More Weekly Draft Notes

 

4-6-21 - BA - doing bad this season -

 

Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

 

It’s hard to have a more poorly timed slump than the one the Florida center fielder is enduring right now.

 

Fabian is 1-for-24 over his past six games. He does have four walks over that stretch but he also has 17 strikeouts.

 

We looked at every pitch of the last six games for Fabian. And what’s clear is that while he pulls off of sliders away, it’s fastballs that are beating him right now.

 

Of those 17 strikeouts in the past six games, strike three came on a fastball 13 times—11 times he swung through it while twice he took a fastball for strike three. Only four of the whiffs came on breaking balls. His lone hit of the past two weeks was a home run off a Drew McDaniel slider.

 

Mack’s spin -

 

Though his projected talent will warrants him being picked as the first outfielder in this draft, I now project him as the fourth.

 

 

 

4-6-21 - BA - doing bad this season -

 

Alex Binelas, 1B/3B, Louisville

 

Over the first eight games of the season before conference play began, Binelas was hitting .065/.189/.097 (2-for-31). Binelas was striking out a little more than would be ideal (24.3%), but it was more a case of him rarely doing anything with pitches when he did connect.

 

Binelas played in just two games in the abbreviated 2020 season because of a hand injury, so the slow start follows a year where he didn’t get to show what he could do.

 

SInce then, he’s shown signs that it was a slow start more than a lasting problem. Over the last three weeks, Binelas is hitting .353/.429/.735 and since conference play began in early March, he’s hitting .279/.373/.574. There’s enough time for him to put a brutal start behind him. But he’s going to have to have a furious finish to meet the statistical standards of what is expected from a first-round college bat.

 

Roughly halfway through the season, Binelas is hitting .212/.317/.424 overall in 99 at-bats over 26 games. There are 24 games left on the regular season schedule, plus the postseason. If he hits .350 (35-for-100) over the rest of the season, he’d still be hitting only .281 overall, which would rank among the lowest batting averages of a first-round pick in the past decade.

 

Mack’s spin -

Because the third base portion of this draft is weak, I still have Alex coming off the board as the first third baseman.

But I currently have him only as a late first round pick.

 

 

 

4-5-21 - Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo

 

Torn UCL for Jaden Hill. Really sucks to see this. Hope he makes a swift recovery

 

Mack’s spin -

 

Pitching arms are like auto parts. And they breakdown similarly.

 

This is probably the last ink we write on Hill this mock season. My guess is he will go back to school now for his senior year.

 

 

4-5-21 - Tyler Jennings @TylerJennings24

 

Sal Frelick (BC) - One of the best college bats in this class. Might have a small frame, but packs a punch. Plenty of bat speed in his swing and utilizes all fields with some pop. Quick athlete, 4.05 H-1st. Good defense in CF, too. Top ten talent

 

Mack’s spin -

 

More love for the locked in first rounder.

 

 

4-5-21 - ACC Baseball @ACCBaseball

 

Adrian Del Castillo batted .471 with 3 doubles, 7 RBI and 6 runs scored to lead @CanesBaseball to a 4-0 week!

 

Mack’s spin -

 

Del Castillo is locked into a battle with Henry Davis to become the first catcher drafted in this draft.

 

So far, Davis is still winning that race.

 

 

4-4-21 - Prospect Live - Week 7 -

 

MICHAEL MCGREEVY, RHP, UC SANTA BARBARA

 

9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K

 

Frankly, we’re a little surprised it took this long for an arm out of Santa Barbara to make the top cut in Stock Watch. Head Coach Andrew Checketts does a great job with his staff and the Gauchos seemingly always produce good arms. The 6-foot-4-inch McGreevy did whatever he wanted against Hawaii. He’s in the conversation as one of the top 100 talents in this draft class.

 

McGreevy has all the qualities of a future big league starter. At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, McGreevy has the frame and athleticism necessary to succeed across extensive innings. He’s armed with a really heavy fastball in the 93-96 range, touching 97 with plenty of arm-side run. He’s got a true out-pitch in a hard curveball with impressive depth. McGreevy also utilizes a slider and changeup, both of which are average more often that not.

 

McGreevy has a career ERA of just 2.04 including his 3.03 figure so far this season. On the year, he’s posted 35.1 innings, punching out 41 batters and issuing an impressive 5 walks. Strikeouts are up a bit this year and walks are way down; a good sign for McGreevy’s prospects as a draft-talent and potential top five round pick.

 

Mack’s spin -

 

I think they have this guy targeted correctly as a Top Five round pick, but I have him being picked near the end of that projection.

 

 

 

 

4-4-21 - PG College Baseball @PGCollegeBall

 

Henry Davis extends his hit streak and gets @LouisvilleBSB on the board with this scorched single up the middle. Another 100+ EV on the weekend as he’s crushing almost everything put in play.

 

Vinnie Cervino  @vcervinoPG

 

Davis added one more scorched RBI for good measure before the game ended. Out of all the balls in play he hit this weekend only 2(!!) were under a 100EV

 

Mack’s spin -

 

Right now, Davis is a Top 5 pick in the draft.

 

 

 

4-3-21 - Joe Doyle  @JoeDoyleMiLB

 

Louisville, Kentucky OF Daylen Lile is off to an awfully hot start this spring. Power tool seems a tick louder than last summer. Already a few dingers in his first week. 55+ runner. True CF. For my money, maybe the quietest, most pure prep hit tool in the class.

 

Mack’s spin -

 

We have written a lot about Lile lately and it is all good.

 

One caution… saying the power tool is a tick louder doesn’t mean it has enough tick yet.

 

To me, a second or third round pick.

 

 

 

 

4-3-21 - Penn Live -

 

Benny Montgomery, Red Land

 

Position: CF

 

Class: Senior

 

Buzz: The term “five-tool player” gets used often when describing players, but it is absolutely the case with Benny Montgomery. The Red Land star outfielder won the Perfect Game All-American Home Run Derby with his power and has flashed some of the fastest 60-yard times of any player in the country. That speed helps make him an elite defender, as does his powerful arm from center field. 

Add in the discerning eye at the plate and quick-twitch bat, and he’ll be making consistent contact and should be among the league leaders in batting average. Montgomery, a UVA commit, is viewed by many as a future first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and will be absolute must-watch baseball any time he’s up at the plate.

 

Mack’s spin -

 

Someone will get a really good power prospect here that has all the tools needs to be successful at a higher level.

 

I would scoop him up in the second round, but he will probably be gone by then.

 

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