December 3, 2020
It’s no secret that I am passionate about developing and
retaining prospects. I’ve always
believed that in order for a team to achieve long-term success a strong
foundation is necessary. That means
drafting well and targeting highly rated international free agents. That means putting together the necessary
human and capital resources to make it happen.
Recently there was a post suggesting the Mets make an
extraordinary effort to trade for Blake Snell, Kiermaier and Adames giving up
Rosario, Nimmo, Wolf, Mauricio, Peterson, Newton and Szapucki. Since most Met fans are hoping they sign
George Springer to play CF, doing so will negate the idea of bringing Kiermaier on board. We are stocked in the infield
and not sure where Adames would fit in.
It would be great to acquire Snell as long as it does not
mean decimating the farm system. I’m ok
with surrendering any combination of Nimmo, Gimenez, Rosario, Davis plus either
a Wolf or Szapucki. Before any trade
with Tampa Bay can be consummated first let’s see which free agents the Mets
sign. If, for example, they sign
Springer, McCann and Bauer the dynamics change and a trade for Snell should
only be made if the price is right.
Right now I’m pretty excited about our top ten
prospects. However, they are probably at
least a year or two away with Szapucki being the exception. Last I heard the Mets farm system was ranked
20th. Of course none of us
knows how any will pan out.
Looking back the Mets farm system was ranked 16th
going into the 2013 season. The top ten were:
1.
Zack Wheeler
6.
Luis Mateo
The sleeper pick was some guy by the name of Jake DeGrom. Nine of this group went on to have relatively
successful careers thus far.
The Cardinals were top ranked with names like Oscar
Taveras, Selby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, Kolton
Wong, Matt Adams, Tyrell Jenkins, Carson Kelly and Stephen Piscotty.
The Marlins came in at # 5 with Jose Fernandez, Christian
Yellich, Jake Marisnick, Marcel Ozuna, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Urena, JT
Realmuto and Adam Conley as the most notable names.
The Yankees came in at 11th and the only name
that stands out is Gary Sanchez, #2. The
Reds at #15 had Billy Hamilton as its top prospect.
If we were to revisit the 2013 rankings, the Marlins would
likely wind up on top with the Mets
close behind.
All this means is while it’s fun to see how well our team
is ranked vis-a-vie other teams, in the long run nobody really has a clue as to
which players are going to have an impact and which will never make the grade.
I think the team is moving in the right direction. The 2021 team will be competitive especially
if we add at least one more impact pitcher (Bauer) and Springer plus either JT
or McCann.
Ray
I too, like to see the promising draft picks kept and developed. It was painful to trade Kelenic before we had a chance to see what he could do. There was a piece a week or so ago on another site with the title of "Three Mets Prospects who should absolutely not be traded". The three were identifed as Matthey Allan, J.T. Ginn, and Francisco Alvarez. I added the following:
ReplyDeleteI agree 100% on these three and actually think there are a few more that are untouchable. I think Pete Crow-Armstrong is high on the list and Isaiah Greene is also there. They fall into my rule to never trade a #1 pick or a supplemental pick from a Q.O. before he has been in your system for at least 3 years. Brett Baty also falls into this bucket. The last guy I am also pretty high on Josh Wolf. It is time to keep the system full of the top picks.
Lastly, because I like to see the prospects develop and rise to the top, I am also slow to trade them as soon as they get there. Gimenez is the guy I am most interested in seeing one more full year of. At this point, we kind of know what Rosario brings. Gimenez displayed much more glove and a decent bat. He has earned another shot and has the makings of being a very good player. Let's keep him and see once he has had a year or two to show his value.
With all that being said, there is one trade of prospects that I wouldn't mind seeing. . . any thoughts on an even-up swap of Ronny Mauricio for Keibert Ruiz?
ReplyDeleteWho says no?
I'm with you on that deal. Ruiz is a solid contact hitter who plays a position of need for the Mets -- catcher. We have Rosario and Gimenez already, so we could afford to give up another shortstop.
ReplyDeleteI'm ok with Mauricio for Ruiz. Trading surplus for need.
ReplyDeleteGood article, Ray.
ReplyDeleteAlso bad to trade a 1st rounder or QO especially if they are high school picks. Keep them. Use the wallet now, let the prospects blossom.
Sometimes trading prospects is the right move: Piazza, Delgado, Carter, particularly as finishing pieces on WS runs.
ReplyDeleteMost of it stems from ownership. We are fortunate to be rid of the Wilpons. Imagine trying to improve this current team without a big budget? What would you do? There's not much at AAA. You'd be forced into risky trades, fringe signings.
One thing we know about Sandy: He doesn't like to transact. We won't see any bold trades from him, unless he's dumping talent (Dickey, Beltran).
I wasn't impressed with keeping Gsellman for $1.5 million. Struck me as lazy. We can't do better than him on the open marketplace? The Mets really, really need more smart people in the room along with Sandy and his son.
I don't know what to think of Matz. $5.2 million seems like a lot of money for a guy who can't pitch with a toothache. At the same time, he often looks to me on the verge of a breakthrough. Add Matz and Gsellman and that's $6.7 million -- enough to bring in a quality arm that you can depend on (to the point where any of these pitchers can be counted on from year to year).
