This won't be a long piece.
With the Mets apparently showing increased interest in Trevor Bauer again, many have cited his career ups and downs.
Before we go there, what did he do last season? Short, but sensational (including post-season):
81 innings, just 43 hits! That's gotta be right around .150.
17 walks, 9 HRs, 112 Ks (12.5 K/9 IP). ERA? 1.55.
Like Pedro Martinez in his prime numbers.
That is, again, just sensational. Hard to imagine that he cannot be strong, if not sensational again, in 2021.
He had a very shaky 2019, a fine 2018, and the prior two years, his ERA was above 4, but he was 29-17.
Baseball Reference projects his 2021 at 11-10, 3.62. That seems like a lot of slippage. I think he does better. Especially in Ws and Ls.
A warning sign is his proclivity in surrendering the long ball: 141 in 1,190 career innings. And a whopping 34 taters surrendered in 219 innings in 2019.
Since 2017, he has struck out guys like Mighty Mad Max Scherzer. Which is very attractive.
He remarkably is 12-0 lifetime vs. Houston and the Dodgers. That says something, don't you think? Think post-season.
He's still out there. May the best team win.
I said it would not be a long piece. What do you think?
My ultimate nightmare Mets pitching signing was Shaun Marcum.
ReplyDelete60-38 as a non_Met.
1-10 as a Met.
The Mets should stay away from him like the plague. His track record is not worthy of a long, bloated contract, his signing would create the same type of financial conundrum regarding Michale Conforto and other potential future contracts with current players and, most importantly, everything I read is he is not a good teammate and is all about himself and his "brand." Baseball is a team game and the Mets seem to have a pretty good chemistry that has only been enhanced by the additions of Lindor, Carasco, Martinez, and McCann, among others. With few exceptions (early '70's Oakland A's, and the battling Yankees of the late '70's) poor team chemistry will doom a collection of stars to team failure. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck. Replace "duck" with "jerk" and you see my point.
ReplyDeleteHolmer, tell me how you really feel!
ReplyDeleteWhat if he signed for 2 years $70 million? That takes away the multiple year nightmare possibility.
A rotation heading into the playoffs of DeGrom, Bauer, Stroman, Carrasco, and Thor and/or Peterson would have the potential to be absolutely lethal.
And he is, as I wrote, 12-0 lifetime against likely playoff opponents LAD and Houston. Incredible.
I wonder how Carrasco would feel about a reunion?
I kind of feel like holmer in this, but see Tom’s point also.... So, you sign Bauer too, what does that mean to Stroman and Syndergaard? How many $30MM pitchers will you have? How many $35MM pitchers will you have?
ReplyDeleteI’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t mention that yesterday I wrote that Bauer has had two great years in the last six, the other four years being ERA’s of over 4 and a career 3.90 ERA, which is higher than all the other Mets starters. I said $22-$24MM is what he’s worth, but it’s not my place to say it if the market will pay it.
I would take him for an inflated two years (>$30) or a team friendly four years ($22-$24MM). Then, there’s the second round pick to think about at 10th!
If the Mets can make this deal a secured $48MM two year deal, and a player option two year deal at $60MM, then the guaranteed money is less than $50MM making it a fifth round draft choice. Now, it’s more palatable.
I wouldn't mind Bauer here for a season, until Thor shows in the 2nd half that he's healthy.
ReplyDeleteBeyond this season, we have to decide on extending both Thor and Stro. If they're successful this season, do we let them walk because Bauer is tying up payroll?
I would offer Bauer no mare than 1 year plus team option. Come November, we can see if Stro/Thor choose to leave, how Peterson has developed, etc.
Committing to Bauer thru '22 and beyond is not my idea of a smart way to proceed.
To your point Tom, Bauer makes the Mets better on the field, even if he doesn't approach last years' numbers and your suggestion of a shorter contract length, seconded by Gus, could alleviate some of the salary issues going forward but I have a feeling he will be a nightmare from a chemistry perspective and that issue alone keeps me less than enthralled by his acquisition.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Sandy has asked Lindor and Carrasco about Bauer.
ReplyDeleteI realize it is a fine line - the Nets have Kyrie Irving. He is a problematic dude, too. Time will tell, but I imagine they wish they didn't.
Texas Gus , if they can do what you said and protect that pick, it helps.
ReplyDeleteGood point about asking your players about a former teammate. Further, what about asking friends in the league? Oh, I forgot. Alderson doesn’t have any. That Porter thing killed this off season. He deserved it, but the franchise is now short handed.
ReplyDeleteTexas Gus, I wonder if Jeff Passan (who I believe is the one who broke the Porter story, which truth be told I have not read about) could have waited a few weeks or a month to allow the Mets to complete their off season activities. Same result for Porter, just delayed a bit, and it would not have short-circuited whatever Porter was trying to achieve. If I were the Mets, I'd want to know that. And if he could have waited, I would not be one bit appreciative of its timing.
ReplyDeleteThank heaven for short pieces . . concise and to the point.
ReplyDeleteI have been opposed to signing Bauer from the get go. I cannot imagine his price coming down to a point where I believe he would be worth it. Career wise, he is not much different from several other starters currently on the market. One spectacular year does not a superstar make. I would not sign him for 2 years/$50 million when I could probably get Taijuan Walker for 2 years/$19 million (or trade for Sonny Gray and his 3 years/$31 million) and still have room to sign a Brad Hand, a utility guy for the bench, and comfortably extend Lindor and Conforto.
Thanks, Herb...I didn’t want to get short with you?
ReplyDeleteYou make good points. But will Cohen decide to spend BIG?
When Pedro had his utterly overpowering years, similar to Bauer’s 2020, he managed to replicate for a number of years afterward. Maybe Bauer can be close to 2020 for a few stellar years.
Geez, I hope that guy signs soon - with somebody else! I am completely in agreement with Herb. Get Walker (and)/or Gray and let's move on to the bigger issues, like centerfield defense, and most of the infield defense, which I don't have a clue how to solve.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I see the starting pitching as about the 5th or 6th priority.
Just one last point to needle Tom's fascination with won-loss records a little bit, in the last two years Bauer was just 16-17, including just 5-4 in his supposedly sensational 2020. Not a $30M guy.
Tom, Pedro was an absolute superstar before he ever got to the Mets. In 7 years in Boston he had a 2.45 FIP, a 190 ERA+, a sub 1.00 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9. That is over 7 consecutive years. How can you even mention Bauer in the same sentence as Martinez? (No disrespect intended.)
ReplyDeleteHerb, with due respect, I only mentioned that Bauer's 2020 numbers were numbers that Pedro in his prime would have been proud to call his own. Bauer is not, and never will be, Pedro. Heck, even Jake deGrom falls short of Pedro. Pedro was better than Seaver in his peak seasons. Not his whole career, but in his peak season stretch.
ReplyDelete