How much rope does a player get before he either hangs
himself with it or the team cuts him loose?
The question arises after the less-than-stellar performances by the two more
senior statesmen of the Mets bullpen, Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances. At ages 31 and 33 respectively, you’d think
they have a lot of baseball left to play, but neither has been good for quite
some time. In Familia’s case it merely
appears to be rust and his dissatisfaction with his now $11.7 million payday to
set up rather than close games. For
Betances, it’s still the long road back from a serious injury which has taken
its toll on his control, his velocity and his performance.
For those folks who didn’t see the game on Thursday in which
they both were highly volatile, the numbers are pretty ugly. For Familia, he appeared in one inning and
issued two walks (which has been the bane of his existence since 2017). He was
able to wriggle out of it with no hits, no strikeouts and no runs scoring, but
it took some tips of the cap to his otherwise non-spectacular defensive guys to
help achieve that minor pitching miracle.
In the case of Betances, it was even worse. He too turned in a shortened single inning of pitching
during which he allowed four runs to score which included two walks, two hits
(one of which left the yard) and gave him a thus-far spring training ERA of
36.00. Granted, the misplayed ball in the outfield didn't help. Ironically, he got the win as he
happened to be the pitcher of record when the Mets turned it around on the long
ball. His velocity is up significantly
from last season when he was in the high 80s and now he’s over 93. He still has to get faster to repeat what he
did for the Yankees.
Obviously after just one game each you can’t push the panic
button, but the pattern has been there for much longer with both pitchers. Last season was a lost cause for Betances
entirely, and although Familia showed some improvement over his horrendous 2019
Mets sequel to his earlier career in Queens, he was not star quality (or 8-figure)
worthy on the mound either.
Oddly, I have more confidence in redevelopment by Betances
than I do in a sudden surge of competency by Familia. Prior to his injury, Betances was a truly
amazing pitcher with a 21-22 record, a 2.36 career ERA, 14.6 Ks per 9 IP, a
WHIP of just a tick over 1.000, and four All Star Game appearances in his first
five full years of baseball. That’s
quality in anyone’s book and it’s difficult to find someone who can put up those
kinds of numbers. Everyone has seen
stellar pitchers get sidetracked by injuries.
Many come back. Some never do.
In the case of strange baseball economics, Familia earns
nearly double what Betances does given that the Mets tried to swoop in on him
as a bargain flyer knowing he would need rehab time. Given the situations with the two pitchers, I
am more confident in a Betances recovery to greatness than I am in a Familia adaptation
to his non-glamorous role as a setup guy.
He was never good in non-save situations in the past, so it seemed a bit
odd that the Mets would cast him in that position when they brought him
back. Then again, Brodie Van Wagenen is
no longer here to make that kind of bad decision.
Right now as much as people might like to see both of them
shoved out of the bullpen and onto the street, the untimely injury to Seth Lugo
makes it a virtual impossibility.
Furthermore, with the salaries being paid to both of them, it’s highly
unlikely anyone on another club is going to want to assume the paycheck
responsibility unless the Mets sweeten the deal with prospects or buying down
the contracts. So as much as it would
likely help the club to end games with reliable arms, it’s going to be a lot of
holding of your breath for the first month or so of the season until Lugo is
ready to return to the pen.
Reese, as we know, Familia and Betances represent a ton of sunk money. If we had sought to sign them this off season, we either would have (most likely) passed or paid them about 20% of what they will be getting in hopes of a snap back.
ReplyDeleteThat said, a lot of pitchers throw faster as the spring rolls on, and I think Betances will add a few MPH, which won't get him back to Yankee glory days velocity but will make him tougher.. Assuming he can still break off that lethal slider of his, there could be hope for a solid 2021 out of him. Then again, Matt Harvey has similarly lost some velocity and had a similar first outing. Betances has to prove it to me.
I saw one of John's postings the other day and at a glance said two positive things: first, Familia said he really loves the game, and two, he is working on a rising fastball to go with the sinker, which hopefully will make him more effective. I think a big part of his walks was that he was too predictable with sinkers dropping out of the strike zone, where hitters just take the ball and don't swing. Maybe if his FB may go up or down, he will have the hitters off balance more.
Let's see where these 2 dudes are in 3 weeks.
I am aware of no evidence that Familia has ever expressed "dissatisfaction" with his salary or his role.
ReplyDeleteZero, none.
Are you just making that up to impugn the player? Why?
Or do you have any link, quote, article, anything to support that claim?
Jimmy
One thing I have always said is that the bullpen a team starts out with in April is not usually representative of the one they have at the end of May.
