Luis Guillorme, wearing a Gold Glove
What most of us do is develop a plan, and then as results, facts, and circumstances unfold, we adjust the plan.
So this is just the plan I'd use as I start the season, if I wiz the man in charge.
Luis Guillorme this spring has had his highly memorable - and significant - 22 pitch battle (which he won) against a guy throwing 100 MPH. And a video clip the other day showed him make a truly nifty snatch of a hard shot at 3B, which he quickly and smoothly turned into a double play. I think it is safe to say he is a superior fielder. He also made a truly fine pick in the hole at SS the other day. He sells vacuums on the side...they suck everything up.
JD Davis is not his peer in the field, to be charitable, but carries a bigger power bat.
So what sort of sharing arrangement might one plan for?
Well, Luis is a lefty bat, and JD is a righty bat. A strict platoon could work - but I wouldn't do that.
But here are facts to consider, keeping in mind that Guillorme's MLB total career plate appearances are still low and therefore hard to project.
Baseball Reference projects his 2021 thusly:
299 PA, .256/.339/.401. That is pretty solid, and then you overlay that golden glove work and you have a truly valuable player. At least I think so.
JD Davis? Baseball Reference has his 2021 projection at 554 PAs, and .263/.348/.437, but just 60 RBIs. Better than Luis' projected offensive numbers, but not by a whole lot.
So let's look at a few splits to drill down.
Luis has hit MUCH better slash so far in his career against righties: .268/.360/.362, vs. a sub-par .222/.263/.250 vs. lefties.
To me, that sub-par-ness means he does not start against lefties.
JD? Hits both lefties and righties reasonably well, but lefties a somewhat better - EXCEPT in RBIs, where he has inexplicably knocked in just 25 in 306 PAs against lefties in his career, an oddly low number.
Looking at just one more stat, Luis has hit well with runners in scoring position, but is just 2 for 19 with 2 outs and RISP.
JD? In 190 ABs in his career with RISP, he is hitting a quite sub-par .200. With 2 outs and RISP, he is just at .210.
What does all of the above tell me, if I’m doing the line up cards? Split them 50-50 at third base. See how it goes. If one starts to excel and the other not as much, adjust the plan.
And have JD Davis start all games against lefties, and Luis by default start no games against lefties.
Let's add one more guy into the discussion.
Jonathan Villar? He is good - and fast - but a weak glove. Especially weak at 3B. So I would only start him in games at 3B if JD got hurt. I see his role as back-up 2B, back-up SS, and pinch hitter and runner. And, of course, increased use if there are infield injuries.
Villar does steal a base every 15 times up in his career, far beyond what Luis and JD do, and in his longer career, he is .259/.327/.400, and a nearly identical .261/.336/.401 with RISP, including a decent .237/.319.364 with 2 outs and RISP.
He hits lefties and righties pretty equally well, a good thing.
Of course, past performance is not necessarily a harbinger of future performance. Through March 18, this spring, he was just 3 for 25 with 11 Ks. That has to change - and fast. But at a guaranteed $3.5 million, he ain't going nowhere fast.
So how would you use this trio if you was callin’ de shots?
I would likely start Davis and let him prove he deserves or he doesn't. Then I would look to have Villar as Plan B given his superior bat to Guillorme. As much as I hate to admit it, no power and no speed leaves Guillorme at third choice.
ReplyDeleteReese, I can understand your perspective here. I based the split on Luis' Baseball Reference slash, which indicates some power: 99 PA, .256/.339/.401.
ReplyDeleteAnd the likelihood, if that is a reasonable 2021 slash for him, he will hit even better than that slash against righties. Add in the glove, and starting him against a bunch of righties would make sense.
That said, if I were Rojas, I would commit to nothing, and adjust playing time as players earn that time. I just have a feeling that 299 PAs in the BR slash projection might be a good number.
Think of Nolan Arenado - I have a feeling his defense and offense outside Colorado will be perhaps only marginally better than what Guillorme can produce against righties. Time will tell if that is way wrong.
Arenado had a .227/.302/.333 slash on the road in 2020; significantly better in 2019, but not mile-high-inflated.
I am happy to see JD get the bulk of the early work. Guillorme over there does not bother me and, yes, matches up with Stroman.
ReplyDeleteVillar is not "good." He is terrible. Five teams have dumped him over the past four years. There are reasons for that, despite the obvious "talent." A very bad signing and in no way, shape, or form an answer at 3B.
Cabrera would have been interesting. Gonzales, as I've mentioned before. Almost anyone who can actually play the position might have been useful.
That we are in a position where we are stuck with Villar because of the contract, and stuck with the idea that maybe he can learn 3B on the fly this season, is just poor planning. Worse than poor, actually. There's no excuse for it, no reason.
Back to JD and Luis: I think Mets can roll with this combo, be fluid, so how things play out. No one needs to decide now. In baseball, the players decide. Let's see what they tell us.
Just don't waste one minute with Villar over there. It will disgust me.
Jimmy
I have a strong feeling that this will be a breakout year for Luis, but it will take a really bad showing by JDD for him to get opps.
ReplyDeleteHere's the tricky part--- When Stro is pitching, Luis' glove takes on added importance. But if the opposing SP is lefty, Luis' #s say he shouldn't play.
Other than praying that LHPs don't oppose Stro, what should Luid R do about Luis G? Hmmmmmmmm...
Bill, Luis is gonna have to figure that out. Frankly, given his far superior glove, Luis against righties might be better than JD against righties.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing to consider is second base. Is McNeil going to be good on a long term basis? Should they use Guillorme at second when Stro pitches?
ReplyDeleteOther than that, your plan is good. I am hoping for 400 PA by Luis.
i know McNeil got HBP again today, so I hope you are not inferring he was injured; his bat has to emerge otherwise. He has torn it up in 2018, 19 and 20. No way he stops hitting - he just needs to get untracked.
ReplyDeleteMy worry about 2B is that Sandy gave Villar $3.5 million and that's basically the only real position he plays (albeit poorly).
ReplyDeleteNot worried about Jeff. He's getting closer. Guy is a hitter.
JD made a sweet play today at 3B -- and hit the ball over the wall. If he can hit the way he's capable of hitting, and if the defense is okay enough, he will earn most of the innings at 3B.
JD would be, of course, a hell of a dangerous bat off the bench. I don't think he has to start every game unless he just plays out of him mind. I feel good about 3B.
Jimmy
My concern is not McNeil's bat - it is his glove. I am actually a lot more positive about Davis at third than I am McNeil at second.
ReplyDeleteI remember Lindor's comment - I like to make sure the double play is turned. I am afraid they are stuffing McNeil there to get his bat in the lineup and it won't be pretty.
All that said, I am not quite as bullish on his hitting as others are either; my feel is that he was a great off-season trade chip while still on top and trading high.