues which continued to get worse. The Mets obviously did not secure good value on that deal but the fans were kept happy.
So if you were the Mets and faced the prospect of losing deGrom for nothing in return after the 2022 season or trading him away as a good business move at the risk of losing the goodwill of the fans, what would you do? The businessman in me says it all depends on the long term look of the ball club and the return you would net for someone of deGrom’s caliber. It also is directly attached to the $67.5 million in salary relief if you traded him a year too soon.
While others might bandy about with opinions about how best to tap into the Cohen Coffers to sign top free agents, extend Michael Conforto, extend Noah Syndergaard, buy out younger ballplayers from their arbitration and free agent days, the fact is that the deGrom situation should be a top priority for the incoming front office personnel.
In a way, it’s a no-win situation as you could be stuck with a diminished deGrom for the latter segment of his career or you could deal him away while he’s still got at least one more top tier season in him.
Well, I guess that’s why the President, GM and owners all deal in the big bucks.
It is hard to imagine, even in the whacky world of baseball, that he would opt out. I could only see that if he continues to dominate, throws 32 starts and goes 10-9. They need to get him into the World Series.
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees managed to keep Jeter for his whole career. Even if Jake starts to dip at age 35, he may be the type that could pitch like a normal SP 2 or SP 3 into his late 30s. Maybe he agrees to something half as lucrative for 4 years beyond 35 or 3 years at a higher rate, including the option year.
A lot of innings must take place between now and then.
I just want to see the 2021 Mets have somewhat better offense, plus better defense and a much better pen. Get Jake to go 18-6 next year, win him another Cy, and make him happier. Happier is good.
I did an article a while ago noting that Whitey Ford in 1961 went 25-4, with a relatively (to Jake) high 3.21 ERA. It sure helped he pitched for the thunderous Yanks and did not have to pitch against them. Let's give Jake a big dose of that, even if we can't give him a full 1961 Yanks dose. A 20-3 season would really burnish his HOF credentials.
Spot on Tom. No way is he going to leave $32.5M on the table at age 33-34 with another potential $32.5M if he doesn't tank in 2023. And if I'm the Mets, no way do I trade him after 2021. For who he is and what he has done for this team, I don't throw him away. This is a non-issue for me.
ReplyDeleteI think the bigger issue facing the new front office right away is Syndergaard. It feels a lot like we could get into the Wheeler 20-20 hindsight bickering again with Thor. It doesn't look like they can trade him now with 1 year left (a la Lindor) as he hasn't pitched in a year, but in reality, what kind of a contract extension could you offer him now? If he comes back strong in June, do you trade him before the deadline? Do you work on an in-season extension? Do you let him get to the end of the year and offer him the qualifying offer?
I don't know the answer and unlike with deGrom, I really don't have a set opinion (yea, pretty weird for me, huh?) on Syndergaard.