Tom Brennan - An Interesting Glimpse at Mets' Players RISP Effectiveness and Related Data

Don't leave me on base, please.

A few days ago, I took a look at key Mets, and possible Mets, players in terms of "BABIP", or Batting Average on Balls In Play.

Today, a similar topic.

RISP (what a hitter does with runners in scoring position) and other related stats, which you can find on Baseball Reference for each player, are valuable to assess, also. 

My first-ever article on this site, perhaps 8-9 years ago (how time flies) was analyzing what I thought were Lucas Duda's statistical weaknesses and what he could do better.

When counts got to any combination of counts with 2 strikes, he hit just .159.  Unlucky Lukey?  Or just Lousy Lukey?

When pitchers were ahead in the count, he hit .203, with 435 Ks in 1,043 PAs, 30% of his total MLB plate appearances.  He was fairly OK with RISP at .234 career with. 300 RBIs in 954 PAs.  If you ever felt he rarely ever came through in "late and close" situations, however, you were right, as in those ABs, he hit an ultra-poor .185/.290/.327 in his career.  

My recommendation for him at that time of that inaugural article was to be far more aggressive in not taking strike one and strike two, and take real advantage of his plus power. "Swing away, Lucas...swing away." That, however, never happened in any meaningful way - easier said than done, I imagine.  Can't teach old power hitters new tricks, I guess.

Some hitters, though, do substantially modify their approach to their advantage, like Jerry Grote, who I noted the other day hit .204 in his early seasons through 1967 and greatly upped it to .265 the rest of the way.

Anyway, what about current Mets?

Pete Alonso: It's early in his career, for sure, but many of the Duda stats are similar so far for Pete.  Alonso is a .166 hitter when he gets to 2 strikes, .210 hitter when the pitcher is ahead, .242 with RISP...truly similar there.

But two big differences in Pete's favor - significantly more HRs per plate appearance (Duda, to my eye, had Plus Power, whereas Pete has Plus Plus Power), and where Duda was a .185 hitter "late and close", Pete clearly relishes that challenge more and it shows numerically: .269/.358/.571.  

Greatness for Pete seems to come down to laying off bad pitches more.  And no doubt it is something he is keenly focused on this off-season.

Jeff McNeil: Squirrel is superb with RISP, at .326/.404/.540.  

Right there, anyone who suggests trading Jeff would be suggesting something foolish.   Even when a pitcher is ahead of him, he hits almost 100 points higher than Duda at .251.  

Remarkably, when his ABs end on even count pitches, he has hit .370.  Ty Cobb said that impresses him.  In late and close situations, he has room to improve as he is a .248/.350/.376 hitter, not bad, but well below his career norms.  If anyone can improve that aspect, I believe McNeil can.

Michael Conforto: He is a career .171 hitter when he gets to two strikes, and when the pitcher is ahead, MC has been a very weak .192/.207/.371, with 316 Ks in 760 PAs.  Career, though, he is very solid with RISP, at .271/.394/.513, but in late and close at bats, he is just a .209 hitter...but in 2020, he hit a much better .250 in such situations.  May that continue.

Brandon Nimmo: the man who loves to get on base has hit just .173 in two strike counts - but managed a very decent .322 OBP in those PAs.   Hits for him aren't everything - getting on base is.  When the pitcher gets ahead, he is just a .203 hitter.  

RISP?  Great on base %, with a .259/.425/.454 split.  He keeps rallies going.  And his .366 OBP in late and close situations is excellent, considering that those ABs often are in lefty-lefty match ups and against a team's best reliever.

I'll say it again - he's a keeper.

Dominic Smith: given his deep early career struggles and sporadic playing time, I focused on just 2020 for Dom.  As expected, excellent.  When he was in 2 strike counts, a very competitive .237/.301/.441, compared to Duda's .159.  When a pitcher was ahead, .238/.247/.464.  RISP?  A superlative .333/.379/.596.  Late and close?  Strong at .286/.300/.571.  You'd take those numbers every year from Smith.  Can we have another heaping serving in 2021, Dom?

James McCann: Similar to Smith, he sputtered earlier in his career, before a strong 2019 and 2020, so I thought of just looking at 2020, but I thought his strong -  and longer - 2019 (113 games) might give a better picture of McCann. 

He was not great with 2 strike counts at .212 and hit just .184 when pitchers were ahead, with 137 Ks in 290 PAs, a really high %.  But his RISP and "late and close" splits were excellent: .321/.403/.596, and .333/.438/.593.  I'll take that in 2021, with no questions asked.

Francisco Lindor: With 2 strikes in his career, .208 with a decent .271 OBP; when pitchers are ahead, a McNeil-like .251/.258/.378.  Good, but not great, with RISP at .257/.335/.412, but superb late and close at .280/.354/.504.  All in all, I'll take it.  Welcome to the fray!

Lastly, 2 guys the Mets are considering (well, one is gone now, huh?) - I will limit my focus to what they did last season only:

Jackie Bradley Jr. had an above .283 season, but hit just .146 with 2 strikes and .211 with a .228 OBP when the pitcher was ahead.  With RISP, he hit only .208 (.244 career), and in late and close situations, he hit just .160 (.217 career). Not good, frankly. One favorable stat was his hitting .287 when his team was behind.

George Springer: the dearly departed George has hit just .169 with 2 strikes (but a decent .288 OBP); and just .200 when behind the pitcher.  But a stellar .324/.449/.595 with RISP and solid "late and close" at .250/.314/.469.  But, alas, he won’t be hitting for the Mets with RISP....

Based on the numbers for Jr. and Springer, I'd have taken Springer.  

But it ain't my checkbook.

Thoughts on any of the above?