The Mets have reportedly shown interest in veteran free agent Tyler Flowers. Flowers, having played with the Braves for the past five seasons, is very familiar with the Mets and the rest of the NL East. Coming off of a shortened season, teams will need depth more than ever and Flowers would be a valuable addition to a rather weak position in the organization.
The Mets currently have a respectable starting catcher in James McCann, who was productive with both the stick and the glove last year. McCann has never started more than 114 games at the catching position in his career and his backup, Tomas Nido, has only made more than 30 starts once. Nido is not someone to count on for offensive production (career .239 wOBA) but is an above-average fielder with a very strong arm.
Behind McCann and Nido in the depth chart, things get a bit murky. Caleb Joseph, who just joined the Mets in late February, looks like the third-string catcher. Last year, he spent most of the season on the Blue Jays' taxi squad and appeared in only 3 games, going 1-8 with a walk and a home run. Joseph hasn't fared very well recently in his career, accumulating just 0.1 WAR over his last 243 games played. His defensive skills have weakened as well, making him someone you would not want to lean on for more than a few games.
After Joseph come two inexperienced players. Bruce Maxwell, another depth signing from early in the offseason, hasn't appeared in the majors since 2018. Patrick Mazeika is also part of the 40-man roster but has never appeared in a game above AA. Top prospect Francisco Alvarez is only 19 years old and has only seen professional action in rookie ball.
In short, if McCann were to get injured, this team's catching situation could get ugly.
If the Mets are looking to address the lack of organizational depth behind the dish, Tyler Flowers is clearly the best remaining free agent option. The only other remaining free agents who played in the majors last season are Matt Wieters and old friend Rene Rivera, who combined for 0.1 WAR in 2020.
Flowers has been serviceable offensively throughout his career but has turned it up a notch in recent seasons with the Braves. From 2017-19, he slashed .248/.348/.409. Among 51 catchers with at least 500 plate appearances over that time frame, Flowers's 101 wRC+ and .330 wOBA were both 12th-best. In a time when teams are only seeing a catcher's offensive production as a bonus rather than a core part of his game, Tyler has quietly been a solid hitter and would provide a playable right-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. However, Flowers's offense isn't even the primary part of his game.
Throughout his career, Flowers has gained the reputation for being an elite defender, and much of that comes from his incredible framing skills. In 2019, his last full season, Flowers had the 5th-best strike rate on pitches around the edges of the zone, getting the call 52.9% of the time. That season, he also had the highest Runs Extra Strikes value (or RES for short), a cumulative metric that converts strikes to runs saved on a .125 run/strike basis. Flowers had +15 RES while receiving only 2252 pitches that year, more than 400 fewer pitches than anyone else in the top 5 in Runs Extra Strikes.
Flowers was in the top 4 in RES every year from 2017-19, with his best season coming in 2018. Since 2015, he is second-best, only behind Yasmani Grandal, but Grandal has caught over 5000 more pitches over that span. In fact, the two have nearly identical RES/pitch rates.
His elite framing and solid offense added up to 9.0 WAR from 2017-19. Only JT Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal had higher WAR numbers, but Flowers had only 266 GP while Realmuto and Grandal had 411 and 422, respectively. Looking at his WAR on a per-game basis, though, reveals that Flowers was actually better than Grandal and right up there with Realmuto. Flowers looking great on a rate basis seems to be a common trend here.
The reason Flowers hasn't signed yet is likely due to his asking price. Looking at these statistics, it wouldn't be surprising if Flowers wants north of $5 million dollars, even if he will most likely be a backup option. Most teams may not want to hand out that much to a backup after losing revenue in 2020. New Mets owner Steve Cohen has not been too concerned with the effects of last year, as the Mets have been one of the most aggressive teams on the market. He and Sandy Alderson were willing to shell out a loaded deal to starting pitcher Trevor Bauer fairly recently, so the Mets should easily have enough room in the budget to afford Flowers's asking price.
Aidan - nice piece.
ReplyDeleteOn Flowers, I see an aging catcher (two words that are a flashing warning sign) who fanned 34 times in 80 plate appearances last year, a ghastly amount. And now he is a year older.
I would not mind signing him for $1 or $2 million, with incentives, but no more. His bat has been heading south as he ages, as do most catchers' bats.
