Tom Brennan: GM "Remember 1969" Lays Out His Case for How the Mets Could Finish The Rebuild

I asked some of our “Mets GMs” to put together a plan for the roster fill out, now that Messrs. Stroman, McCann and May are in the fold. 

 

GM “Remember 1969” put forth this strategic game plan.

 

Centerfield first: Hopefully (acquire) George Springer.

Starting pitching second.

 

I am a intrigued by Sugano, not so much a Tanaka fan.

Odorizzi is OK. 

I think Paxton and Walker are two of my risk/reward looks.

 

I would also like to explore a trade for a team-controllable pitcher like Zach Plesac or Joe Musgrove. Blake Snell would be great, but I fear the prospect cost. I am on the train now that Steve Matz can make a big recovery with McCann's assistance.

I am actually OK with the bullpen as it stands, although Hand, as a lefty, would be very nice. We don't need another top shelf righty (Hendriks)

Perhaps use some imagination and financial creativity to create a great fielding infield.

And yes, figure out the Conforto and Syndergaard contracts before they become issues. No shudda/wudda/cudda articles next year.

 

2021-2022 Mets Free Agents: What to do?

At this point in time, the Mets will have three major players hitting the free agent market after the 2021 season. There have been a some press rumblings about possible extensions for Michael Conforto and to a lesser degree Noah Syndergaard. There has been much less (if any) about extending Marcus Stroman.

There are really three options for upcoming free agents:

 

Sign them early before they hit the market, trade them a year ahead or at the trade deadline to maximize the return, or let them play out the year and see what happens. The qualifying offer is a potential other option that would yield a good draft pick if the player signs elsewhere.

I think it is worthwhile thinking a bit about each of their situations now; perhaps we can avoid the 'Zack Wheeler 20-20 hindsight debate'.

Conforto: The best option here is to make every effort to sign him before he hits the market. The big question is what would it take?

Perhaps a good discussion would be George Springer, not to compare their careers and statistics, but to attempt to judge the value of a contract. It is thought that Springer will command a 5 year deal between $25M and $30M per year. While he is a centerfielder and generally regarded as a better fielder, he will also play his first year of the F/A contract at age 31. Conforto will be 29.

 

Through their age 27 seasons, Springer was worth 17.3 fWar, while Conforto accumulated 16.0. Springer has also has very solid post season stats to pad his resume.

My take is that now is the time to sign Michael Conforto for 5 years $105M, an average of $21M.

Final note on Conforto: the 2021-22 free agent market for rightfielders is pretty weak with Blackmon, Fowler, Castellanos, Calhoon, and Gregory Polanco being the others.

 

Syndergaard: This is a little more difficult because of the Tommy John surgery. 

The sensible path would seem to be to wait for him to come back.  And...

Show that he is healthy to take the ball every 5th day for at least half of 2021..

 

If he comes back in June as advertised, a contract proposal during the All-Star break might be in order. Also, depending on the depth of the Mets staff at the time, it might also be prudent to work out a deadline deal, where he could probably yield a couple top prospects from a team needing one more pitcher to get over the hump in 2021. Of course, that team is most likely to be the Mets.

What would he be worth in a new contract? He will be 29 during most of his 2022 season. Let's baseline Wheeler's 5 year $118M contract as a start point. Through their age 27 seasons, Syndergaard amassed 18.9 fWar, Wheeler 7.8. Wheeler had the advantage of showing he was healthy for two years entering free agency.

Common sense is that if he comes back healthy, Thor will want to wait until after the season to show a full year of results. 

He will be among quite a few very good pitchers in next year's market, but will be the youngest and certainly most accomplished for his age. If he comes back strong, he could very well be looking at a 6 year deal in the $150 to $165M range, well above Wheeler's contract.

Do the Mets do that deal? This is a tough call. Perhaps the right way to handle this is to offer him the qualifying offer after 2021 and 'stay engaged'. It all depends on the other actions taken and committed dollars at that time.

Stroman will be one of the younger starting pitchers hitting the market after 2021. 

Because he just accepted the QO, he'll no longer be eligible for it next year. 

When healthy, he has been fairly consistent with:

3.3, 3.4, 3.4, and 3.9 fWar seasons to date.

 

He did not pitch in 2020 due to COVID concerns. Assuming he comes back in 2020 and has a normal to slightly above normal season, his contract will most likely trail Wheeler's. Does a 4 year $75M deal sound about right? That might be a bit low, but that seems like a deal the Mets might want to look at.

Other Mets free agents after 2021 are Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betantes, and Brad Brach. There is certainly no reason to talk early deals with any of them and in fact the only possible one to look at after the season might be Matz, depending if he can right the ship and become a trusted back end of the rotation guy, although 2020 may have played with the fans hearts just a bit too much. 

Will any of them still be with the club by then?

Thoughts? 

What do you Mets fans want to do with the upcoming free-agents?