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3/31/21

Reese Kaplan -- Suppose Opening Day Comes With No Lindor Deal?


The Mets wouldn’t be the Mets if there wasn’t some potentially embarrassing situation threatening to descend upon them.  It could be front office personnel communicating inappropriately with others, it could be domestic violence episodes from the players or it could be something new entirely.  In this case it happens to be the price paid to obtain one year of service from superstar Francisco Lindor who may or may not sign a long term deal with his new team in Queens.


As a refresher, the Mets gave up shortstops Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, pitcher Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene.  In return, not only did the Mets get Lindor, but also a high quality starting pitcher at moderate salary in Carlos Carrasco.  

The headlines across all of baseball media were effusive in the praise for the Mets, for new owner Steve Cohen and for the fleecing job the front office had done on Cleveland.  Obviously if the Mets received an All Star shortstop in Lindor, there was no need for Rosario (who’d fallen out of favor) or Gimenez who would have no place to play in New York.  

At the time I was my usual pessimistic self in pointing out to anyone who would listen that the Mets needed to secure Lindor with a pre-free agency deal that would keep him in New York for most of the rest of his career.  At just age 27 it would be relatively easy to do functionally by offering up a ten-year deal for major money that would keep him a part of the team pretty much until he would be ready to consider retirement.  

In addition, the previously ill Carlos Carrasco filled a great need, but there were some questions about his potential durability as he made his way back from his 2019 diagnosis of leukemia.  He fought back from it successfully and made his next start in 2020.  Although he only went 3-4 last season, he pitched to a season-long 2.91 ERA and made everyone from Luis Rojas to Jeremy Hefner to the full roster smile upon learning of his arrival.  Of course, no one could have anticipated the hamstring injury that would sideline Carrasco from the start of the 2021 season, but the word is that he’s responding well and hopefully it means a return in late May or early June if they want to be cautious with his recovery.  

The issue right now is not Carrasco, but the stories hitting the media that the Mets and their would-be shortstop are still pretty far apart in their negotiations.  The Mets allegedly have gone as high as ten years and $325 million but Lindor and his agent are asking for 12 years and $385 million.  While the average annual salary is slightly lower in the player’s proposed deal, it does add two more years of financial obligation that the Mets may not be ready to swallow.  


If the Mets decide to take a hard line and abide by Lindor’s deadline of Opening Day for contract negotiation then they are putting themselves into a potentially giant black eye for the deal they made.  It would mean the four players they sacrificed netted them Carlos Carrasco and a compensation pick assuming they would extend the Qualifying Offer to Lindor before he waves goodbye.  That doesn’t seem like much for what was sent packing to Cleveland.  

As I’ve stated before, it’s not the first time the Mets were in this type of situation.  They faced it with pitcher Mike Hampton helping them get to the World Series then hightailing it to Denver for a mediocre career in the pitching hell of Coors Field.  After going 15-10 with a 3.14 ERA for the pennant bound Mets, the remainder of his career between Colorado, Atlanta and Houston was 63-62 with a 4.84 ERA.  The Mets gave up reliever Octavio Dotel, outfielder Roger Cedeno and minor leaguer Kyle Kessel for that one year of service.  Oh yeah, the Mets got Derek Bell, too.  

If indeed they fail to square things with Lindor, there are ample shortstop opportunities in the free agent pool of 2021/2022 beyond him.  Set to hit free agency as well are Javier Baez, Corey Seager and Trevor Story.  Carlos Correa is out there, too, but the Astros are making strong efforts to sign him (though the initial 6 year/$120 million deal was hardly worthy of a star with his talent).  Any of these players will hit the same salary range Lindor wants, so there’s no money to be saved.

Top prospect Ronny Mauricio is thought to be a potential major league star, but right now he’s just 19 years old and has several more seasons of development to go along with his newly muscular physique.  In fact, many were suggesting he would move off shortstop to third base to be more commensurate with the projected power hitting and because the assumption was the Mets would have shortstop filled by Lindor for many years to come.


