Lindor Back in the Easy Days
When buying an expensive product, it pays to be extra cautious.
I bought a house back in the 1980s, ignoring warning signs, and it has (without going into detail) dramatically impacted our lives long-term. It was a mistake and a big one. Avoid big mistakes when you can. Life goes better.
Back to baseball, and Francisco Lindor.
I come not to bury him, but to analyze him.
I didn’t frankly when they got him. I was caught up in the euphoria. I dreamed that his arrival might launch the Mets to elite offensive status.
I have heard people bandy it abou, regarding Lindor now facing tougher NL pitching.
So I thought I'd take a gander at what pitching Lindor faced, particularly in his hey day years (2017-19) when he averaged a stunning 80 extra base hits a year over 3 seasons.
Just like the Mets playing division rivals innumerable times, Lindor played 4 divisional teams with great frequency in those years: Minnesota, the White Sox, KC and the Sunshine Band, and Detroit.
In 2019, Cleveland was a remarkable 18-1 against Detroit and was 48-28 against those four patsies - err, I mean teams.
That's 76 of their 162 games, folks, or 47% of their games.
ERAs? Minnesota was very solid for an AL team, coming in at # 9 in baseball at 4.18. But Chicago, KC, and Detroit? 22nd, 27th, and 28th worst in ERA at 4.90, 5.20, and 5.24.
In other words, a hitter's delight if you are on Cleveland.
2018? 49-27 against those same 4 teams. Those 4 opposing teams were 22nd, 23rd, 26th, and 29th in ERA, with ERAs between 4.50 and 4.94. How do you spell "Bottom Quartile"?
2017? 50-26 against those 4 pushovers...err, I mean teams. Those opposing teams had ERAs ranked 19th, 20th, 25th, and 30th in baseball.
So, Lindor batted against an extraordinarily soft division, against which Cleveland in those 4 teams AVERAGED 49-27 (.645), a 104.4 win pace over a 162 game stretch. He did it against teams which, over the 3 main Lindor years, average-ranked 23.3 out of 30 teams in ERA, with an average ERA of not much under 5.00.
So, essentially, he was hitting against AAAA or AAAA+ pitching much of the time. That may explain a lot.
Yet the Mets paid him as if he had been hitting superbly against tough pitching NL teams, where the pitching over the same period (excluding, of course, the Mets) was tougher.
Just as a for-instance, in 2019, the Mets' 4 division opponents (Nats, Braves, Phils and Marlins) were 10th, 13th, 17th, and 20th in ERA, averaging an ERA of 4.44, vs the average 4.88 of the AL Central opponents of Lindor.
It also helps to play for a winner against inferior teams. Wind at your back, and all. And...Fatter, slower, straighter pitches.
Cleveland won an average of 95 games in those 3 years. The four division opponents (even with Minnesota winning 101 in 2019) averaged just 70 wins over those 3 years.
In 2020, the 4 AL Central opposing teams improved and averaged .500, and his numbers (I guess not surprisingly) correspondingly dropped. The 4 opposing teams finished 4th, 6th, 12th, and (of course) 30th in ERA...tougher pitching faced, 2020 stats wilted.
In general, Lindor has played far more times against below .500 teams, with presumably below average pitching, vs. .500 or higher teams with presumably stronger pitching.
Career numbers:
At or above .500: 1,557 PA (42.2%): .266/.327/.449
Below .500: 2,132 PA (57.8%): .291/.355/.498
Significant differences indeed - and those differences inflated his career stats.
What if 58% of his career PAs came against teams OVER .500?
He likely would have looked at least somewhat less “elite,” is my guess.
Playoffs? Facing tougher pitching?
105 PAs, .263/.327/.463, including 1 for 8 in 2020. Lower numbers. Not bad. But....Not “elite.”
Simply, Lindor was not, it seems, as good as his career numbers indicated, due to facing a lower level of competition.
