Reese Kaplan -- Who Comes North? How Will the Mets Do?

As Spring Training draws to a close the final cuts which determine who will come north and who will not become increasingly more difficult and painful to do.  On Wednesday evening it was announced that Jordan Yamamoto who has pitched quite well throughout this preseason has been given a ticket to Syracuse. 

That one must have been a bit uncomfortable for Luis Rojas and company to reveal to Yamamoto who finished with Spring stats of 0-1, 1.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a .219 BAA.  He struck out five and walked one over his 8.1 innings in official games (plus the back field innings he logged as well).  If I’m Jordan Yamamoto I’m probably thinking “I wish I had a $6 million contract like Dellin Betances so I could carry a 9.00 ERA, too!”

Although it has not yet been announced, it would seem fairly clear right now that the opening day starting pitching rotation includes Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi.  A final couple of truly awful performances by the latter two or an injury to someone in this group before the prospect of other names would enter the conversation.

Now the bullpen is not nearly as clear in terms of choices as is the rotation.  Some are givens, like Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Aaron Loup.  Then there are the ones whose salaries and increasingly distant past history mandate they come north, Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia.  So far that’s five relievers.  After that the picture gets a bit muddier. 

Among the contenders are recent whiz kid Jacob Barnes, Miguel Castro, Drew Smith and Steven Tarpley.  Of this quartet, none of them look bad at all.  Then there are the non-roster guys like Mike Montgomery, the lefty journeyman who has 7 Ks and 1 BB in under 5 IP, and old friend Jerry Blevins who has a 3.86 ERA but a poor record keeping people off base.  Jerad Eickhoff has been pretty awful this Spring. 

Finally there is the lost soldier with a remaining option, Robert Gsellman.  His 4.50 ERA is probably about what you could expect of him during the season where he’s furnished a 4.67 ERA for his career.  That option suggests he will start the season in the minors because others don’t have that placement available.  If you go with Diaz, May, Loup, Betances, Familia, Barnes, Castro and Montgomery, that’s a total of eight relievers.  

For the position players, it’s pretty much set already.  You have the starters -- Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, J.D. Davis and James McCann on the infield.  Then you have Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto in the all-lefty swinging outfield.  On the bench you have at minimum Luis Guillorme, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora and a backup catcher (likely Tomas Nido who is out of options).  That roster would include 13 offensive players to go along with likely 13 pitchers to complete the 26-man roster.  

There are other ways to go, of course, but the Mets have some players who are planned to be a big part of the 2021 team opening the year on the IL -- Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo and Noah Syndergaard.  The first two may be back by June. 

Figure about another month after that for Syndergaard to make his major league debut for this season.  As those arms become a part of the roster, then some who do come north either get demoted or cut loose.  

So the big question is how will these folks do in competition for the postseason?  Well, the first issue is one that has been a deep challenge to the Mets for quite some time -- defense.  Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, Dom Smith and Brandon Nimmo have all been known to have issues on the field.  That’s half your starting lineup. 

When some of your pitchers like Marcus Stroman rely upon inducing ground outs, having a weak infield may not be the way to go.  

Next you have the issue of baserunning speed.  In the starting lineup you have Francisco Lindor who is a legitimate threat to pilfer north of 20 SBs, but that’s not the kidn of eye popping total like you would have received from a Mookie Wilson, Frank Taveras, Vince Coleman, Jose Reyes or Roger Cedeno. 

They do have a high powered threat in free agent acquisition, Jonathan Villar, but he’s not expected to start.  Consequently the idea of small ball baserunning is still a wistful dream.

For power and RBIs, I can finally say I am confident in who they are trotting out there.  You know what Alonso, Lindor, Smith, Nimmo and Conforto will deliver. 

J.D. Davis has shown his good side and his bad side, so he’s probably on the shortest leash, but even if he’s just a 20 HR guy, that total from all of these pieces (plus McNeil and McCann) should be more than sufficient to bring in a high number of runs.  

The starting pitching is going to be awesome if and when both Carrasco and Syndergaard return and pitch as they have in the past.  In the interim, the top trio of deGrom, Stroman and Walker are rock solid.  A few months of the less proven Peterson and Lucchesi should be acceptable.  

Now we get to the dangerous part -- the bullpen.  In the past we worried mostly about the closer, then the setup guys.  With Lugo down and out, that leaves closing duties once again to Edwin Diaz.  He has looked like the same stud reliever from 2020, so I feel we are fine there.  Where it’s way less clear is who is setting up for him in the 7th and 8th innings.  I’m guessing Trevor May could move into that kind of role until Lugo returns.  No one is expecting much of anything out of Familia and Betances. 

The others who will make up the rest of the bullpen don’t have enough track record to predict reliably how they will do.  Essentially to me it comes down to Diaz along with a lot of hopes and prayers.

So in the long run how will this team do?  It really depends more on the starting pitching and bullpen than it does on the offensive side.  They will suffer through defense and lack of speed as they have in the past, but they have a huge leap forward in ability in Lindor and regular ABs scheduled for both Davis and Smith. 

These three day-in, day-out additions to the lineup should make up for whatever goes wrong defensively.  If the pitching is top rate, then there’s no reason the club shouldn’t be contending for the upper half of the division.  If Carrasco, Syndergaard and Lugo return and pitch to form, then there’s no reason they can’t fight the Braves for the top of the division.