2020 ended for the Mets with another non-appearance in the post-season.
Another disappointment after 2015’s thrilling surge to the World Series.
Why? Why again?
The hitting in 2020 wasn’t clutch, but otherwise was strong, and the defense was so-so.
But pair this offense up with the LA Dodgers' staff and the Mets probably go 38-22, not 26-34.
So, get off Pete’s back, for Pete's sake for not putting the team on his broad shoulders. It wasn’t the offense’s fault. It wasn't Pete's fault.
It was the pitchers' fault.
The pitching from Jake, Peterson, and Diaz was largely exceptional. Then there were a few decent performers.
Thereafter, a slew of horrid pitching.
As I noted recently, the 14 guys who had ERAs over 5.00 (14 guys!) allowed 7.4 runs per 9 innings. To no one’s surprise, given the deluge of runs they allowed, those 14 dudes went 8-26.
So, what went wrong with the pitching?
Well, it was brutal, no doubt, to lose both Syndergaard (TJS) and Stroman (hey, 'Stro, why jeopardize free agency by putting the team first?). The chance going in that there could be a starter injury should have compelled the Mets to go toe to toe with the Yankees for the ace Gerrit Cole.
But the Mets of course ran away screaming from the huge price tag, so a Yankee is what Cole naturally became. The Mets settled on Messrs. Wacha and Porcello, figuring one or both would do OK. And they did...opponents personally found them to be more than OK. They were awful.
Then Steve Matz crumbled under the pressure of having to succeed while others around him failed. Some players are winners, and others are...
Once Wacha, Porcello, and Matz failed, all of the other wannabe pitchers were awful.
In fact, those 14 pitchers with ERAs over 5.00 threw a staggering 48% of all Mets innings in 2020.
In 1963, by comparison, when the Mets lost 111 games, the Mets had just one starter (Jay Hook) and 2 hardly used relievers with ERAs over 5.00. Those three threw less than 15% of the Mets’ innings that year, compared to the 48% this year thrown by the over 5.00's. That’s how terribly bad most of the Mets 2020 staff was.
CONCLUSION
If you want to make the playoffs, you need your team to have quality in excess, but in the last 3 years, the cheap fill-in starters and back-of-the-pen arms have been simply pathetic.
That means, if you want to win, NOT BEING CHEAP. PERIOD.
Quality in excess is what it takes.
Houston, Atlanta, Tampa, and LA all have quality in excess.
No matter what it costs, the Mets need to stop scrimping on quality. It almost never works.
Quality in excess is an absolute necessity for a winning franchise. Because when you need to dip down and use your seventh reliever, for instance, you want him to be truly competent.
That concludes my 5 part series. Hope you got something out of it.
There are still people bemoaning the pen who list Seth Lugo as a starter this coming season. Fix two problems at once and return the over 5.00 starter to the pen where he excels.
ReplyDeleteReese, couldn't agree more. Someone may want to sing and do comedy, but if he is a better singer, he ought to stick to what works best. Lugo is career 2.53 pen ERA, 4.35 starter ERA. Easy decision.
ReplyDeleteAgree on Lugo, Reese.
ReplyDeleteTom, you are wrong about Pete. I mean, yes, the pitching was terrible. But so was Pete.
Remember, he inflated his numbers in the last 10 games of the season, after it was over for the Mets.
He batting cleanup on a team that had Nimmo with OBP of .404, McNeil w/ .383, Conforto with .412. There were runners on base all the time. Pete probably had more ABs with runners on base than just about anybody in baseball; raw RBI totals don't tell that story.
Pete did not produce. At all. He hit 2-33 vs. the Braves, for example. And he looked fat. And his bat looked slow, constantly unable to square up a good fastball.
Maybe he missed Chili Davis on the bench. Maybe he missed in-game video feed. But he was pure garbage up there for so many ABs.
Even with the late HRs, his WAR was .4. His defense terrible. In 2020, he was a disaster offensively and defensively.
Now that does not mean he will be a disaster moving forward. But the red flag is flying in the wind. He needs to make changes. I was impressed (and surprised) by his BA in 2019, that he wasn't just a big lumbering slugger. He needs to re-dedicate himself this offseason. Show up in shape and ready to play.
I would not trade him, by any means. But for me, the jury is still out. Because, again, I believe a poor defensive player can hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs and still not be a net positive. Or, at least, not much of one.
Dom Smith may be the better 1B, and it might not be close.
Jimmy
The Mets had some of the worst defense in baseball and that had to have a big effect on the pitching as well.
ReplyDeleteCano/Rosario/Davis/Ramos/Alonso are all below average fielders at their natural positions.