So if the Mets do not secure Lindor, who is the shortstop of the future?  They could go defense-first with someone like Luis Guillorme to hold down the fort for Mauricio, but that’s quite a dropoff in both power and baserunning speed from Lindor.  They could make a trade for someone on another club or they could just dig deeper into their pockets for the available free agent options.  If they’re going to have to make that move, wouldn’t it be more sensible to keep the star shortstop who’s already here?

13 comments:

  1. Good article.

    I don't think the 2022 shortstop is currently on the Mets if Lindor was to bolt at the end of this season.

    I would expect our newly found Twitter King to go throw money at one of the other blue chip shortstops that would also become a free agent at the end of the season.

    We will QO Lindor and get ourselves a much needed top draft pick.

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  2. I agree with Mack, on the article and conclusion.

    If Lindor goes elsewhere, they will be 0-4 on JTR, Oblique Springer, Jack Bauer, and then Lindor.

    If that happens, I guarantee Cohen will real in a few big tunas next off season, unless he strikes gold at mid season. He may do both.

    He wants to build a foundation of stable success, so he doesn't implode like the Russian owner of the Nets did when he leapt to far, too fast. Next off season, he will be a Cobra.

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  3. I'm skeptical of the whole story. It is totally un-Sandy like to nehotiate in public by stating his "final offer", and it also not likely that Lindor or his agent would reveal their demand prematurely.

    Has anyone noticed that no source is given for these alleged comments by either side?

    From Lindor's side, he's either cutting his own throat, or getting very bad advice, IF THE STORY IS TRUE. He runs the risk of an injury or poor season killing his value, and he'll be competing with other All-Star FA SS's for jobs.

    No one will offer him more than the Cohen Mets, and if they do we can live with a Seager, Story, er al.

    We'll know in 24 hours what happens, but I'm not buying this story.

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  4. I agree with Bill. Lindor has fit in so well with the team in such a short period of time it's very impressive and I just can't see Cohen not closing the deal as this trade as it will define the Cohen ownership especially after losing out on Bauer.

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  5. Good morning folks. It’s ironic to read Bill’s and Gary’s comments as yesterday afternoon, on my way to run an errand, I found myself wondering how many teams can even make a run at one of these SS. Going division by division, I don’t see a team in the East that needs or has the room to sign one. In the Central, I’m not sure if the Brewers would, the Cardinals already have Goldschmidt and Arenado hogging up almost $70MM. The Cubs are crying pauper. In the West, the Dodgers are bringing up a kid, The Giants will definitely go after a SS, no one else in that division will. So in the NL, it’s Mets, Giants, maybe the Brewers. In the AL, you have the Yankees, maybe Toronto, maybe the White Sox, the Mariners for sure, the Rangers for sure, the Astros should rebuild, and maybe the Angels with Pujols coming off the books.

    So, to summarize, definitely: Mets, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Yankees, are sure things. Then, the maybes are Brewers, Toronto, White Sox, and Angels. That’s not alot of teams for five shortstops: Story, Seager, Lindor, Correa, Baez. Anyone see a hole here that I missed?

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  6. Lindor wants 2 more years. I did a quick analysis of recent 8yr+ deals and how they worked out. Five of them look very good but at least 2 of those good deals had heavy PED involvement. Longoria & Helton you could argue went ok.

    The rest of the deals had only a few good years and more than 50% of the contract was a disaster with injury or just poor performance or PED suspensions.

    Signing Lindor for 12yrs would likely mean we are eating 5 really bad years minimum and it could be much more than that. It would be a huge risk. Players simply do not age well past age 33 without PEDs with very few exceptions even among the super stars. This is why they really need to hold fast. Next year Lindor will be a year older with a QO attached and a lot of competition in FA. Unless he put together a Trout or Betts like MVP season (which he has never done) he simply isnt going to do better than 325 million of non-deferred money.

