The new 2021 season begins, we've weaved and dodged around that THING that made last year just a 60 game season,
This year, variant or no variant, we are playing 162 games. Francisco Lindor booked for a limited 10 year engagement of “Shortstop Superstar” at Citifield, the new best show in town.
So it's time for all you Mets' experts (Mets-Perts, if you will) to chime in and, if you wish, even pontificate as to what the Mets' 2021 season record will be and why.
Me?
I go with (drumroll, please) 94-68. Division winner.
Would be higher if the Mets were not in a tough division.
And I feel I am being conservative.
Like in 1986, when I told my Mets fan boss I thought the Mets would win 105. He scoffed, and said, "no team wins 105."
He was right. They won 108. I was too conservative.
Why 94 wins?
One NL exec recently looked a the Mets' line up and said, "Holy Crap."
I agree. The Mets will need a Toilet Paper Night at Citifield.
Not a ton of scoring so far this spring, I know, I know, but once the bell rings, this team is gonna score - and score big.
The combined offense of Nimmo, Lindor, Smith, Pete, Jeff, Conforto, JDD, McCann, Pillar, Guillorme and Almora will be hard on opposing pitchers - very hard. Two major hitting upgrades - Lindor and McCann.
Defense? Still not great, but I think those fielders who needed to improve over their 2020 foibles in the field have taken Defense 2021 as a personal challenge - and again, two major upgrades - Lindor, McCann.
Starters? I like the 5-man combo of Jake, Stro, Walker, Peterson, and Lucchesi quite a bit. I will like the rotation quite a bit more when 45-60 games out, we get back a top tier starter like Carrasco and our very own god of thunder, Syndergaard.
Pen? I think Edwin will be sharp and Miguel will make a clear step forward. Other pen arms like May and Loup will be solid. Familia will be OK, as will Betances, and Lugo will be back soon enough. And some real pen depth for a change.
Once Thor and Cookie return to the starting rotation, two of the initial rotation arms will slide back to fortify the pen. Overall, I think this pen will be somewhat above average.
Tough division, or I'd pick this team to win 99.
I think we win the division by a game over the Braves, 4 games ahead of the Nats, 7 games ahead of the Marlins, and 10 games ahead of Zack Wheeler's Philadelphia Phillies (sorry, Bryce, we know who stirs the drink down there).
Then the Mets will take it right on into the World Series.
May it again be an all NY series.
May the Mets, however, emerge victorious this time.
Will they use digital ticker tape in November 2021?
Anyway....That's my call, and I'm sticking to it.
What's your call, and why?
Morning Tom.
ReplyDeleteI think I will stick to the high 80s for wins and 2nd place with a wild card.
I just don't think the major injuries have come to a halt.
I'm with you but to me the BIGGEST difference is Stevie will do whatever is nessesary going forward to help this club win and what a refreshing change from the Wil-phonies.
ReplyDeleteAlso adding Thor Lugo and CC around May/June is HUGE
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteThanks for doing this.
I am sorry but I can't give the division to the Mets.
This is going to be a very tough division.
First, the Braves are really good and will better than last year when they came very close to of the WS. Pache is the real deal and gives them a Gold Glove CF who can hit.
The Mets don't have anything like that and we are going to see a lot of balls drop in front of Dom Smith and Brandon Nimmo as they play "No Doubles" all year long.
Don't get me wrong, the Mets will be an exciting contending team this year that will play meaningful games in September but the lack of outfield D will be the difference between Winner and also-ran.
The Phillies and the Nationals both have question marks. Question marks usually have about a 50/50 chance of coming true. My guess is that one comes out to the good while the other to the bad. One of these will finish second, the other fourth.
My division pick Braves 1st, Phillies or Nationals 2nd. Mets 3rd, Phillies or Nationals 4th, Marlins 5th - but don't discount these guys.
Rest of the NL - Cardinals in the Central, Dodgers in the West. Padres and Phillies or Nationals as the Wild Cards.
AL - Yankees, White Sox, A's (love their outfield defense though others are down on them), Rays and Angels as the Wild Cards.
Gents, I remain the optimist...that said, it annoys me to be in such a tough division. Yanks favored because of weak division.
ReplyDelete88 wins, WC.
ReplyDeleteJimmy
Tom, Mets were in a very weak division for just about the entirety of Sandy's 7-year tenure. For a lot of that, Marlins and Braves and Phils were punting.
ReplyDeleteJimmy
90 and 72. Wild card ride to the WS and a WS championship!
ReplyDeleteIra - hello, and thank for your opinion.
ReplyDeleteI am sure hoping they can squeeze past the Wild Card and win the Division. The Wild Card is such a crap shoot. But a scenario of winning the Wild Card and rolling on thru to a WS championship would be a big thrill.