Nimmo/McNeil/Smith were below average fielders when playing out of their natural positions.
So most days almost the entire defense was suboptimal.
The Mets also ran themselves out of so many innings. I love McNeil but he was a big culprit there but he wasnt the only one.
With Cano being gone the Mets have a chance to have one of the best defenses in the league depending on who they acquire and shifting their current players to their natural positions.
This is a lineup I would love to see. One big free agent (Springer), a medium one (McCann) and then use the rest of the money to shore up SP/RP. Defense would be the best we have seen in a long time with guys that can thump.
C - McCann
1 - Smith
2 - McNeil
3 - Guillorme/Davis
SS - Gimenez
LF - Nimmo
RF - Conforto
CF - Springer
DH - Alonso
Dallas, that's a very good line up. It apparently presumes Rosario has gone elsewhere. I guess one thing they might consider is trading JD Davis and putting the better fielding Rosario at 3B. Or keep both.
ReplyDeleteI heard that SNY proposed a crazy trade for Nolan Arenado, whose career numbers outside of Coors are only .263/.322/.471. Considering he is turning 30 and is owed $35 million per year for the next 6 seasons, how about instead trading the cheaper Rosario and JD Davis for Arenado? Colorado would get a ton of salary relief that it probably needs. We'd get a major league average hitting 3B with a gold glove for his 30 thru 34 years. We could add a prospect pitcher that is not in our top 5 pitching prospects.
I agree with Dallas on the line-up - first priority is Springer, second is McCann.
ReplyDeleteI also agree with Tom that a third base upgrade would be wise. Arenado does not thrill me for the two reasons you just gave - his contract and his stats outside of Denver (especially at Citi Field, albeit a very small sample size)
Dallas, what are your thoughts on the pitching staff to go with that solid defense?
Its hard to say with Arenado. I do think the Rockies want out from under that contract and apparently the Dodgers are interested which would drive up the price to get him. DJL did well outside of the Coors Field confines and most players do have better home than road stats so its hard to say on that one for me. I do think having Rosario or JD as trade pieces or depth makes a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteAs for the pitching staff it looks like the Mets got their first piece today. I think they will find some good deals offseason where they don't necessarily have to lock in long term. I think that is the key to this thing, finding valuable players you don't have to overpay for which I think this covid market will have more of than usual. If the Mets are going to overpay for guys I want it to be for the DeGroms of the world. Maybe Bauer is that person but its hard to do based on the 2018 & 2020 seasons. I feel like pitchers are so much harder to predict...I don't have any favorites.
I agree with you on the pitchers as well.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Bauer is the guy to spend big (and long) on because of every season other than 2018 and 2020, but a short term (3 years max) decent priced deal would be ok with me.
I would like to see them shoot for short term contracts with some of the younger FAs - Odorizzi, Walker, or maybe even Paxton. It would probably cost too much but I'd love to see them pry one of the young controllable upside hurlers from the Indians.
I do like the fact that Stroman is back, but after Bauer, things get pretty thin, and I have been arguing that Bauer himself is not worth the dollars being bandied about.
Yeah I'm with you. I'm not a fan of Stroman after he quit on us last year but now he has a lot of motivation and on a one year deal I like that.
ReplyDeleteThe Braves have done REALLY well grabbing 1 year high upside guys. Donaldson and Ozuna really killed it for them. They haven't all worked out but it doesn't lock them in long term. They have also been buying out the young years of their stars which gives them so much more flexibility with payroll. I hope we see Mets doing some of the same. It feels like the Wilpons so rarely ever bought out their stars early years. The last time I really remember it was Wright/Reyes and those both worked out well.
Actually the Mets bought out Lagares early years too now that I think of it. But it was never an albatross.
ReplyDeleteDallas and Remember, Bauer is high risk, but to win in the playoffs, you need brilliance. I think you need to try Bauer as a Met. Jake is 2 1/2 years older. Hopefully he lasts a very long time at his peak. But you have to consider that, too.
ReplyDeleteYes Tom, I am ok with Bauer on a short term (one or two year deal). Dallas made a great point with Atlanta signing guys for 1 year trial or recovery contracts which don't tie them up for years.
ReplyDeleteBauer is my third priority behind Springer and either Realmuto or McCann. I think putting together a very good defense will go a long way to making the pitching staff better (yea, they gotta get a pitching staff first, but .. )
Springer for 6 years with a 4 year opt out, Realmuto for 4 years max, and if not, McCann should be able to be had for 3 years. Bauer for a $28M one year deal and extend him if it works.