"Remember 1969" - GUEST EDITORIAL - THE OUT-OF-BALANCE NY METS

 

The Out-of-Balance New York Mets

(Submitted by Mack’s Mets Reader “Remember 1969”):

I have been thinking recently about how the Mets are certainly not the Libra of baseball.   The imbalance of righty-lefty hitters in the lineup that has been discussed is not even in the top five in my list of all the out of balance conditions.

The executive team is one area where this organization is out of whack.

With Sandy Alderson and only an assistant GM, it is hard to tell if and how decisions are going to be made for a while.  Will it affect the extension discussions with Lindor, Conforto, or even Syndergaard or Stroman?   You have to think they have a straw man or some strategy of what they need to accomplish, but without all the executive pieces in place, can they get it done?   They are out of balance, with a strong owner on one side and a very weak baseball executive office on the other.  

Turning to the baseball playing side of things, the biggest imbalance is the defense.   It almost seems pointless to obtain and pay top dollar for one of the top three defensive shortstops in baseball only to insert him into an otherwise poor defensive infield.   

They have one very good defender in Lindor, a couple average defenders in Conforto and McCann, and a couple players that are thought to be good defenders at their primary positions, but cannot play them for one reason or another in Smith and Nimmo.   They have a couple of players who are generally considered to be below average in Davis and Alonso, and one major unknown in how McNeil will play second base on a permanent basis.    At least Stroman and deGrom are good fielders when on the mound.       

They seem to have an imbalance with the number of players they have at each position.   Two first basemen (one that can hit and not field well), no real second basemen, one shortstop (hope he never gets hurt),  a couple of third baseman that are better at other positions, an assumed left fielder who is a lousy fielder there and a better fielder than the starter at another position, three other players whose best position is left field, but are playing elsewhere because nobody else is there (centerfield, third base, and second base), a center fielder whose best position is left field and one right fielder.   

Oh yes, one starting catcher and a backup that nobody seems to trust.    General bench depth to get to 25 players is poor, even worse when extrapolating to the 40 man.  Trading two MLB shortstops in the same trade seems shortsighted. 

The second issue on the field is an offensive imbalance.   While they were near the top of the league in hitting for batting average and above average in the power numbers, their team speed, general base running, ability to hit with runners in scoring position are all below par.   

In 2020, this team was third in the majors in OPS, yet only 13th in runs scored.   This inability to convert hits and base runners into runs scored without a home run is concerning.    This fact, despite the popular bashing of the pitching staff, is what ultimately led to the unsatisfying end of the 2020 season.    Improving the ability to score without hitting a homer will bring the entire offense back into balance.  

As many people are talking about now, the bullpen is very right handed.   While the LOOGY specialist has been minimalized with the three batter limit, there is always the need for a lefty to start an inning with the tough lefty hitters in the NL East.  

Moving off the field to the general organization, the minor leagues are very imbalanced with a dearth of prospects at the top levels ready to make a difference in New York in 2021 or 2022.    

The top seven prospects according to MLB.com are all at A-ball or ROK level, and even #8, Thomas Szapucki, who is listed at MLB level, has not thrown many minor league innings and is not thought to be an impact pitcher.    There are five outfielders on the top 30 list, the top four of them all being in Rookie level ball.   The other, at #30 is Quinn Brodey at the AAA level is already 25 and is not on anyone's radar now for being helpful to the big club this year.     Also out of balance is the aforementioned Szapucki being the only left handed pitcher on the 30 man prospect list.   15 of the 30 are right handed pitchers.    

This system just doesn't look like it will be ready to provide any help to New York before at least 2023, further hamstringing front office decisions.   Perhaps the closest position players to be called a true prospect at this point is Mark Vientos, a third baseman, and Ronny Mauricio, a shortstop.    If Lindor is signed long term, Mauricio will need to move off short, most likely to third, causing a logjam in a couple of years with Vientos and Brett Baty, another top 5 prospect and also a third baseman.    It is possible that Mauricio could be moved to second to be the natural successor there.   

Another argument on the minor league imbalance, the last time the Mets added a true prospect through trade was the 2012 acquisition of Noah Syndergaard and Travis d'Arnaud from Toronto for the then Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey.   Now I am not advocating trading deGrom for prospects, and this team is a lot closer to being relevant than the 2013 version, but the loss of top prospects Kelenic, Dunn, Woods-Richardson, and Kay has hurt without being back-filled.  

Was there an opportunity to trade Syndergaard for top prospects a couple years ago?    Can he be that player again at the trade deadline?    How about a player like McNeil who seems to be a hitting machine, but really doesn't have a best place to play (arguably, left field is his best position)?   Could he bring back a couple of automatic top 10 high level prospects (AA or AAA, or even major league ready)?       

One last place that seems a bit out of balance is the international draft that just took place a couple weeks ago when they signed 30 players, none of whom are thought to be top 50 prospects.   This will not help the system down the road.    They do have a few promising international players signed in prior drafts in the system, but most are years away from the big leagues. 

What does this all mean when trying to build the 2021 roster through free agency and/or trades?    It is hard to tell which issue to truly address.   

* Signing a centerfielder like Jackie Bradley, Jr. would certainly help the defense and team speed, but that is imperfect in that it may take at bats away from Dom Smith whose bat came alive in 2020 and who most people believe is the real deal and want to see him in the lineup.

* There has been recent chatter about signing Kolten Wong to play second base because of his defense.   That leaves a question about Jeff McNeil?   Moving him to third?   Trade for starting pitching and a prospect or two?    Push him to left field and trade Smith or Nimmo?     

* Calling third base defense the most important issue and trying to solve that will cost big bucks, as nobody short of Bryant or Arenado really solves the problem.  The money due Arenado would handcuff the team for other additions - any additional starting pitching, relief pitching, or even the outfield (and not just this year).     

One thing that needs to be tackled is to do a salary analysis against 2021, 2022, and 2023.   The extensions of Lindor (almost definite?)  and Conforto (almost required), and the resolution of 40 percent of the rotation for next year must be part of that study.     Conforto is almost required because he is far and away the best right fielder (outfielder) in the 2022 free agent class, and they don't have a ton of trade chips to deal.  The only other option is to plan to use McNeil in right field for his last 3 years of team control.   A year from now they'll need to figure out Nimmo's situation, as well as Diaz. 

Lots to ponder and act on, to bring an out-of-balance squad to a well synchronized one.  How would you address any of these matters?