Aidan Cooke - New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Series Preview

     

Coming off of a rejuvenating series against the Phillies, the Mets will look to take their momentum to the Coors Field against the Rockies. The Mets are currently atop the NL East with a 5-3 record; nobody else is above .500 at the moment. The Rockies, meanwhile, have struggled. They have a 3-10 record, which is not only the worst in their division but also the worst in baseball. Their sluggish start shouldn't surprise many considering they shipped off their franchise player, Nolan Arenado, and have already played the juggernaut Dodgers 7 times.

    The Rockies prevailed over Clayton Kershaw's Dodgers on Opening Day but dropped the next two to lose the series. They then won 2 of 3 at home against the Diamondbacks, another team that has gotten off to a slow start. After that series, the Rockies were swept by the Giants and Dodgers and are currently riding a 6-game losing streak.

    The Mets, on the other hand, have captured three straight victories against the division-rival Phillies and will look to carry this momentum to Colorado, where they will play their first game out of the EST time zone since September 22, 2019, in Cincinnati. There is concern about the climate in Colorado, though. The Mets landed in Denver in the midst of a snowstorm, with Marcus Stroman comparing it to the weather in Toronto. 3-6 inches of snow could be possible leading up to Friday's game, with a game time temperature hovering in the 30s. 

    Rockies hitters shouldn't have to worry about Friday's frigid weather, though, because Jacob deGrom will surely deliver the heat. It's been business as usual for Jake so far into the year, as he's tossed 14 innings of 1 run ball, allowing 8 hits and 2 walks while punching out 21. In his most recent start, deGrom tied a career-high with 14 strikeouts across 8 innings. Speaking of his heat, deGrom has averaged 99.1 MPH on his four-seamer so far this season. His slider and changeup are both sitting at 91.2 MPH. deGrom's been going primarily with his fastball to start the year, upping its usage from 44.9% last year to 73.8% this year. 

    Joey Lucchesi will take the bump in the second game, making his first regular-season start with the Mets. Lucchesi had an impressive spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and striking out 15 batters in 13 innings. He appeared in one game in Philadelphia, tossing 2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen, allowing one hit and notching 3 Ks. The two pitches he threw, a sinker and "churveball", were 1.9 MPH and 1.3 MPH faster than their averages last season. Their spin rates jumped up, too. Another notable part of his performance was what he didn't throw. Luchessi did not use his cutter at all, a pitch that had been hit hard in 2019 and 2020.

    Lucchesi's career 16% HR/FB ratio may give him some trouble in Coors, but don't expect him to go deep into the game anyway. He averaged about 5 innings per start from 2018-19 and only got 5.2 innings of work last season. The bullpen should be well-rested after a rainout on Thursday and a deGrom start on Friday, meaning he likely won't even need to go into the 6th. 

    Stroman will look to close out the series on a high note. Stroman has succeeded so far in the young season, allowing just 1 run in 12.1 innings. Stroman's stuff should play well in Coors Field, a ballpark known to help balls carry farther in the air because of the thin air. Marcus happens to be a groundball pitcher, though. His most often used pitch is his sinker, which has had a negative average launch angle every year of Stroman's career. 

    The Rockies will have Chi Chi Gonzalez pitching the opening game of the series. Gonzalez came up with the Rangers in 2015 but has never been able to find success, owning a career 5.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He has only thrown 170 innings, allowing 160 hits, 21 homers, and 95 earned runs. He has struck out only 104 batters while walking 90, an alarmingly high number. The Mets come into the series with the 4th-best walk rate in the game, so this could be a poor matchup for Gonzalez. So far this year, Chi Chi has had a 3.60 ERA in 10 frames, but his underlying metrics have remained the same as they've been throughout his career. In short, Gonzalez could be just what the doctor ordered for a Mets offense that has underperformed this season.

    Germán Márquez has arguably the highest potential of anyone on the Rockies' starting staff. Only 26 years old, Márquez made his name known with a nice season in 2018. He had a 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.1 WAR, and 10.6 K/9. His underlying metrics piqued the interests of many in the baseball world, especially his strikeout and groundball rates. Márquez has not been able to build off of his 2018 yet, as his ERA and peripherals have gone up while his strikeouts, walks, and home run rates have all worsened. He's still a young, solid pitcher capable of pitching a great game, but the Mets could still put up some runs against him, especially since they'll be playing at Coors Field, where Márquez has had a career 5.05 ERA.

    Antonio Senzatela will likely start game three. Last season, he put up a career-best 3.44 ERA, but it was backed by troubling metrics, such as a 4.64 xERA and 4.81 xFIP that are much more in line with his career numbers. He has done little to disprove that season as a fluke, pitching to a 1-2 record and a 7.07 ERA in 3 starts this season, but two of them came against the Dodgers, an offensive powerhouse. Senzatela's other start was against the much less feared Arizona Diamondbacks, whom he dominated in 8 scoreless innings. Senzatela doesn't get many strikeouts, but he does do a good job of preventing barreled balls. Senzatela also gets a good ground ball rate of around 50%, which is important for a pitcher at Coors. Based on his career stats, the Mets are more likely to see the version of Senzatela that was lit up by LA rather than the one that dominated the DBacks.

    The pitching matchups mostly favor the Mets, with Lucchesi vs Márquez being the only one up for debate. The Mets still look like the favorite in that game because of the lineups. The Rockies' offense looks much weaker without Nolan Arenado. The one name to watch out for would be Trevor Story, who rivals Francisco Lindor among the best shortstops in baseball. From 2018-20, Story slashed .292/.355/.554 with a 123 wRC+ and fantastic defense to accumulate 13.4 fWAR and earn two All-Star selections (there was no ASG in 2020), two Silver Slugger awards, and three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. At the moment, the hottest hitter for Colorado is Ryan McMahon, who had a .289 average and .993 OPS but only a .304 OBP entering his matchup against the Dodgers on Thursday. He went 2-4 with 2 runs scored and an RBI. Overall, though,  the Rockies lineup has struggled. They are 22nd in batting average, 28th in OBP, 26th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. 

    The Mets came into this season with playoff expectations, and if they want to reach the postseason they'll need to beat up on teams like the Rockies. While Colorado has shown some grit so far, they are still the underdogs in almost every game, including all 3 against the Mets. Ultimately, I expect the Mets to mash at Coors Field just as they have done in the past, while their pitching can shut down a weak offense. The main obstacle preventing the Mets from doing this might just be the adverse weather.