Earlier in the week we took a look at how the pitchers have
fared in the Spring Training season in Port St. Lucie. Now it’s time to examine the hitters to see
who is hot and who is not.
Leading the charge (which should make a lot of people very
happy) is big Pete Alonso. In his
team-leading 21 ABs he is hitting .333 with a .762 slugging percentage. Obviously these numbers are not sustainable
over the course of a full season, but it sure is good to see him looking
dangerous with a bat in his hand.
Somewhat surprisingly he’s followed closely by Brandon Nimmo. The would-be center fielder is hitting an even loftier .450 with great slugging numbers. The one down side to his performance is that in his 20 ABs he’s only produced a single RBI. He sacrifices one opportunity as a leadoff hitter, but after the first inning his probability of driving in a run should be as good as anyone else’s.
Lost among all of the fanfare about signing big acquisition
Francisco Lindor is the fact that he’s not exactly set the world on fire with
his .158 average. Even though he was
coming off a mediocre season in Cleveland, the fact is his track record is rock
solid and the 19 AB sample is not enough to convince people he’s all of the
sudden become the second offensive coming of Rey Ordonez.
Similarly, you can’t go overboard with the strong initial
showing of catcher James McCann. He’s
hit for a .316 average thus far in the Spring, but he’s not really demonstrated
he is that kind of hitter over the long term.
However, he has shown a much better bat the past couple of years and if
he could manage to hit .270 the Mets would do cartwheels.
Kevin Pillar has been a bit of a pleasant surprise as he was an add-on signing to be a backup to the expected starter, Brandon Nimmo. He’s been a decent hitter in his career, with a .262 batting average and above average defense. The .333 thus far has people playing more attention than was expected.
One starter and one reserve player are both tallying .333
averages thus far. Michael Conforto is
in his walk year, so big things are expected of him. No one really knows what to expect from Luis Guillorme, but only the most critical of all fans are down on him at all.
A trio of normally reputable hitters are also struggling
during this pre-season. Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil and Jonathan Villar are all well under .200. No one is really worrying very much as they
all have demonstrated they can produce impressively at the major league level.
There are some interesting prospects for the future,
including Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos.
If the Mets do wind up signing Lindor to a long term extension, then
these infielders need to figure out who’s going to play where. Mauricio was
hitting .417 and Vientos was hitting .600.
Very encouraging Spring from Pete. Not just the home runs but the walks. .433 on base % as of this morning according to Baseball Reference.
ReplyDeleteYesterday's Lindor blast and Jeff's late double could be breakout points this spring.
ReplyDeleteNimmo has a .500 OBP. Why am I not surprised? He is a GREAT player at getting on base.
ReplyDeleteThe bats are starting to awaken, and the Mets' juggernaut will be firing on all cylinders come opening day. Max Scherzer (who might just start to show age decline) will have his hands full.
Someone posted Mauricio weighed 211 now, not the 166 on his card. He and Vientos may push their way in, in 2022, and push JDD out.
Because of sample size and the unevenness of the competition -- often facing A and AA and AAA players -- the statistics are almost entirely meaningless, pointless.
ReplyDeleteIt's 90% eye test at this point. And I think it's more revealing with pitchers than it is with batters.
Jimmy
Also: To critize Nimmo for having only one RBI -- his home run -- but being too lazy to actually look up how many runners have been on for him during ABs -- to have that criticism even mildly informed by facts -- is awfully weak.
ReplyDeleteWhy bother?
It's like you are looking for something to complain about.
Jimmy
Nimmo has been on base 14 of 28 times. He does deserve plaudits for that. On base machine.
ReplyDelete@Jimmy -- One RBI is one RBI. How can you argue with facts? Oh wait, you do...weakly.
ReplyDeleteReese, you are getting thin-skinned. I say a lot of positive things about players and posts. But you are being intentionally dim here. You know how baseball works.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to make an argument -- rather than an empty complaint -- then state your case. He's gone 0 for X with runners in scoring position. Okay, then maybe that's something. But without any information (because obviously you have no idea), you are just complaining because you like to whine about this particular player.
This is how it worked: 1) YOU wrote a post and made a statement, putting it out in the world for anyone to read; 2) I called you on it. It's not MY job to do the research to prove you wrong.
What should be questioned -- and what you should question about yourself -- is why you are making a negative comment without doing any of the factual background that supports it. Why would you do that? Has he been regularly failing with runners on scoring position? Do you have any idea at all?
Jimmy
For years, I have wished that there were a stat to match RBI with potential RBI (AB with RISP, or something similar), but it doesn't exist, so we can only go by totals.
ReplyDeleteWhat has concerned me about Nimmo is his lack of the "protect the plate with 2 strikes" that Little Leaguers are taught. I cringe when I see him start towards 1B as the ump punches him out. Contrast that with Guillorme's ability to foul off strikes, as he did in the famous 22-pitch AB. He's doing great this Spring, but I still cringe when he does it.
Pete, OTOH, has had the opposite problem - - swinging at pitches out of the zone and being pull-happay at times. I'm very happy with his adjustment so far, using the whole field, and laying off the bad pitches. If he can keep that up, opposing pitchers will have big problems facing him.
