WHOOSH!!!! SWISH!!!!
The Mets just got speedy lefty hitting OF Khalil Lee as part of a trade.
It has also been pointed out by some that he strikes out a lot.
Making him speedy (whoosh!) and strikeout-prone (swish!)
In 2019, he fanned 154 times in 129 games.
That level of Ks? Not good, at least on the surface.
But a smidgeon of perspective is needed.
Being a speedster, he no doubt hit at the top of the line up, as he was up 546 times in those 129 games.
Yes, 154 Ks in 546 plate appearances is still high. Not stratospheric, though.
And, as with any player, degree of difficulty matters.
You see, he started, and played, that entire season in AA ball, a high level for someone who started that season at the age of 21 years and 9 months.
He hit .264/.363/.372 in AA with a Mookie-like 53 steals in 65 chances.
Compare him to two current major leaguers at the same age.
PETE ALONSO: debuted in the minors in rookie ball at 21 years, 6 months, essentially the same age as Lee in AA.
JEFF MCNEIL: debuted in Kingsport rookie ball at 21 years, 3 months, essentially the same age as Lee in AA.
And three speedsters:
CHAMP STUART: at the same age as Lee was when he played in AA, Stuart was in Low A ball, where he had a similar K rate and somewhat lower split, 2 levels lower than Lee.
Champ a few years later never achieved in AA anything close to what Lee achieved at age 21, and Champ is now retired.
JOHNESHWY FARGAS: at 21 years 3 months, he played that season mostly at low A, and a third of his season at High A. At high A that year, still a level lower than Lee, he barely hit at .172/.255/.216. He made it to AA at age 24, and put up lower numbers than Lee did at age 21, .249/.325/.334, albeit with a somewhat lower K rate.
He actually had a very similar season at age 21 to one that former Met Matt den Dekker put up at age 23, strikeouts and all. Keep in mind that Lee achieved that 2 years younger than Matt (and Matt split his time between A and AA that year, not all in AA as in Lee’s case.)
CONCLUSION: you cannot look at Lee's K numbers in isolation. He was playing at that high level as a 21 year old, as is demonstrated by this comparison.
Whether his strikeout rate remains high and a large obstacle to his progress, only time will tell. But the speed is very attractive, and his AA OBP of .363 that year was very solid. But...
One guy who it appears he does not quite measure up to is recent Met acquiree and former Mariner Mallex Smith. At age 21, albeit in A ball, he put up better numbers than Lee. Ditto at 22 in AA. Also blazingly fast.
And a big BUT...Smith struck out a lot less in the minors than Lee has. The Ks even started to catch up to Mallex in 2019 with the Mariners, and his stock dropped quickly there. So Lee wants to cut those Ks down to the Mallex Smith minors range if he wants to eventually get some really decent amount of big league playing time, like Smith (who has 1,654 MLB plate appearances) has had.
Khalil - just to be clear - immediately slotted in Mets.com as the Mets' # 7 prospect, showing there is real quality there.
Fargas and Mangum? Neither currently are in the Mets' top 30.
Defensively, Lee was strong in 2019 and, yes, he played that pesky outfield spot called center field quite a bit.
And, of course, I care what you think. But I care about what Zach Scott thinks more, since he is the guy driving the trade bus, and according to Mike Puma of the NY Post, here's what Scott thinks:
“With my connections to Boston, quite frankly, they (Kansas City) know that I liked Khalil Lee. They reached out and asked if there would be interest here. We were excited. Our pro scouts here really liked the player. A lot of tools and athleticism. We liked a lot of things about his performance as well.”
Me? I look forward to seeing what Lee can produce in 2021, most likely in AAA, and whether he can reduce that K rate as a 23 year old to Mallex Smith (or lower) levels. Maybe he can be the next...Kevin Pillar?
My suggestion to Khalil:
The next time you have a wooden conversation with a baseball, tell it you wish to remain in frequent contact.
OK. I know. Gotta go now.
From Prospects 1500’s trade analysis:
ReplyDelete“ Blessed with a nice blend of power and easy speed, Lee seemed destined to make it to the big leagues in 2021. It was just 2 years ago, the last full minor league season, that Lee finished 2nd in stolen bases with 53, among all minor leaguers!”