ReplyDeleteA lot of these pieces will shift.
April could be scary, because starters typically do not go long the first few starts; we'll need to lean on the pen. It is unfortunate, once again, that AAA season has been pushed back a month. Would be great if, say, McWilliams could learn how to pitch down there for a while longer.
In Sandy's defense, he inherited Betances and Familia. The option is either cut them and pay full salary . . . or see if there's anything left in the tank. Regretfully, their presence possibly blocked the signing of other free agent relievers. It was a decision that Sandy made to hold firm. That is in keeping with his long-held strategies of patience to a fault. OTOH, fans are always screaming for moves far too soon and far too loudly. Need to thread that needle between "patience" and "inaction."
Games in April count, too.
It makes sense to me to work with these guys now, bring them along, and hope they can give us . . . something. At a certain point, as Tom said, you sigh, mutter inaudibly about "sunk costs," cut the loses and move on. The added cost, however, might be the additional talent we didn't bring in because these two were already here.
It's not time for that yet. I think both will get a chance in April. The leash will be short.
Jimmy
I'll take the other side of the coin from Reese. I personally, for no real reason, feel that Familia will show value this year while Betances is done.
ReplyDeleteOne of the issues I have with Betances is his size and his mechanics. I read somewhere - and unfortunately cannot find the piece - that his mechanics have been a mess ever since his comeback began, and they weren't all that smooth or consistent before. That is hard to get back.
I'll do a little side bet here that he will not break camp with the team.
The big question will be does this ownership group stay with these two through poor to bad performances to not eat the salaries ( the Wilpon MO) or cut bait and move on?
ReplyDeleteLucchesi could be a bullpen piece. Also, Gilliam, despite his rocky recent outing. I'll give him one stinker here.
ReplyDeleteIf we weren't signing Bauer or Springer, I would have kept Matz and seen if he could have become the next Brad Hand or Ollie Perez out of the pen. But I was 100% done with Matz as a Mets starter. No mas.
Matz would have been a pen gamble, too, but maybe one that would pay off.
On Mets' site, an article on those two included the following, see specifically the word "tremendously", which should be encouraging:
ReplyDelete"For Betances, who spent his winter training at a biomechanics facility in New Jersey, velocity is everything. Known for throwing as hot as 102 mph with the Yankees, he topped out at 96.7 mph last summer and averaged 93.6. That he is already reaching 93 this spring is a positive sign, even if it’s far from his previous heights.
“I feel tremendously better now than I did last year,” Betances said recently, referencing the Achilles tear that he spent last spring rehabbing. “I feel like I finally had a full offseason to get ready for coming to camp.”
@Jimmy -- instead of merely being critical, embrace Google as your friend. From the Daily News when he was returning to the Mets:
ReplyDelete“I’ve (been) a closer for a couple years, at the same time come back to the Mets, told my agent any possibility I wanted to do that,” Familia said.
From the NY Post in 2018:
“I’d love to be a closer. I’ve been a closer for a couple of years,” Familia said.
Reese,
ReplyDeleteYou wrote:
>> In Familia’s case it merely appears to be rust and his dissatisfaction with his now $11.7 million payday to set up rather than close games. <<
This sentence written by you clearly suggests that Familia's supposed unhappiness with his SALARY and his ROLE has played a part in his disappointing performance. That and "rust."
To support your claim, when challenged, you dig up two innocuous sentences from 2018 without any context.
That's weak.
Familia signed with the Mets in the middle of December in 2018 as a setup man. Diaz was already the closer. The ample salary and role were spelled out in the beginning when he signed the contract. Since that time, almost 2 1/2 years later, you are unable to produce A SINGLE COMMENT that suggests his unhappiness with either.
You are posting baseless suppositions designed to paint a player in an unflattering light. You should try to do better than that.
Jimmy
I think Familia's problems are related more to his inability to throw strikes and the inconsistency of his signature sinker than dissatisfaction with his role as a setup man. He knew what the job would be when he came back, and he could have easily won back the closer job in 2019 if he wasn't just as bad as Diaz.
ReplyDeleteI remember this past season, Familia made his first appearance and was awesome, throwing strikes and getting great movement on the sinker. I had hoped that was a sign of things to come, but the very next time out he was the "bad" Familia. I don't know if there's much chance Jeurys can be useful this year. If there is, it will be that Hefner helped him to find some consistency. Maybe it will also help that he's pitching for a contract.
Use Google, Jimmy. My story is based on research already done. That includes his 2018 quotes from two sources saying he wants to close.
ReplyDelete