Reese Kaplan -- The Shoe We Waited For Dropped Dramatically

 

Mets fans certainly got the news they were waiting to hear – a blockbuster trade to help improve areas of need on the ballclub.  By now everyone is familiar with the folks needing airplane tickets to change work locations.  From the Mets you have the departures of Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario.  That was a little surprising since there is still an unsettled question regarding 2^nd base and 3^rd base.  In addition, they get minor league prospects Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene.  When you give up four players, one of whom has already shown a positive big league bat, it might seem a lot.

However, when you consider what is coming back from the home of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, well, maybe it’s not too much of an overpay if you have informally agreed with shortstop Francisco Lindor to negotiate and extension and not let him hit free agency.  He’s regarded as the best defensive shortstop in his former American League and has delivered a WAR rating per year of 5.52 not including the 60-game more-or-less exhibition season in 2020.  That is an amazing performance and if it took two major leaguers and two minor leaguers to secure Lindor, you could argue that the slight overpay was worth it.

However, they also obtained the now healthier CarlosCarrasco who can take one of the conspicuously vacant starting rotation slots.  After a somewhat uneven start to his career, he ran off a string of 6 out of 7 very positive years for the Indians.  Incorporating his whole pitching career, that amounts to a positive 88-73 record, a very respectable 1.196 WHIP, over 10 Ks per 9 IP and only around 2 walks over that span.  His ERA which includes his bad and good years is 3.77.  As a reminder, the ERA for Trevor Bauer is 3.90.  The righthander is set to earn $12 million each of the next two years with a third year $3 million buy-out or a $14 million salary. If I do the math correctly, even if the Mets provide him with that third year, they will have paid $38 million for three years of service.  They could have that or about one year of Bauer.  That seems like a pretty fair return for the Metropolitans.

So the question now is what happens next?  If you assume Jeff McNeil is taking the 2^nd base position vacated by the Dominican Dabbler in prohibited substances, then who’s on third (and please don’t say “Who’s on first” or “I Don’t Know’s on third”).  Right now the fierce battle would appear to be between slugger with a lead glove, J.D. Davis or gloveman extraordinaire with a balsa wood bat, Luis Guillorme.  I would think Guillorme is most definitely penciled in as the do-it-all substitute infielder, so J.D. Davis would appear to be the incumbent.

Unless…

Are the Mets still interested in improving the defense at third base as well by adding one of the speculative trade candidates like Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant?  There are others out there who could fit as well, but they’ve already started gutting the pre-Cohen minor league rosters which were pretty razor thin as it is.  It’s possible that potentially unneeded pitchers like Steven Matz or Jeurys Familia could be on the block, but neither would seem to net much in return.  All the publicity you’re reading about Matz and James McCann working out together suggests they are not ready to flush away the lefty hurler just yet.  Familia could be on the block if they indeed add another big arm like Brad Hand or Liam Hendriks. 

Of course, the centerfield question still exists.  Is the ballclub prepared to go into the season with Dom Smith in left, Brandon Nimmo in center and Michael Conforto in right?  It’s a distinct possibility they will try to muddle through another DH-less year that way in the hopes of the 9^th hitter becoming reality with a new COB for 2022.  However, there’s not been any firm action or inaction on George Springer, Jackie Bradley, Jr. or others who would provide upgraded leather where Juan Lagares once roamed. 

On the whole the trade is good as it stands.  It would rank as excellent if they indeed can extend Lindor for several more years.  However, I do remember the great Mike Hampton acquisition that everyone felt was a terrific move only to see him depart for Colorado.  I’d like to be a believer, but I prefer to see signed contracts.