Tom Brennan - METS' DOUBLE DECLINING PLAYER DEPRECIATION

SOME PLAYERS EXPERIENCE 

THE DREADED DDD

I learned about depreciation in my Accounting classes in college back in the 1970s...truly exciting stuff.

Applying that accounting concept to baseball players can be illustrative.

Some players have years of strong success and only decline or depreciate late in career life. 

Tom Seaver was an example of such a player.  The great ones tend to stay great for very long periods.

Many solid but not great players depreciate sooner and at a fairly normal rate: perhaps several good years followed by age-related decline.

Then there are other players for whom the term “double declining depreciation” (DDD)  is most applicable, characterized by brief, strong, young, early career performance followed by steep and swift decline.

Not too long ago, I was watching a 2006 Mets replay game where they mentioned the sudden departure of Victor Diaz.  Diaz hit .294 in 51 at bats as a 22 year old, followed by hitting .258 with a .468 slugging % at age 23.  

Who wouldn't think that was promising young performance. Maybe a useful, possibly strong player for years to come.  Not.

The Dreaded DDD hit him hard.  Over the next 2 seasons, he had 115 at bats, didn't hit great, and his MLB career never made it to age 26.

Timo Perez played in that 2006 game for the Cardinals. He had solid years with the Mets at ages 26 and 27 and did little thereafter. DDD.

Juan Lagares, considering his defensive acumen had very good years at ages 25 and 26...but sharply declined thereafter, with only about 700 subsequent at bats. His last season with any sort of at bat was at age 30 when, in 258 ABs, he hit .213.

Ike Davis had a fine rookie year, a finer second year start before a bizarre injury, then hit 32 HRs the next season after an agonizingly bad season start. Then he caught the DDD bug, and hit like crap in limited at bats over the next 4 seasons and was finished at 29.

Ruben Tejada hit .284 and .289 at ages 21 and 22. Impressive, considering that Jeff McNeil debuted at age 26. But his hitting nosedived into DDD territory after that, and his last MLB season with significant at bats (360) was at age 25.  Where did the early promise go? DDD-down the drain.

Non-Mets also have encountered the career-killing DDD.

One non-Mets player who double-declined was Zoilo Versalles, who won the MVP in his mid-20's in 1965, then skidded, hitting .249, .200, and .196 the next 3 years, never remotely approaching that MVP season again.  What the heck happened?

How about San Diego’s Nate Colbert? Playing in cavernous San Diego’s ballpark, he remarkably hit as many as 38 HRs twice by the age of 26.  He then hit OK but with a lot less power at age 27 (.270, 22 HRs), and was frankly terrible thereafter hitting .198 in 494 at bats for the rest of his short remaining career, ending at age 30.

Billy Hamilton had solid, blazing seasons from ages 23 through 26, with 230 steals. Then DDD-declined rapidly, hitting just 4 for 32 at age 29 in 2020.  Hard to think that he is not finito.

The Yanks’ Gary Sanchez was incredibly dangerous at ages 23 and 24, with 53 HRs and 132 ribbies in just 672 at bats, hitting .285.  Hall of Fame trajectory? Not so fast.  In the ensuing 2018-20 seasons, while continuing to smash a lot of HRs, he hit just .200.  Head-scratching plunge.

Fellow catcher and briefly a Met, Devin Mesoraco, had a great All Star year at age 26, but hit under .220 in sporadic play over the next (and last) 4 seasons.  Then he DDD-departed.

Now, the Mets have signed several players this off season who seem to be trending that "DDD-downhill-fast" way.

Mallex Smith hit .296 with 40 steals at age 25. Then dropped 70 points in 2019 and hit just .133 in 45 at bats at age 27. What happened?

Brandon Drury at ages 23 and 24 had an excellent 68 doubles and 29 HRs in 916 at bats, hitting .275. The next 3 seasons, in about 550 at bats, he hit only about .210. Huh?

Jose Peraza hit .324 in 2016 over half a season at age 22, and had 2 very solid years at ages 23-24. But then slid to .239 and .225 in 2019 and 2020.  Que passa?

Jose Martinez hit .305 and .309 in 2017 and 2018, slipped to .269 the following year, and then hit .188 in around 90 at bats in 2020. Puzzling.  Maybe he'll bounce back.

Double Decliners.  

Can any of the latter 4 new DDD Mets listed just above, who have all had very successful past seasons, defy the double declining depreciation tables this year and bounce back? If so, we’d certainly appreciate it.

Question to you: who else fits into this "double declining" Mets category?  (One non-Met who certainly does is the still-owed-many-millions Os' Chris Davis, who has hit(?) an incredibly low .169 in 829 ABs over the last 3 seasons).

Last thought: rumors circulated that the Mets might be considering acquiring Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez from the Reds.  Huge power, with 98 HRs in 1,300 ABs over the past 3 years. 

Yet, when I compared his last 3 years to those of Chris Davis over the same 3 same-age years, their numbers were similar.  Davis had one more strong year after that, before the nose dive began. 

Suarez's K rate has steadily climbed, and while his rate over the past 3 years was lower than that of Davis in the same time frame, it was still very high.  To me, that is a big warning sign that the dreaded DDD may not be far off for Suarez.  Were that to happen, buy with real caution and eyes wide open.