Aidan Cooke - Mets Have Quietly Improved Their Baserunning Through Several Depth Signings

    It's no secret that baserunning has been one of the Mets' primary weaknesses for the better part of the decade. There has been no shortage of mental mistakes or miscues on the basepaths for the Mets, and oftentimes they make a drastic difference in close ballgames. As the front office built up depth this season, one need they addressed was baserunning, specifically in their signings of Jonathon Villar, Kevin Pillar, and Mallex Smith.

    Jonathon Villar was an interesting addition to this team, coming aboard on a one-year, $3.55 million contract. Villar is a nice bench piece, as he has the ability to play every infield position. What makes him a valuable piece to this Mets team and sets him apart from someone like Luis Guillorme is his ability to run the bases. From 2016-2019, Villar averaged 40 stolen bases per season, while the Mets collectively averaged about 57 over the same span. Additionally, Villar led the majors in stolen bases in 2016 and from 2018-20. What's interesting about Villar is that his speed has never been truly elite. He usually sits around the 75th percentile in sprint speed, averaging 27.6 feet per second since 2018 and peaking at 28 ft/second in 2019. This suggests that Villar combines his above-average speed with outstanding baserunning instincts to accumulate a high number of steals. Hopefully, Villar will be able to pass on some of his wisdom to the rest of the clubhouse and elevate other players.

    Kevin Pillar is another veteran name who joined the Mets as a depth piece. He has always had the reputation of being a good defender and should be an improvement over Brandon Nimmo in center field or Dominic Smith in left when he comes in as a late defensive replacement or makes an occasional start. While his defensive abilities address a large hole in the roster, Pillar's baserunning skills also fill a need. He has had a slightly better average sprint speed than Jonathon Villar since 2018, running at 27.9 feet/second. Pillar may also get the most playing time of any of the players mentioned in this article, as he looks most likely to be the 4th outfielder on opening day.

    Another outfielder brought into the organization was Mallex Smith, who signed a minor league deal back in November. Smith may not be a name that many Mets fans recognize, but he actually led the major leagues in stolen bases in 2019 with 46. Unlike Pillar and Villar, Smith is one of the fastest players in the game. In 2019 (his last full season), Smith ran at an average of 29.5 feet per second, placing him 23rd among 564 qualified position players. From 2018-19, Smith swiped a league-leading 86 bases. The next-closest was Trea Turner with only 78. Smith was never able to get it going last season, slashing .133/.170/.178, but those numbers look like the result of an unfortunate 14-game sample size. Nonetheless, Mallex has never been a consistent offensive threat and should begin the year in Syracuse, but when the rosters expand in September, Smith could definitely find himself with the major league club. In a division race that will likely go down to the wire among the Mets, Braves, Phillies, and Nationals, the Mets will be looking for any edge they can get late in the year, and having Smith on the bench as a pinch-runner could prove to be quite valuable. They witnessed first-hand in 2015 how effective good baserunning can be in the playoffs, and perhaps Smith could sneak his way onto the postseason roster. 

    For fans of advanced metrics, Fangraphs' BsR value is a statistic to measure players' cumulative baserunning contributions. Looking at the top ten in BsR from the last three seasons, you'll see some of the usual suspects, like Mike Trout, Trea Turner, and Ronald Acuña Jr. You'll also be able to find Mallex Smith, Jonathon Villar, and Kevin Pillar, who come in at 4th, 5th, and 10th, respectively, among 164 qualified position players. Their high BsR values suggest that they are not only good at snagging bases, but their skills also translate into running the bases as a whole. 

    Even if you aren't a fan of who the Mets acquired, looking at who the team got rid of certainly inspires confidence. Wilson Ramos, the team's starting catcher from 2019-20, had been rough to watch. Even if Ramos was standing on second base, he was never truly in "scoring position." Over the last three seasons, Ramos's -19.1 BsR value is the worst in baseball by a large margin. Additionally, in the 564 qualified players in sprint speed from 2019 mentioned earlier, Ramos ranked 561st. His replacement, James McCann, runs more than 3 feet/second faster than Ramos, a notable improvement. Some other subtractions from last season's roster, Robinson Chirinos, Robinson Cano, and Todd Frazier, all ranked worse than 410th of 454 qualified players in sprint speed last season.

    These signings are not going to vault the Mets towards the top of the standings in stolen base numbers, and none of these players will be regular starters (barring some major injuries). But it does definitely feel nice knowing there are solid pinch-running options coming off the bench for the Amazins that will have a positive effect and score some important runs this year.