RHP 6-5 150 LSU
2020 LSU stat line - 1-app, 1-0, 0.00, 1.00, 1-IP, 1-K
Hilliard out of LSU is probably the most interesting pitcher that I have on this list as a prospect (and one of my favorites). Coming in at 6’0 150lbs, it would not be fair to compare him to power arms (which frankly too many MLB teams have looked exclusively for velocity).
Hilliard is a shining example of a guy that could project out to be a sneaky star from the pen at the big league level. The first box he checks off is the mental one. This kid doesn't care about his size, pressure, or any other factor; he does not back down from anything (exactly what I want out of the pen).
When it comes to his physical stuff, he sits at only 86–89 on his fastball. This is not a problem however, as his spin rate on the heater is a remarkable 2636 (his 2020 average). With vertical movement of around 8 inches (plus) and some horizontal tail (arm side run around 3 inches on average), his fastball is not so easy to hit (plays like a sinker). Hillard extends very well off the mound, coming in at just over his height in push off. This is acceptable in the creation of an ideal flat vertical approach angle, as any extension number longer than the height of the pitcher is considered adequate. While not conventional, due to his fastball playing like a sinker (usually most effective with steep approach angles) his fastball remains remarkably difficult to square up. Hilliard’s curve is elite; frankly it is his best pitch. Living around 75 mph, it provides a solid change in pace, and with a Bauer Unit score of a whopping 37.48 (over 2800 rpm on the pitch), it is next level. His third pitch is a changeup, which has a high spin rate, which he takes advantage of. While it doesn’t have the movement of a slower spin rated change, it is read by the hitter as a fastball. This is fine, as his fastball velo isn’t high enough for a need in a slower playing change (his curveball is slow enough and he is looking for miss hit baseballs, not K’s).
In today’s age of fireballing starters (and relievers), having a consistent option out of the pen in middle relief that brings a massive change in armslot, velocity, and break is extremely advantageous. Particularly, with the new rule of pitchers having to face a minimum of 3 batters, he could be a unicorn that teams struggle to prepare for. Hilliard isn’t going to be a guy taken in the first few rounds, or seen high up on many draft boards, but he is worth putting on a board to me.
In the middle rounds of drafts, sometimes it is preferable to take a player who might not have the highest ceiling in regards to stuff, but that can carve a niche that will impact the organization. I think a team that is a (borderline) contender or that is father along in a rebuild would be ideal, as he is a guy I see as a final, special piece in building a playoff roster, not as a guy to come into the league early in a rebuild.
Pitchers like him that reach the show can have careers that go one of two ways. They can be a bit of a one hit wonder, being dominant early and eventually being figured out a few years in. On the flip side, they can continue to be dominant and have a long successful career as a niche reliever. This makes him a higher risk pick, which is another reason for a team with a quality big league roster/built up farm system to take him (looking at you Dodgers and Rays).
LSU -
2020 Season - Appeared in one game during the pandemic-shortened season, working one shutout inning vs. Southern on Feb. 18 … was credited with the relief win after allowing no hits with one walk and one strikeout in a 19-pitch outing.
Mack's spin -
You know I don't like pitchers six feet and under. Plus he really hasn't shown us that much yet.
I give him an incomplete status right now.
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