Gunnar Hoglund
RHP 6-5 210 Ole Miss
Gunnar Hoglund isn’t going to give you the highlight reel radar guns, and he probably won’t be a strike out pitcher at the next level, but his advanced ability to pitch and throw strikes suggests he’s one of the safer bets to reach his big league starting pitcher ceiling. He may not be a top of the rotation arm, but he’s comfortably a piece most big league rotations could lean on for good innings; potentially as a #4 type guy.
This, of course, could all change should Hoglund show up to Oxford this fall pumping 94-95. If that were to happen, the narrative and archetype changes a bit. As it stands, Hoglund is probably fairly comfortably a Top 40 selection, but with a little added velo he’d likely further his discussion as a Top 20 pick.
3. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’4, 220 lbs. Born 12/17/1999. Hometown: Hudson, FL
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
Continuing the theme that has become apparent here, Gunnar Hoglund was yet another highly touted arm coming out of high school in the Tampa area, and the Pirates actually drafted him 36th overall. He didn’t sign, and now has the opportunity to beat that high selection in 2021. Hoglund was solid as a freshman in 2019, putting up a 5.29 ERA and an effective 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough schedule, then devoured his opponents in 2020 with a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 23.1 innings. At this point, he’s safely behind the big four prospects listed ahead of him here, but his floor is as high as any.
Hoglund’s selling point is his command, which is perhaps the best in the SEC given that he’s had more time to prove it than Jack Leiter. The fastball only sits around 90, but not for a lack of arm strength. He can touch 92 with very minimal effort, looking like he’s just playing catch, but when he does let loose, he has been clocked as high as 96. That easy, natural delivery enables Hoglund to hit his spots very consistently, with well above average command dating back to his high school days in Florida. Additionally, the 6’4″ right hander ditched a loopy 12-6 curveball for a tighter slider that has shown above average potential, giving him a second weapon with continued refinement. Lastly, there is a solid changeup as well, but Hoglund mainly pitches off his fastball.
On the surface, Hoglund looks like a one trick pony with plus command and average stuff. But having that 95-96 in his back pocket inspires a lot of confidence that his average velocity will tick up, and even a small improvement into perhaps the 90-93 range in 2021 will really help his draft stock. If he can refine either his slider or changeup into a true 55 grade pitch, that would help significantly as well. But even with his present stuff, I think the 6’4′, 220 pound righty really appeals to teams looking for a safe bet they know can be a #4 starter at the big league level.
12) Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
After being selected by the Pirates in the sandwich round in 2018, Hoglund chose not to sign and will be draft-eligible again in 2021 with a strong case to be a first round pick this time around. He has been deemed as one of the more projectable right handed pitchers for a while now, and his tall 6’5 frame is starting to fill out. He has added strength in Oxford, and after a topsy-turvy freshman year he added velocity and showed improved stuff in 2020. His fastball now sits in the 91-94 range, and it is a classic 4-seamer that he commands well to both sides of the plate. Hoglund’s heater is one that the analytically-inclined organizations will love. It has good spin data and the pitch’s rising action misses a lot of bats, especially up in the zone. He throws two distinct breaking balls right now, with the better offering being an above-average slider with traditional 10-4/11-5ish shape. The slider has sharp break that misses bats and he has shown a feel for landing it for strikes and putting below the zone to get hitters to chase. Hoglund’s curveball is a vertically-oriented pitch that he throws for strikes, but it is not as sharp as his slider. The curve is more for show, as he uses it to steal strikes and keep hitters off-balanced. Mechanically, Hoglund is sound with a clean motion and has elements of his motion that show the ability to generate velocity. He gets solid hip/torso separation that creates a whippy arm. Right now his scapular range of motion isn’t ideal, but in a professional strength program that may be improved. If it does, we could see him add even a touch more velocoity. His arm timing is good and doesn’t show any traditional red flags in his delivery. Hoglund is athletic and shows some of that athleticism on the mound, but he could show a deeper hip hinge. Thus far, Hoglund has developed nicely in college. If he shows the same improved stuff in 2021, he will be one of the first college arms off the board in June.
13. Gunner Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi State
Gunner Hoglund turned heads in just 23.1 innings in 2020. He already shows a plus fastball that sits 94 and an ability to spot the ball where he wants it with all of all his offerings. His curveball and slider also has depth, putting him put in the conversation of a top-five college arm in 2021. Hoglund has size (6’5, 210) and plays in the SEC — both of which can only work in his favor on draft day should he continue next season where he left off in 2020. Should Hoglund improve, whether in velocity or quality of offspeed offerings, he could jump a few of the more attractive college pitchers above him on this list.
Gunnar Hgland a second round pick?
ReplyDeleteHe will be gone by then.
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