And due to playing for a consistently winning team, with the wind at his back....less losing pressure. Less weight of world on shoulders.
Based on that, there is (in my mind) added evidence that he was overpaid by the Mets, perhaps grossly so, the Mets who should have therefore had every reason to take a wait-and-see approach to signing him long term.
Thoughts? Is there merit to this analysis? Steve Cohen may wish to read and respond.
Outstanding work Tom. Let me answer for Cohen, the ink is dry. It’s done. The first recommendation by Alderson & Co. has not gotten off to a good start. However, Lindor’s stats were good the second half of last year after a bad start, so let’s see.
ReplyDeleteI also loved the trade, but wasn’t thrilled at the contract. But, it’s done.
Remember that one week in spring training? It was maybe week three, and the signing deadline was inching closer. Lindor went off on that inferior pitching, something like three homers and hitting .470ish. I told a buddy I hoped they didn’t sign him, and he went out and had an MVP type year so he could break the bank. Instead....here we are. Hope he gets adjusted in the second half, and I think he should start small. Stop with the crazy hair and flashy uniform accessories. Go back to basics until you find yourself. “Look at me” only works when you want folks to be looking! Of course I say all of this knowing I could never hit a curve ball, so what the hell do I know!? LGM!!!!
ReplyDeleteGUS, THANKS. i TRULY WAS LOOKING AT BIG PICTURE WHEN THEY GOT HIM - WHAT SEEMED TO BE (TO ME) A TOP 5-10 OFFENSE, TOP 5-10 STAFF (sorry for caps), and did not delve into Lindor. I am concerned but if everyone returns healthy by July 1, the wind ought to be at his back strongly again.
ReplyDeleteJFitz, he sold me right then, too, in that torrid spring training week. I am not concerned about hair, just performance, but the hair is making some fans more critical of him - I'd ditch it if I were him, to show he is dead serious about pivoting here.
ReplyDeleteMy brother had a nasty curve before be hurt his arm when he was 17 thru gross overuse. But I faced him once, when I was in my late 20's, he was 16. Lefty vs. lefty. I didn't hit one of them. Not one.
This is a great analysis Tom. Frankly one the FO should have been doing.
ReplyDeleteI was never a huge fan of the trade. It filled a hole we didn't seemingly need to fill. In the end it was hard to argue too hard against it. We were getting Lindor for only a year but also a front line starter for a few years which made up for some of the talent we were giving up. No matter how it works out I can't kill them too hard for the trade part.
The extension thing was a debacle from the start. These massive contracts are almost universally a disaster. I posted about this here before but outside of the Jeter contract almost no player was above average for even half of their 10yr deal. Aside from this it also just didn't make sense. He had a bad 2020 and end of 2019 that were red flags. There was a glut of FA SS coming on the market next year.
He was also not a guy that was going to put up Tatis like offensive numbers, he was a defensive whiz that could hit pretty good but not elite. The Mets gave him a contract you would reserve for a MVP caliber player. Lindor has never finished higher than 5th in the MVP rankings and that was 2017. Even if Lindor was MVP in 2021 was there really a team that was going to pay 341m for his services? I guess this is possible but the upside past 341m is much smaller than the downside. I would say this first 25% of the season would have already cost him over 100m off his contract and thats only if he finishes strong. Basically the Mets bet on Lindor being a MVP this year which is quite the long shot because thats the only way this contract makes sense.
I think too many people were caught in the euphoria of Lindor. He was practically anointed god by the media, several prominent Mets blogs & tweeters. There was a massive contingent mocking those of us saying 12yrs and 400m was too much $. They literally wanted to give him anything he wanted. I honestly think Lindor parlayed a strong Spring Training to a ridiculous contract. I think even the level headed Cohen got caught up in it. He wanted to make a splash as an owner and his fandom might have push away his cut throat business mindset.