    GOOD!
    Votto 10yrs (@28) several elite yrs, last 3 look bad
    Scott Rolen 8yrs (@28) 5yrs of 4WAR+ productive player
    Manny Ramirez 8yrs (@29) 7 productive years but PEDs involved
    Jeter 10yrs (@27) very good first 9 yrs
    AROD 2 10yr deals: largely productive but PEDs involved

    Longoria 10yrs (@27) first 5yrs good & productive then bad
    Helton 11yrs (@29) last 6 years mediocre

    Pujols 10yrs (@32) 1yr of 4 WAR, the rest mediocre to bad
    Hampton 8yrs (@28) disaster for all 8 years
    Soriano 8yrs (@31) first yr productive, 7 bad years
    Wright 8yrs (@30) 1 good year then disaster
    Cabrera 8yrs (@33) 1 good year then disaster
    Kemp 8yrs (@27) 8 years of disaster
    Adrian Gonzalez 8yrs (@29) 3 productive years the rest disaster
    Teixeira 8yrs (@29) 2rs above 4WAR, 3 terrible years
    Mauer 8yrs (@28) 2 yrs above 4WAR, 4years below 2WAR
    Griffey 9yrs (@30) 1 good yr, 7rs below 2WAR
    Posey 9yrs (@26) 5 good yrs, this is a win
    Fielder 9yrs (@28) 1 good yr then complete disaster
    Andrus 10yrs (@24) 1 good yr rest less than 3WAR
    Braun 10yrs (@27) 3 good yrs, last 5 terrible, PEDs
    Tulowitzki 10yrs (@26) 3 elite yrs, last 5 of 6yrs terrible
    Stanton 13yrs (@25) 1 elite, 1 good, last 2yrs bad
    Cano 10yrs (@31) 5 good yrs, PED suspensions, last 5 look bad

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  7. Fully agree with the notion that there needs to be some reasonable limit on how outrageous Lindor's contract should be. It seems a bit ridiculous, but I have to accept the fact that a great baseball player is entitled to a $20M / year contract. I agree that a young star should (whether or not I like it) get $20M per year through age 35. But contracts that take a player beyond age 35 are ridiculous. I guess that my notion of a reasonable contract for Lindor is far less than he will eventually receive from someone however.
    That said, I do hope that somehow Lindor will remain a NYM. below what he will eventually. get from someone. Next year may be bad for him however because there will be so many outstanding free agent shortstops.

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  8. Wow, Dallas, that's quite a break down.

    Cohen is a risk taker - when he thinks it is a winning risk. Otherwise, he will wait until the next deal.

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  9. Marc, I so agree with these deals into late 30s.

    That said, take almost any player not named Mike Trout, and how much do they earn over their career?

    Not looking it up, what is Lindor's average annual salary before 2021 vs. his tremendous production? It is a stupid system - but I do not feel bad when a guy gets an astronomical sum, when he was underpaid for years.

    Pete Alonso (to date) has earned less than $1 million - tremendously underpaid vs. performance so far.

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  10. Anyone know the story of the campers and the bear? The punchline is "I don't have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you."

    Right now, the Mets are bidding against themselves. If no agreement is reached, in November they only have to outbid other teams.

    If the high bid for him from others is 10/$250 mil, the Mets can have high bid without topping $300 mil.

    And if someone bids $325 mil, we still don't have to come close to his current demand.

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  11. Wow, Bill. Profound? A bit gory? LOL

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  12. It would be a shame if Lindor doesn't sign and then leaves at year end.

    But I decided to glance at what Cleveland got. Amed had a good average but no RBIs. Gimenex hit .260, but under .200 after his first 2 spring games. Wolf and Greene DNP, surprising since Pete Crow got in 10 or 11 games. So I still think it was a very good trade. Lindor just might have a GREAT year.

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  13. For Seattle, Seald went 5.2 innings, Gerson Bautistaa 5.1,,,both pitched poorly, but Sewald fanned 12, while Gerson fanned none. Go figure.

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