Mike's Mets - Welcome to the New Dead Ball Era

 

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By Mike Steffanos March 12, 2021

Much of the talk around baseball this spring has centered around changes that MLB has made to the ball in an effort to bring the home run numbers back down from their historic highs last season. MLB claims that the changes made were relatively minor, but players are concerned that the changes could prove significant. Since top home run hitters receive more money, a leaguewide drop in home run totals could mean less money in player contracts next year. Right now, no one knows exactly what will happen. It's hard to tell by what's happening in spring training, as players are still honing their swings, and the baseballs currently in use are mostly leftovers from last year.

Peter Gammons has an interesting look in The Athletic at the latest drama surrounding the "new" baseball. The truth is that we're really going to know just how much the game will be changed by the ball until the season starts and they start using them. Even then, it won't be until things really warm up in May that we'll start being able to judge the impact.

While MLB claims that the new balls will only travel 2-3 feet less, Gammons quoted one unnamed GM that players are worried that the reduction might be more like 6-10 feet. While the lower number would certainly cut down on many of the cheaper home runs we witnessed in 2020, the bigger number would change the game of baseball as we know it. Every hitter will soon know the joy David Wright experienced in 2009 when Fred and Jeff Wilpon decided the build a new ballpark that penalized their best player.

I'm not a fan of what the game has become over the last few years, but it's a change that's been in progress for decades. Too many at-bats end in walks, strikeouts, or home runs. Particularly when the best pitchers are on the mound, many minutes can go by without substantial game action. Long term, MLB undoubtedly needs to reverse this trend, but just cutting down on home runs this season won't make the game any more interesting.

What will be interesting to watch, especially if that 6-10 foot reduction in fly ball travel becomes a reality, is what adjustments players who have adopted the launch angle approach to hitting might be forced to make as their fly balls find leather and their batting averages plummet. While true power hitters like Pete Alonso still will get their share of longballs, players with more fringy power might find that their approach at the plate has become untenable.

Take a player like Tomás Nido, who spent thousands of his own money to work with a swing coach to adopt the popular launch angle swing and revitalize his offensive game. Nido has always had more than enough defensive skills to be a good Major League backup catcher. The problem has been that his offense lagged so far behind. With a lifetime batting line of .197/.234/.319 and an OPS+ of 49 in 4 major league seasons, Tomás looked like a quintessential Quad-A player. While we still need to see Nido be offensively productive over a full season at backup catcher, he has some hopes of putting together a decent Major League career.

If the changes to the ball this season prove significant, that promise that Tomás Nido showed last season might be washed away. It might even cost him a Major League career. I acknowledge that this is somewhat of a worst-case scenario for hitters, but you could understand the concern.

Based on what we've seen before, I would expect a more modest change than the worst-case projections for ball travel. I think MLB acknowledges that home runs were a little too easy to hit last season and doesn't want to see another year of all-time home run numbers. On the other hand, I doubt very much that they want a new dead ball controversy to take its place. But then again, they've been caught by surprise in other seasons by what they thought were small changes to the ball, leading to outsized results.

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