Almost all the great catchers (Bench, Carter, etc.) show deterioration at the plate at that age.
Maybe I am wrong, and I have been hard on Nido, but maybe yesterday we saw that Nido may be ready to be an asset at # 2.
I am also very frustrated with Mazeika's situation - last two spring trainings, he was 9 for 23, with 4 walks, 4 XBH, and just 4 Ks, and he seems to get no respect.
We need to pray that McCann stays healthy. Even a Flowers pressed into service as a # 1 for a few months due to injury would be discomforting to me, and no doubt to Mets fans.
I am hoping that David Rodriguez can parlay his great winter ball into something tangible at the big league level soon, but he seems to be # 4on the catcher depth chart right now.
Unless the Mets are willing to carry 3 Catchers on the ML roster, I don't see a fit for Flowers. He could be useful as a mentor for Mazeika and the young pitchers if he'll stay upstate for callup if needed, I'd go for it. But replacing Nido, who is out of options, is not the way to go.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand this obsession with old failed catchers.
ReplyDeleteWe have like 456 catchers in camp.
Nido is our backup.
Can we get back to the bullpen please?
Mack--👏👏👏
ReplyDelete"His elite framing and solid offense added up to 9.0 WAR from 2017-19."
ReplyDeleteIt's a stretch, wishful thinking, when deciding how to project Flowers' 2021 to lump in 2017 with 2018 and 2019 while omitting 2020 from his record, particularly for a 35 year old who looks very much like he has settled in to a new, lower level of offense with an OPS+ of 86 since the end of 2017 (90, 85, 77, respectively).
Still, he might be a small step up over Nido, Maxwell, and their cohort.
The real problem is Alderson's weak offseason. The top of the pitching staff and bullpen is older than many and, past deGrom, had a history of spotty performance and injury--we're already seeing the fruits of the FO's less than optimal roster construction with Carrasco and Lugo's injuries, although in fairness those were more likely to occur later in the season than before the season began.
Btw, imagine spending 4-5m on Flowers and 10.25m on McCann, when Realmuto went for 23.1m. That's typical, though. of how Alderson misjudged things. The Mets needed two very good, durable starting pitchers and instead wound up with Carrasco, who is very good, and Walker, who is neither durable nor very good. The Mets also needed a top-flight CFer, C, bullpen arm, and a serious upgrade at 3B and... got a fine SS, instead.
Hand went for 10.5m. The Mets got May and Gsellmen, instead. JBJ went for 13m but the Mets got two likely replacement level players in Pillar and Almora, neither of whom can still play CF, for around 6.5m. The Mets offseason was so badly organized that when Alderson's last minute misjudgment of the market for Bauer collapsed, he settled for Taijuan Walker, instead, even though Walker's record is that of the mediocre Jose Quintana but without Quintana's main attribute, durability. Then after they paid Walker 2/20+m, the Mets saw Odorizzi head to Houston for a 7.83m AAV. Lindor's an excellent 4-5 win player at this point, but the Mets already had a very promising, very young, very very cheap SS who won't require 10/300m to hang onto until his age 37 season---meanwhile Arenado went for 6/150 at a position of far, far greater need. Malfeasance after malfeasance.
The Mets aren't up against the luxury tax so they might as well get Flowers to compensate for other, self-inflicted wounds. Still, when "might as well" is where you've put yourself, you haven't done well. The argument for the alternative is that Flowers is probably only a modest upgrade at this point, and with the Mets likely to need serious improvement to get past LAD, San Diego, and the Yankees they should hang on to their current $16m worth of room under the 40-man CBT threshold.
Either way, this is another one of Alderson's poorly built teams. He also had all offseason to improve one of the worst defenses in MLB, and failed. Andres Giminez outfielded Lindor according to OAA, so 100-110 games from McCann represents their only real upgrade on defense. Meanwhile the Mets plan to use Smith and Davis as their primary LFer and 3Bman, negating any gains from McCann.
When's the last time a team with a defense as bad as the Mets won the World Series?
Jack Strawb
ReplyDeleteNice comment.
It would have made a great post.
Any desire to become a writer here?
Email me at: macksmets.blogspot.com so we can discuss.
Mack