By Brian Joura January 19, 2021
One of the lousy things about the shortened 2020 MLB season was that it robbed us of a full season of prime Jacob deGrom. It looked like he was going to be as good in 2020 as he was in 2019, if not better. But instead of seeing another 7+ fWAR season unfold in real life, we got just 12 games and 68 IP from our ace last year.
Everyone frets about how the low innings total a season ago will impact pitchers this year. We even have some people dusting off the disproven Verducci Effect and claiming that big innings pitched jumps this year will lead to huge injury totals, both this year and in following seasons. But what if the reverse is true – that low innings pitched totals will actually benefit hurlers? Is it impossible to fathom that the “rest” enforced by the shortened season will be beneficial to veteran pitchers?
Let’s check in on the computer forecasts for deGrom. We have a new one to add to the stable this week, as FanGraphs now has projections from THE BAT on its player pages.
Marcel – 172 IP, 2.83 ERA, 212 Ks, 48 BB, 17 HR
RotoCh – 201 IP, 2.78 ERA, 253 Ks, 52 BB
Steamer – 201 IP, 2.97 ERA, 268 Ks, 53 BB, 22 HR
THE BAT – 204 IP, 3.08 ERA, 271 Ks, 61 BB, 22 HR
ZiPS – 176.2 IP, 2.85 ERA, 217 Ks, 40 BB, 20 HR
We seem to have two camps here. Marcel and ZiPS expect deGrom to be very good but at a much lower IP total. The other three all have similar IP totals and expect him to perform at the same rate as the first group – just over a longer period of time. Is the first group forecasting an injury? If so, that’s not that unusual. There was the neck injury deGrom had last year, the elbow injury in 2019, the hyperextended elbow in 2018, the triceps injury in 2017 and the ulnar nerve issue in 2016. The bottom line is that pitchers get hurt on a regular basis.
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