Where does this lead us going forward? I hope and pray he turns it around and can at least give us 5-6 years of above average production. It's almost impossible he & McCann can keep hitting this poorly right?? Heck he has been so bad I would take that .266/.327/.449 slashline against the better teams. I sure hope this doesn't turn into a situation like Pujols or Chris Davis where you hand out a big contract and then deal with a below average player for years and years blocking younger more talented players from improving the team.
Amazing job Tom.
ReplyDeleteMy read is the Met FO should read Mack's Mets it could have saved Stevie a fortune. Were seemingly all on the same page on Lindor with a heavy bend toward "what's the rush". The biggest problem now is how this will affect future signing's as we all are lead to believe Cohen will spend big forever we really don't know that yet and will he now clean out the FO if Lindor and McCann don't improve. I guess time will tell but your post Tom begs the question: HOW DID THE FO MISS THIS? Stevie needs to ask the tough questions here.
ReplyDeleteGary if the FO read Mack's Mets, they'd have brought back Fonzie and not Terry Collins.
ReplyDeleteDallas, I truly think Lindor will turn it around, but like you said: with the glut of shortstops coming out, why the urge to seal the $341 million deal? Cohen probably wanted to make a splash, even thinking he was overpaying.
ReplyDeleteI think the thinking was not so much MVP as Lindor would make them a top 3 or 4 contender for the World Series crown. This year and for the next few. But that did not necessitate a huge extension pre-season.
I've posted it here before, but at age 23 and 24, Zoilo Versalles, a 1960's SS, had very good years. In his age 25 season, AL MVP. The following year, a big drop off, but still decent. After that, from 27 on, he was awful. Look him up. It can happen. Hopefully, not here.
Reyes had that batting title year and was close to what Lindor appeared to be in caliber. I really thought Jose's speed and fast twitch would keep him near elite into his late 30s. It did not.
Off topic, but close, can you imagine if Conforto was extended early too? How is the Lindor deal and his own slow start and injury going to affect him? Time will tell. But, as I have said before, get to season's end and buy the best. If Conforto is not at the top of the buy list, take a pass.
LOL right John. My biggest sigh of relief this morning is JLo is "committed to a long-distance romance with Ben Affleck so I can now sleep better at night.
ReplyDeleteGary, I will again admit, I was excited they got Lindor, did not look at it very closely or think much about it, saw the 80 extra base hits a year, and said "Great. I hope they know what they're doing, but now let's win a World Series." The thought for this article just hit me yesterday. On Facebook, some folks fiercely defend him (most seem to be Latino, based on observation) and many trash him. So I thought, why not take that deeper dive.
ReplyDeleteThis was really only the beginning of the deep dive the front office should have done. I, for instance, did not see how well he hit against Chicago, Detroit, KC and Minny each of those years. I did not look to see how many of his hits and extra baggers were against those teams' mop up guys in blow outs, fattening his stats.
With all due respect to Yamamoto, if the opposing teams' entire pitching staffs were Yamamotos, or Oswalts or the like, and that is who Lindor was facing constantly. he should have hit as well as he did , or better.
What if Alonso was in that Division for Cleveland in those years? Does he hit 60 a year?
You get my drift.
J Lo as owner and F Low as SS? LOL
ReplyDeleteGood piece Tom.
ReplyDeleteThanks, John and Mack
ReplyDeleteBut maybe the Mets did all this analysis, and Cohen wanted to pull the trigger anyway, to make a big splash. In the move Draft Day, the owner point blank told Costner, the GM, that he wanted him to make a big splash, "because people like to get wet, Sonny."
ReplyDeleteWe have splashdown.
Brody wanted to make a splash so he got Cano...Sandy/Cohen wanted to make a splash so they got Lindor...Please no more splashes. Let's build a team from the ground up.
ReplyDeleteBring back Fonzie and go get the entire Tampa Bay FO.
One long term deal besides Jeter's that went really well for the team was Max Scherzer. Can anyone think of others?