Then, on to a repeat!
Jimmy, I think this team has too many good pieces for just 88 wins, but at least get me a Wild Card. Have Jake start it. And roll on from there.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets did have a very weak division in some of those years - along with very weak owners for a NY franchise. How much could be pinned on Sandy? Perhaps a lot. He was in charge when they picked Cecchini, for one. Giolito or one of the others made so much more sense. That hurt big, having an non-useful early first round selection.
John for this Mets team to not make a wild card, lots would have to go wrong. Lots went wrong in 2020. Hopefully, it will not repeat in that regard. I otherwise think the offense, plus defensive substitutions, will override the overall defense.
ReplyDeleteGary, great point - Cohen will spend if it makes sense, and spend a lot more freely than Fred and Jeff.
ReplyDeleteMack, perfectly understandable to be leery of injuries - they have upset many an apple cart over the years. I am thinking depth will tide us over until Carrasco, Thor and Lugo return. I think we could withstand a temporary hit or two on offense and survive it.
ReplyDeleteGood stuff . . always fun to do predictions.
ReplyDeleteOne quick point about Tom's division picks - the 'games up' are pretty conservative. I can't see all teams in the east to be above .500 (The Phillies 10 games back would be 84-78).
In my prediction article from a week or so ago, my picks were
1: Mets 90-72
2: Tie Braves and Nats 85-77
4: Marlins
5: Phillies
Because I can, I'm going to change it up just a bit. I have looked closer and really soured on the Nationals chances, so
1: Mets 92-70
2: Braves 87-75
3: Marlins 81-81 This team will be pesky and tough all year.
4: Phillies 79-83
5: Nationals 70-92 Much will go wrong with this team, especially on the mound.
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Padres
Wild Cards: Braves and Dodgers
AL East: Blue Jays
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: A's
Wild Cards: Yankees and Angels
Best NL team to not make the playoffs: Giants - they are really in a tough spot in that division.
Best AL team to not make the playoffs: Twins (followed by the Indians)
Biggest NL dive: Nationals
Biggest AL dive: Astros
1969 that in itself could have been a separate article!
ReplyDeleteWe are very close on the Mets' wins. I think the Braves will get into the low 90s, and I do agree that the Nats (despite some super talented players) will fall by the wayside. I think around 80 wins for the Nats.
Blue Jays have some young talent - if not this year, next year could be when they'll add their young 3 stud pitchers in earnest, and watch out then.
I did hear (don't know details) that Springer has an oblique issue - no idea how bad. Guys making $150 million are not allowed to get hurt!
I thought about putting that into an article. . maybe I'll take this as the base and add some individual player predictions. Sounds like a good weekend task.
ReplyDeleteHere's a few more random predictions:
ReplyDelete1) Nimmo ends season with better OPS than Conforto.
2) Familia lasts the entire season; Gsellman & Betances do not.
3) May is only Meh.
4) Jeff hits above .310 BA.
5) Mets add a huge piece at trade deadline in July.
6) Stroman is only good, workmanlike, ERA in upper 3's.
7) Walker is better than that.
8) Dom spends real time on DL.
9) Pete talks waaaaay too much.
10) Rojas struggles managing an erratic bullpen -- and nothing makes a manager an easier target for second-guessers in the peanut gallery than when the bullpen falters. Keeps him job.
11) Syndergaard comes back and is up and down, problems with location, moved to pen for playoffs.
12) Lindor struggles first half of season -- lot of transitions -- evokes memories of Beltran's first season with Mets -- faces far tougher pitching in NL East than what he's used to in the AL Central. He adapts and goes on a memorable tear.
13) Carrasco . . . ? Maybe the season depends on him? Maybe he's the key. Because he could be truly great or not!
Jimmy
Interesting random predictions, Jimmy. I agree with some, not with others.
ReplyDelete1) Could be .. cannot argue with it.
2) Agree 100%
3) I think May will be better than Meh. I think the entire bullpen will be a strength of this team
4) I'll take the under on this one
5) I can't figure out what that piece would be .. third base? This is an interesting topic tho. Seems like something would have to go very wrong (major injury) for there to be a huge addition
6) I think a bit better than that - between 3 and 3.5
7) Hope so. Although I actually think Stro > Walker by year end
8) Hope not.
9) Don't disagree
10) see (3) above
11) I think he will take a half dozen starts to get his timing and stuff back, but I see him strong down the stretch and a key piece in the post season as a starter
12) Interesting thought. Just for grins, I'm going the other way, he'll get this team started on the right foot from the get-go and keep it going.
13) Agree.
Jimmy, I agree with most. Stroman I feel VERY good about. Dom...heaven forbid. I think Lindor is back to 2018.
ReplyDeletePete can only be PETE. Only thing that will quiet him is if he struggles.