Further, Lee has a strong arm with 90+ mph throws and he adjusted his swing for more loft. Kansas City did not know where Lee was going because Boston brokered the trade and ‘hooked up’ one of their guys in former long-time employee, Zach Scott. Yes, the Mets had to give up something and still a player to be named, but this was a nice insert into the prospect rankings and a shiny new toy that I can’t wait to see play.
I like this acquisition.
ReplyDeleteLee offers immediate upgrading in the system.
Tom - I believe it was Keith Law in the Athletic that had a great analysis of Khalil. He pointed to his excellent OBP every where he played (.356 in 1,884 career plate appearances) and noted that his patience at the plate often gets him into 2 strike counts which leads to his hugh K rate. I think it will be very interesting to see how he develops.
ReplyDeleteJohn from Albany: I was just going to make that same point.
ReplyDeleteIt's something we see in Nimmo, too.
People who walk a lot will often put themselves into two-strike counts. They take pitches. If NOT striking out was the goal, they could acheive that by swinging earlier, and more often, at the expense of OBA.
No thanks!
With Lee we are seeing his OBA about .100 above his BA -- that's excellent. But it's going to come with higher-than-usual strikeouts. Not a big worry for me, and not at all where I'd focus.
I like a fast guy who is willing to work out a walk, find a way to first base. For Lee, give me good defense and a high OBA; I don't care how he makes out.
BTW: I am a firm believer that teams need a diversity of talent, personalities, a range of approaches. I wouldn't want everyone to be a deep-count hitter. I love McNeil's grip-it-and-rip-it approach. I personally believe that Sandy, during his first failed tenure, was so focused on deep count hitting, that he disliked Murphy's approach and that Travis d'Arnaud was never able to thrive because he didn't fit the formula. He kept trying to serve his masters rather than . . . just swing the bat. Not everyone can fit into the Nimmo mold and it is a mistake to try to make everyone do so. With Lee, it seems like the Mets have obtained another one of those hitters: I like it very much in a fast baserunner who embraces the role of table-setter.
As I said at the time, I loved this trade. The idea of it. In his previous tenure, this was exactly the kind of trade that Sandy never, ever made. It was so frustrating to not have any outfielders and watch, year after year, as Sandy did little to address weaknesses in the system. He was a GM who, being extremely conseravtive, simply did not transact very much. Also, as we are seeing, he's just not very interested or good on the margins. This was the work of Scott, apparently. Very glad to see it, and good for Sandy to let it happen. In addition, the team (Cohen) threw money into the deal, I believe, which is why we got back (on paper) a better prospect than we gave up (though time will tell).
I am encouraged when they get the little things right.
Jimmy
Lee may turn out to be a good prospect, time will tell. However, if he is rated # 7, our farm system is worst than i thought.
ReplyDeleteI also like the Lee deal. He seems to be a very real potential successor in right field if Boras plays real hardball and somebody else ponies up crazy money for Conforto.
ReplyDeleteAnd of course one other key to this deal is the PTBNL. I saw something that it is thought that the player would be prospect inside the top 15. I am not sure what determines it - is there any future performance tied to it? Anybody know?
1969 - The word is that the Red Sox wanted to see the PTBNL in action this Spring before they made a decision on you would be included in the trade. It could be one of the prospects invited to the MLB camp.
ReplyDeleteI like this deal a whole lot as well, it just depend on who the PTBNL is?
ReplyDeleteSince we looked at his numbers compared to other speedsters in our organization, was wondering what his numbers were matched up to Nimmo at the same age? They sound like very similar players. They both came up playing center, have about the same power, strike out a ton and a high OBP. Lee has a whole lot more speed is the only difference it seems. Maybe he will take his spot in the future?
Great points on Lee, gentlemen. Especially on the OBP. He is quite similar in that regard to Brandon Nimmo who, in the minors, was brought along more slowly but still fanned almost once a game. He wanted the walks. So does Lee.
ReplyDeleteIf Lee had played one level down in 2019, perhaps his K rate would have been much more within a normal range.
Based on your feedback, I get the sense he could be a truly solid major leaguer. And, with Nimmo getting pricier, maybe a year from now, Nimmo goes in a trade and the similar playing Lee has developed a lot more and steps in.
I'd like to see Nimmo, Conforto and Smith stay. Just to be clear.
On Lee:
ReplyDeleteWho knows!
I wish he could play CF.
Corner outfielders who don't have power are rare. If he can't drive the ball, or play CF, hard to see that as a valuable starting outfielder in the Majors.
Time will tell.
Jimmy