Jimmy
Dumping Dickey and Beltran got us Wheeler, d'Arnaud and Syndergard. Good pickings at the dump.
DeleteI mean to say:
ReplyDeleteThe article concludes with this: >> The 2021 team will be competitive especially if we add at least one more impact pitcher (Bauer) and Springer plus either JT or McCann. <<
So, sure, if you add what appears to be $60-70 million for three free agents, one can afford to hold on to all your prospects.
Every move has a context, usually driven by ownership.
Jimmy
Its interesting that some people are willing to part with 5 years of Gimenez so easily. Considering his 2020 performance and how highly regarded he was as a prospect until his poor 2019 minor league campaign it doesnt make sense to me. He has shown he is a plus defender and a very good base runner and those are likely to only improve. He was solid with the bat in a small sample size but if he can play close to that level or higher we have a VERY valuable player. He put up a 1.0 WAR in just 132 plate appearances. Extrapolate that out to 600PA and it works to a 4.5 WAR over a full season. Small sample sizes of course but even a 3WAR would make him a valuable and cheap player and simply not someone you trade away for one year of someone else. If you don't want to trade from the top 5-10 prospects we have then you certainly don't want to trade someone you just graduated from that class that has shown he has a solid major leaguer. So I'm with 1969 in that I want to see what he brings to the table next year.
ReplyDeleteJimmy Im with you on Gsellman. If Gsellman is ever with the major league club this year and pitching for them then we have failed somewhere else. I don't like him as depth or using up a spot on the 40 man. I wish him no ill will and if he somehow can turn it around after 4 years of mediocrity thats great. Maybe someone in the Mets org sees something compelling that can be fixed. Frankly I think its the oddest move so far.
My guess is that neither Gsellman nor Matz will be with the Amazin's on April 1. Both will be jettisoned off in trade packages.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought . . not sure how I feel about it, but there were two signings announced yesterday that were about the same amount of money for players that have both struggled and were both rumored to be non-tendered. I wonder if new starts would work for a Steven Matz for Byron Buxton deal, one for one, straight up.
69 - I think Gsellman will be at Syracuse as he has options and can provide needed depth.
ReplyDeleteYes, those were good trades by Sandy, re: Noah, Travis, Wheeler.
ReplyDeleteThey are also the easiest trades to make in baseball, when you are not really trying to win. Usually you are paired with a team that is actually trying to win baseball games, on the short-term, which puts that GM at a huge disadvantage.
We all know this.
To win now costs more. Winning is also a lot harder to do than losing. Sandy was, absolutely, very good at that.
I don't think he's a terrible or incompetent GM. Just mediocre and a little tired. At 73, is he the oldest GM in the game? Pretty sure.
All the people talking about trades: Did you watch him during his 7 1/2 years with the Mets? What trades did he make besides the salary dumps? Yes, in 2015 he finally transacted and brought in bench reinforcements. And late in 2018, or 2017, he dumped more vets for 11 RH relief pitchers who were ALL bad. Not easy to do! Generally, he's not a GM who believes in swapping guys around, it's just not the way he operates. Very cautious, very risk averse; he likes retaining the guys he knows (even when they aren't that good). It doesn't mean that he's right or wrong and it certainly avoids mistakes that get bloggers' attentions. I just don't project him to make many of those kinds of moves.
But he will sign good players w/ Cohen's cash and that should help a lot.
The talks with McCann suggest to me that the Mets are serious about spending on Springer and, possibly, a frontline pitcher. Add another reliever, possibly via a small trade, and that strikes me as a very positive off-season.
I'm still curious to know what he thinks about JD Davis and Jeff McNeil defensively.
Jimmy
Jimmy,
ReplyDeleteOne of the best summations of Sandy's first run with the Mets. Apparently he could have gotten better players in the 2017 Salary dump trades if he didn't insist that the receiving teams took on the salaries - but in the end we will never know.
Defense was not something he valued in the past - can't see him valuing it in the future.
That said - I think he is a transitional piece here. He was hired to help get the sale approved and build up the baseball side of the front office.
If the off season ends with McCann, Bauer and Springer - it would be a very positive off season indeed.
You guys are being too tough on Sandy. Any of you who have served as managers know you operate under parameters set out. I like Sandy and think he will thrive in this new regime.
ReplyDeleteSomeone put together how poorly the Mets have done since being owned by the Wilpons over the last 18 years. Basically the gist of it was that only the Mariners have been worse when you factor in playoff appearances, records and world series victories.
ReplyDeleteSo I think there is a good chance the Wilpons are to blame for a good chunk of the failure + Omar, Sandy, BVW and the knucklehead that traded Kazmir before that. We kill BVW but all of them have had plenty of boneheaded moves of their own. We simply have no idea how much of that had to do with Jeff Wilpon.
RDS900: Fair point about Sandy. He was lousy in San Diego, too. But anyway, we'll see. I don't think I've been hard on him particularly, he's solid enough. He's just not an "active" GM, that's never been his style.
ReplyDeleteI do admit that some of my criticism of Sandy is in response to the sycophantic coverage he gets on blogs in general. Consider it an act of counterbalance. The talk is about how he's going to come along and fix all the myriad problems that he himself helped create.
Yes, he worked under parameters. I just don't see anywhere close to the same recognition given to BVW, who also operated under parameters.
Jimmy