Last night I was chatting with my sometimes boisterous group of very opinionated Mets fans and the topics were all across the board about current events as they related to the 2021 team, the injuries they’re facing already, the umpiring in the games that gifted a victory to the Mets, and so forth.
During the discourse there started to be an extended debate about the negotiations that should be taking place to secure Michael Conforto to be a Met-for-life much like they did with Jacob deGrom and now with newcomer and ex-Indian Francisco Lindor.
We went around the video array to ask one-by-one how much they should pay for Conforto and for how many years. The numbers were all across the spectrum and the topic of his actual worth brought some fairly emotional responses. After all, he has progressed in his output from year to year when health was not a problem. During the last short season his batting average caught up with the power output. So why not pay him whatever his agent Scott Boras demands?
Without going too deep into the Conforto cash-in contract, it brought to mind what to me is a much bigger question. With the not-as-committed Wilpons in charge of the team, Mets fans were accustomed to staying away from the best of the best in terms of free agents and trade targets. It was crystal clear from the beginning that the Mets were simply not going to get into the buy-a-pennant machinations used by many other teams.
Most recently we’ve all seen the Philadelphia Phillies making tremendous strides in that familiar direction with the additions of Byrce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura. For those efforts the Phillies have finished 80-82, 81-81 and then in the abbreviated 2020 going 28-32. Simply spending money to win isn’t necessarily a good thing. The team also booted Gabe Kapler to the curb and replaced him with Joe Girardi who didnt fare any better.
No, the model most folks want to emulate are the Steinbrenner Yankees who saw fit to buy whomever they wanted at whatever the price demanded turned out to be. They paid a lot of money for many players who didn’t perform nearly as well as they were paid, but truth be told they finished in the postseason nearly every year.
We can recite a laundry list of bad Yankee deals, including A.J. Burnett, Jose Contreras, Jacoby Ellsbury, former Met Pedro Feliciano, Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, Steve Karsay, Carl Pavano, Kenny Rogers and Kevin Youkilis. Then you have oft-injured folks like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and others.
So the question to Mets fans is do you want to get back to the Steinbrenner way of doing things, signing Conforto, for example, for $250 million when his numbers with the bat are more similar to much-maligned Kevin McReynolds simply because you’re ensuring he will be there for a very long time?
Do you go after the best of the best next off-season in the hopes of filling holes in the roster? Do you make a preemptive offer to Noah Syndergaard before he proves he is capable of being what he once was? Do you now extend Jacob deGrom further as a way of showing appreciation after the headline grabbing Lindor deal?
Or, as Mets fans, would you prefer to see home grown players who help you win for a long, long time at relatively little cost? Think how well appreciated Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith and Pete Alonso are for the Mets right now while not earning in the highest echelon in the game.
Perhaps the right answer is a combination of the two extremes, but the topic brought short yet fiery debate. How do you all feel?
The Dodgers -- not the Yankees -- are the new model and the one the Mets seem intent to follow.
ReplyDeleteI say yes.
Jimmy
The Mets have to have a long term spending plan as to exactly how high they will go with budgets. Can they extend every player, and end up with $400 million salary for the team? Would that be wise?
ReplyDeleteIf I had to extend one of two players, Conforto or Nimmo, I'd extend Nimmo - Nimmo is a real hassle for other teams and is a real ingredient that helps the Mets avoid team batting slumps - he is a .400 + OBP guy.
Conforto is not great in high leverage hitting situations, and is the type of hitter that can add fuel to team hot hitting streaks but exacerbate the hitting slumps.
I'd love to keep Mike, but will it be for a reasonable amount? If it is something like Springer's contract, because Mike is younger, I'd say maybe. But I doubt that will be the highest bid. Steve Cohen's call, it's his checkbook.
Of course, with Conforto, his alternate destination would have to be considered. Does he end up in Philly, Atlanta, Washington, or the Bronx? That would only be OK if they sign an alternate talent they like better.
Of course, if Mauricio gets switched to the outfield and his bat explodes this year in the minors, maybe he replaces Conforto. Pete Crow is coming too. If he can hit .225 in 2023, with his speed and defense, he might well be considered ready enough.
Moving on, extend Jake? If reasonable enough, love to keep him. Thor? Ditto. Would Stroman be a better guy to extend? Do you extend everyone?
A lot depends on 2 things: 1) Who else is out there. 2) The Mets need to spend enough to be a favorite in the division every single year.
With Jake, you have to do right by him. There's no decision to make. And I believe he'd want it to work, so no worries there. Talent costs money.
ReplyDeleteThey need to keep either Stro or Thor, IMO. At the same time, maybe they don't if the length of contract gets crazy. Jake, Carrasco, Walker, Peterson/Lucchesi. Maybe you just find another guy without spitting out the crazy contract?
Walker's 2/$20 contract looks pretty darn good.
And, yes, amusing to see the Bauer "suspicious baseballs" story unfolding. I think it's a warning to ALL pitchers in MLB. They have new high-tech scanners now to examine baseballs. For some reason, MLB is cracking down.
Jimmy
I'd move McNeil to right and spend on pitching and by the way what happens with Cano? It would surprise me if he comes back because all his credibility is gone and I don't know how he could show his face in the clubhouse again.
ReplyDeleteAnother question for you guys: how about using an opener for Jake like say Lucchesi to pitch 2 or 3 innings then bring in DeGrom to finish it (and save probably 4 guys from the pen as well). It reminds me of another Seinfeld...if everything you've done is wrong (and for poor Jake it seems so) the opposite must be right. Hey isn't it worth a try?
ReplyDeleteSo do we spend like the Yankees? Yes? but to me that mean when you have to have a certain player you get him...
ReplyDeletelatest example is G. Cole.
Lindor to me was not this example. We didnt have to have this player because we had SS depth. would getting A nolan at the price that the cardinals are paying be wiser? I believe so.
Springer or JT and Nolan for the same amount as Lindor seems like better spending to me...
Correa was offer 120 for 6 year (which he turned down) but would 240 million for him be wiser than Lindor 341 million? I do not know but 100 million cheaper to spend on other things seem good to me...
So yes spend like george did but I dont know if i trust Sandy to do it...
I have been pitching what Tom said about Nimmo. Extend him over Conforto. Confortos best year is 3.7 WAR....ok so he had a really great 54 games last year and so we are suppose to pay him like an elite player with no season even over 4WAR???
ReplyDeleteNimmo is around the same age and being 2 years out you have more leverage and he is likely to command significantly less to lock up so you could get so much more value. Nimmo actually has a 5WAR season and frankly would you bet against him to outproduce Conforto this year? I bet not. I just can't validate paying Conforto 25m a year because the OF FA market next year looks slim. I just don't think its the best long term solution. 250m for Conforto? That just sounds completely reckless. If you could get him for around what Springer got I would be ok with it but that seems unlikely.
Now is also the time you look at locking up Alonso/Smith/McNeil before they all hit arbitration.
Dallas, free agency is a challenge for a lot of teams, and a real problem emerging for the Mets. I too would give Conforto 6 yr/$150 but we’ll just see how he goes this season.
ReplyDelete