Mack's Mock Pick # 48 - LHP - Doug Nikhazy

 

Doug Nikhazy

Mack's spin - 

I probably have Nikhazy a little early here, especially after his slow start this year.

He's a small control pitcher who relies on targeting rather than velocity. 

You can see by his high K/9 ratio that he has been successful at missing bats.

 

LHP      5-10      205      Ole Miss 

 

2020 Ole Miss stat line - 4-starts, 3-1, 2.35, 23-IP, 31-K, 9-BB

 

Current 2021 stat line thru 3-19:  3-starts, 1-1, 4.15, 1.15, 13-IP, 22-K, 7-BB 

 

1-20-21 - D1 Baseball's top 100 College Prospects -

 

91 Doug Nikhazy LHP Ole Miss SEC 

 

1-14-21  -  Baseball America

 

Doug Nikhazy

 

Mississippi LHP

 

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.9

 

Nikhazy was a freshman All-American in 2019, when he set the Ole Miss freshman record with 86 strikeouts in 89.2 innings of work. He posted a 3.31 ERA on the season in a mostly starting role, before getting off to another solid start in the shortened 2020 season, with a 2.35 ERA through 23 innings and four starts. An undersized lefthander listed at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, Nikhazy doesn’t have a single plus offering, but he has good feel for a solid three-pitch mix. He throws a fastball in the 89-91 mph range that has some running life out of a high, three-quarter slot, and he has solid feel for a 12-to-6 curveball in the mid 70s. Nikhazy has also thrown a low-80s changeup that has some fading life, and he’s also occasionally thrown a mid-80s slider, though it’s a distant fourth offering in terms of usage. Nikhazy does have some track record and pitched seven innings for the 2019 Collegiate National Team, but will likely be more of a third round arm in the draft due to his size and lack of upside. 

 

1-5-21 - PG - College Pre Season All Americans -

 

Starting Pitcher - Doug Nikhazy, Mississippi

 

Another bona fide Friday night SEC arm, Nikhazy will not only lead a talented Rebels team but forms one of the best pitching duos in the country along with teammate Gunnar Hoglund. He had tremendous success as a true freshman starting out right away in the weekend rotation before looking like a true ace in the shortened 2020 season. Nikhazy won’t blow you away with his size nor his stuff, he’s 5-foot-10 and has a fastball that sits right around the low-90s, but he knows how to pitch and his fastball has excellent spin metrics along with his bread-and-butter plus curveball. Nikhazy has been one of the more reliable arms in the SEC over the last two seasons and it won’t be surprising to see him be uber-consistent once more for the Rebels during the 2021 spring. 

 

12-17-20 - mlb -

 

Q - Some high school players not on the Top 100 that could climb up boards?

 

Jim Callis: I'll tag-team on this question with non-Top 100 guys from my half of the country who could move up ... Alabama HS LHP Maddux Bruns (huge ceiling), Louisiana HS SS Peyton Stovall, South Carolina HS RHP Daniel Brooks, Mississippi LHP Doug Nikhazy (high floor guy). 

 

12-3-20  -  Perfect Game combined their picks for the first two rounds in this mock draft  -

 

27. San Diego Padres | Doug Nikhazy, lhp, Mississippi | (2/56) Noah Cardenas, c, UCLA

 

Nikhazy has been a rock for Ole Miss since his freshman campaign in 2019, setting the school record for strikeouts by a freshman with 86. His K/9 rate doesn’t jump off the page, but his stuff is strong enough to generate consistent outs in the SEC which will of course gain attention. An argument can be made that Cardenas is the best defensive catcher in this class with a feel behind the dish beyond his years. Cardenas has the ability to both steal strikes and throw runners out from a multitude of crouches and slots. If Cardenas puts together anything close to what he did in 2019 at the plate, expect his name to appear far higher on this list. -Connor Spencer

 

Sakowski’s Take: Nikhazy represents an interesting play, with stuff that doesn’t wow on the surface but with metrics that say no-doubt first rounder. His success in the SEC to date stands out as well, and should be in line for a selection in this range with a strong spring. Cardenas, as Connor mentioned, is a standout defender behind the plate with intriguing offensive tools to boot, and should he hit in a big way in 2021, his stock is likely to rise up beyond the mid-50s.

 

 

11-11-20 - Prospects Live Top 300 Prospect List -

 

49. Doug Nikhazy - LHP

 

Bio:

 

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200 lbs

Hits/Throws: L-L

Hometown: Windermere, FL

School: Mississippi

 

What Nikhazy lacks in physical stature he makes up for in pitchability and arsenal. The fastball is generally just 88-91 but works well at the top of the zone with some run and tilt. His curveball is likely his second best offering; a big bender with plenty of depth though it can get loopy when he doesn't finish through the pitch. Nikhazy also offers a slider and changeup that have flashed average, though neither is a consistent offering yet. Despite the lower velo, Nikhazy does have some head-whack and effort in the delivery, though free passes have yet to bite him. 

 

Prospect Live -

  

Ole Miss’ new starman is underrated given what he shows us analytically for 2021. He has a relatively quick windup, but comes down the hill beautifully. Nikhazy has a very smooth and repeatable release, and maintains balance very well throughout.

 

The biggest eye opener is his extension, which at nearly 7 feet is the largest in relation to body size amongst top prospects (he is only 5’10’’). The low spin rate and plus movement on his low 90s fastball suggest high efficiency and a very good pitch axis (12 o clock= ideal). He has a nice hooking breaking ball (around 2500rpm) that compliments the heater well. Nikhazy also has a curve in his arsenal, and he does a very good job with his changeup (both drop with a slight running action to the arm side on the change). Three of his four pitches are completely fine tuned, with the slider still looking raw at times.

 

Before the coronavirus shutdown, Doug had a nice 12.1 K/9 with a 0.78 WHIP. Nikhazy reminds me a lot of a younger Jason Vargas (left hander with not the greatest of fastballs or spin rates, but locates extremely well with his offspeed pitches and gets enough action on the fastball). He won’t be a top of the line starter, but definitely can project out into a big league rotation on the back end as a reliable lefty arm.

 

While he is known to be a good kid, it has to be mentioned that in February he was arrested on a DUI charge. It was his first criminal offense, and given his knowledge of the direction his career is going, I would not expect him to make further mistakes. Nikhazy should still go around the 2nd round as expected. 

 

Ole Miss -

 

2020 (Sophomore): Season cut short due to the spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19 … Rebel Friday night starter in all four weekend series … Named 2020 Preseason All-American (Collegiate Baseball, NCBWA) … Worked to a 3-1 record, 2.35 ERA with 31 strikeouts and nine walks over 23.0 IP … Recorded a .120 WHIP, lowest among all starters … Went at least 5.0 IP in every single start … Named SEC Pitcher of the Week after going 6.0 no-hit innings with nine strikeouts in combined no-hitter of Xavier (2/21) … Went 5.1 IP with four runs allowed in Rebels’ only loss of the year in the season opener vs. No. 1 Louisville working against the Cardinals’ ace Reid Detmers (2/14) … Picked up second win of the year vs. High Point (2/28) … Did not allow a hit or run in 6.0 IP in rout over Princeton (3/6).

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