And one more time, I'm getting more and more impressed with Guillorme. JDD is under pressure to keep his job, especially in games where Stro or other GB pitchers arevgoing.
Bill,
ReplyDeleteThey have stats for players with RISP and on base. Even stats for RISP with 2 outs late in games. One player I like (that other's here are sceptical about is Jake Mangum. He has a .360 Average with RISP with 2 outs. Granted it was in A-Ball in 2019 but you gotta love that.
In 2019, Pete's great rookie season, he hit .246 with RISP, 12 HRs, 65 RBI's. He was .214 with 2 outs, RISP.
Yes, they have stats for RISP, but that doesn't really translate to what I'm looking for.
ReplyDeleteIf a hitter comes up 20 times with RISP and has 2 hits, he may still have driven in runs with SFs and "productive outs". And if, like Nimmo, he bats leadoff, he has no one on in his 1st AB (obviously), and bats behind the pitcher and #8 hitter in subsequent ones.
BA with RISP still doesn't tell us how many total runners were on base in his season's AB. A #3 or 4 hitter should have many more RBI opps than a #7, 8 or 1. The % of those opps he cashes in is significant. But not available as a stat.
Bill, you need an LOB stat, so you can compare RBIs to LOB. Not sure where you can find a hitter’s total LOB by season, though. I actually thought Pete left more on base than anyone in 2020.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteI think Baseball Reference has the stats that would let you figure out what you are looking for. They have number of at-bats with men on first, first and second, first and third, etc. You can then calculate the number of RBI opportunities versus RBIs (less HR). Is that what you are thinking?
BTW, Mets have been really bad about getting runners home on outs the last few years.
Do you know that there was a team in the Mets organization that emphasized getting runs on outs by making content with runners on scoring position? That they won a championship in 2019? That the Manager and the hitting coach are no longer serving in this sort of function in the organization?
John, not getting very far with your Fonzie lobbying . . :-( I'd like to try to help, but I don't seem to have that power myself.
ReplyDeleteHe would be a great addition. I was hoping he would be their bench coach this year.
The weird thing is that LOB is reported per game in the mlb.com box score. I don't see anywhere where it is accumulated as a stat by itself. I'll go through Nimmmo's numbers and figure out his 'Run Production Ratio'. I'll need to find a couple other guys and do the same for comparison. Maybe Alonso and Lindor. Results pending . . .
ReplyDeleteSo I just did some math and created what I am calling the "Run Production Ratio" or RPR. I calculated 3 different RPR values for 3 different hitters. The three values are:
ReplyDelete* Net RBI for Total Runners on Base
* Net RBI for Total Runners on Base when at least one of them is in scoring position
* Net RBI for Total Runners on Base when at least one of them is on third base
I calc'ed the career values for Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Franciso Lindo.
Nimmo:
Has come to the plate 477 times with runners on base with a total of 663 runners. In those situations, he has 91 RBI with 9 homers for a Net RBI of 62 and an RPR of 82/663 or 0.124
Has come to the plate 288 times with at least one runner in scoring position with a total of 474 runners. Here he has 83 RBI with 6 homers for a Net RBI of 77 and an RPR of 77/474 or .162
Has come to the plate 110 times with at least one runner on third base with a total of 223 runners. Here he has 46 RBI with 2 homers for a Net RBI of 44 and an RPR of 44/223 or .197
Alonso:
Has come to the plate 434 times with runners on base with a total of 597 runners. In those situations, he has 116 RBI with 30 homers for a Net RBI of 86 and an RPR of 86/597 or 0.144
Has come to the plate 238 times with at least one runner in scoring position with a total of 401 runners. Here he has 87 RBI with 18 homers for a Net RBI of 69 and an RPR of 69/401 or .172
Has come to the plate 103 times with at least one runner on third base with a total of 203 runners. Here he has 52 RBI with 7 homers for a Net RBI of 45 and an RPR of 45/203 or .222
Lindor:
Has come to the plate 1349 times with runners on base with a total of 1860 runners. In those situations, he has 313 RBI with 40 homers for a Net RBI of 273 and an RPR of 273/1860 or 0.147
Has come to the plate 826 times with at least one runner in scoring position with a total of 1337 runners. Here he has 267 RBI with 21 homers for a Net RBI of 246 and an RPR of 246/1337 or .184
Has come to the plate 355 times with at least one runner on third base with a total of 680 runners. Here he has 171 RBI with 9 homers for a Net RBI of 162 and an RPR of 162/680 or .238
So, with runners on base Lindor > Alonso > Nimmo for their careers. Since these are the only three players I have ever calculated this for, I don't know what the gold standard for these numbers might be. I should try Hank Aaron.
As guessed, Hank Aaron outhit all of our current favorites:
ReplyDeleteAll situations with runners on base: Aaron's RPR is .170 (1498 net RBI for 8806 runners)
With runners in scoring position: RPR = .216 (1249 net RBI / 5795 runners)
With a runner on third: RPR = .260 (688/2650)
I don't know how you did that, but it's one terrific job!
DeleteJust the kind of stat that I have wished for.
Remember 1969, sounds like an article to me if you were to do one. It is already half written.
ReplyDeleteYes, Tom, I am hoping to do that today - I'd like to add a little detail of the concept
ReplyDeleteSimply Amazing. Great job,
ReplyDelete