ReplyDeleteJohn, sometimes "splash" becomes "crash" instead. The Mets' landscape is strewn with "crashes". Most, like Cespedes' deal, have been limited to 4 seasons. For better or for worse, for richer or for poorer, the nuptials took place, and Lindor is going to be paid for 10.75 more seasons. We are in uncharted territory.
ReplyDeleteI was one of rhe few who opposed trading for Lindor. Thought we were well stocked at ss and had other pressing needs. Cohen wanted to make a splash by trading and signing him. We can only hope he turns it around to be at least an average player.
ReplyDeleteRay, I was down on Rosario, but like Matz, he seems to have taken his prior shortcomings seriously enough to fix them. One advantage he has over Lindor is he is a few years younger, and this is a young man's sport.
ReplyDeleteGimenez - who knows? I remember Tejada hitting in the .280s when he was 21 and 22, and then descending sharply into mediocrity. My guess is he will turn it around, but time will tell.
Gimenez went 4 for his last 41, then got sent to AAA about 10 days ago, I just noted. Cameron Maybin has called him for batting tips. "FOUR HITS!!! How did you do it, Andres?"
Unfortunately, the Mets announced today that Thor is out until AT LEAST late August. Carrasco my be out that long, too, so kiss your July 1st hopes goodbye.
ReplyDeleteSome wheeling and dealing may be in order, unless Lucchesi or someone else (Szapucki?) steps up big time.
Bill, I think Megill pitches tonight. Let’s see if he utterly dominates again. He may be better than Szapucki? Megill may be an answer by July 1.
ReplyDelete"Brody wanted to make a splash so he got Cano...Sandy/Cohen wanted to make a splash so they got Lindor...Please no more splashes"
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely agree with this. Porter/Scott have made a ton of great moves (McCann was prior to them). The Lindor extension to me was the only illogical head scratcher that I had to chalk up to the "splash". There was a lot of pressure by everyone to get it done and they caved.
Tom I posted this before from the bigger contracts and just evaluating it based on how many decent bWAR seasons they had. VERY few had 5 productive above average years and of those that did some were PED users.
Votto 10yrs (@28) several elite yrs, last 3 look bad
Scott Rolen 8yrs (@28) 5yrs of 4WAR+ productive player
Manny Ramirez 8yrs (@29) 7 productive years but PEDs involved
Jeter 10yrs (@27) very good first 9 yrs
AROD 2 10yr deals: largely productive but PEDs involved and opted out on one of them
Posey 9yrs (@26) 5 good yrs, this is a win
Longoria 10yrs (@27) first 5yrs good & productive then bad
Helton 11yrs (@29) last 6 years mediocre
Pujols 10yrs (@32) 1yr of 4 WAR, the rest mediocre to bad
Hampton 8yrs (@28) disaster for all 8 years
Soriano 8yrs (@31) first yr productive, 7 bad years
Wright 8yrs (@30) 1 good year then disaster
Cabrera 8yrs (@33) 1 good year then disaster
Kemp 8yrs (@27) 8 years of disaster
Adrian Gonzalez 8yrs (@29) 3 productive years the rest disaster
Teixeira 8yrs (@29) 2rs above 4WAR, 3 terrible years
Mauer 8yrs (@28) 2 yrs above 4WAR, 4years below 2WAR
Griffey 9yrs (@30) 1 good yr, 7rs below 2WAR
Fielder 9yrs (@28) 1 good yr then complete disaster
Andrus 10yrs (@24) 1 good yr rest less than 3WAR
Braun 10yrs (@27) 3 good yrs, last 5 terrible, PEDs
Tulowitzki 10yrs (@26) 3 elite yrs, last 5 of 6yrs terrible
Stanton 13yrs (@25) 1 elite, 1 good, last 2yrs bad
Cano 10yrs (@31) 5 good yrs, PED suspensions, last 5 look bad