Aidan Cooke - Get to Know Mets' Opening Day Opponent Matt Moore

     

I'm sure that many of you were just as excited as I was to see Jacob deGrom duel Max Scherzer on Opening Day in D.C. Unfortunately, the teams are unable to play their opening series after a Covid-19 breakout in the Nationals' clubhouse. Instead, the Mets will begin their season on Monday, facing the Phillies for three games at Citizens Bank Park. While the Mets are seemingly sticking with deGrom to start game one of the series, the Phillies, coming off of three games against the Braves, will be turning to Matt Moore take the ball. 

   Moore is someone that many Mets fans may not recognize. He has been a bit of a journeyman over his career, pitching for the Rays, Giants, Rangers, Tigers, and now the Phillies. Moore came up for a cup of coffee in 2011, but his first full season came in 2012, where he pitched to a 3.81 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 4.35 xFIP, and 2.4 WAR across 177.1 innings. He was part of a talented and fully-homegrown Rays staff that helped the team to a 90-72 record (and a 95-67 Pythagorean record). 

    On the surface, it seems like Moore built on his 2012 and had a better year in 2013. His ERA dropped from 3.81 to 3.29, his record improved to 17-4, and he finished 9th in AL Cy Young voting. Despite this, Moore's FIP actually went up, likely due to a decrease in strikeouts and an increase in walks. His xFIP only improved marginally, dropping to 4.32. 

    His four-seam fastball velocity, which had averaged 96.4 MPH and 95.3 MPH in 2011 and 2012 respectively, dipped down to 93.3 MPH. Since then, it has never averaged over 94 MPH for a season. Southpaws don't normally throw as hard as right-handed pitchers, but this decrease in velocity is still notable for Moore. Around this time, about half of his pitches were four-seamers.

    Moore's dip in velocity is likely due to his injury history. Starting in 2013, Moore missed about a month of the season due to elbow discomfort but returned in time for the postseason. The following year, Moore was pulled from his second start after his elbow discomfort resurfaced. This time was much more serious, as Moore went under the knife for Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season after pitching only 10 innings. Even though he underwent the operation so early into the season, it caused him to miss significant time in 2016 as well, where he only managed 63 innings and had a 5.43 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 4.81 xFIP. 

    Moore improved in 2016, posting a 4.08 ERA across 198.1 frames between the Rays and Giants. Moore's fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, the highest it had been since 2013, his last fully healthy year. He also had the lowest walk rate of his career and his best strikeout rate since 2013. He looked like he was back to the starter he had been in 2012 and 2013. His 4.08 ERA, 4.17 FIP,  4.56 xFIP, and 3.96 xERA were all in line with his 2012-13 performance when he had been outperforming his peripherals.

    However, Moore has struggled since then, allowing 184 runs in 286.1 innings for an unsightly 5.78 ERA. What caused him to struggle so badly? Some may say it was his no-hit bid against the Dodgers late in 2016, where Moore threw 133 pitches but lost his no-no with two outs in the 9th on a bloop single and was immediately taken out. After that start, he allowed 18 earned runs in just 28.2 innings (5.65 ERA) to finish out the year. 

    I think that Moore's struggles came because he abandoned his sinker. Matt never really leaned on his sinker, instead turning towards his four-seamer. Moore's fastball has lost rise over the years, which is important for someone who has located his fastball mostly up in the zone. His sinker would be able to keep hitters off his four-seamer with its vertical drop, but Moore scrapped it ahead of the 2017 season. It was seen as a vulnerable pitch in the wake of the launch angle revolution. As Moore's vertical movement dropped on his fastball, there was no more sinker to counteract it, and hitters had a .424 and .449 xwOBA against it in 2017 and 2018, respectively, after a .339 mark in 2016.

     He also made up for the lack of sinkers by incorporating his cutter more. It had been a very effective pitch when located on the corners of the plate, but as Moore increased his usage he also became more aggressive with the pitch, throwing it mostly down the pipe. As a result, the wOBA against jumped from .267 to .353 and the xwOBA rose from .243 to .364.

    It is worth noting that Moore pitched well in 2019 with the Tigers, albeit in only 10 innings. He allowed no runs but ended his season after undergoing meniscus surgery on his right knee.

    But can Moore bounce back in 2021? There are several encouraging signs for him. He improved his cutter's location drastically in 2018 and 2019, reverting it back to the corners and seeing much improved results. In 2019, his average fastball velocity was up to 93.5, the highest it had been since his resurgent 2016. 

    He spent his 2020 season in Japan, and while advanced metrics aren't publicly available for overseas gameplay, Moore's results certainly inspire confidence. He went 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA over 85 innings. His walk rates and strikeouts were both well above his career norms, partly due to the decrease in competition in Japan but also an encouraging sign for Moore. Players such as Miles Mikolas and Colby Lewis have gone from MLB to Japan and back to MLB to revitalize their careers successfully before, but the path is not well worn. Playing in Japan boosts an MLB pitcher's confidence and mental state, not only from the improved results but also the improved treatment. 

    Matt Moore will be asked to take on a much smaller role than he had earlier in his career, acting more as an innings-eater than a true 2 or 3 starter. He still profiles as a wild card for the Phillies, but could have some left in the tank to be a solid contributor for a team looking to break into the playoffs.