For almost 15 years, between 2004 and 2018, who manned third base was never in question. David Wright, the Mets’ beloved Captain, had been the face of New York Mets franchise up and until his retirement in 2018.
Now, the Mets have a collection of pretty good players, prospects, potential trade targets, and soon to be free agent targets, that could conceivably man the position for both the near term and long term.
Already in the organization, at the major league level, J.D. Davis has an elite bat, who could star at the position if he could get his glove up to an adequate level; Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are both high end prospects with bright futures, Baty especially as a top 50 prospect is highly thought of inside the organization and around the game. So is Vientos, who in my book is significantly underrated, and has .920 OPS in AA Binghamton as one of the youngest players in the league. Ronny Mauricio, as well, who is playing SS in High-A Brooklyn, could also slide over to third as many project him to be a larger man than he is today, who may not have the agility to remain at shortstop. He is not taking over at SS anyway with Francisco Lindor under contract for the next 10 season. We also have Jeff McNeil, also a top hitter, who can theoretically man third base. Externally, the Mets have been linked to Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, and reports recently of Jose Ramirez becoming available, also expand the collection of players who could conceivably man the position beyond this season.
But with such a wide array of options, many of whom are already on the team or in the organization, we are forced to start thinking about what we should do to shore up other parts of the roster, namely our starting pitching and bullpen, with so many potential options at the hot corner.
Its a good problem to have, but also given the circumstances, it forces us to address the other question, which one of these hypothetical routes at third base should we go down?
The other other question is...is the player we’re getting in return worth it? And if they aren’t worth it, does it matter that what we’re giving up might not be worth as much as we get in return in the long run? Life and baseball transactions aren’t always pure mathematical transactions after all. We can’t ignore timing and the prospect of winning.
To me, if we want to win a World Series this year, and continue to remain competitive every year for the next several years, Jose Berrios or Max Scherzer are the only player available worth yielding one of our top two third base prospects for, and that is only because we have depth at the third base position. Just like Michael Fulmer was available in 2015 when we acquired Yoenis Cespedes as a rental, we only did it because we had a very deep rotation. So while we won't get equal value, we might just get a chance to win the World Series, and that's the ultimate goal right? Ideally, we would be maximizing our value if the Cleveland Guardians make Shane Bieber available, the Rockies make German Marquez available, or the Reds make Luis Castillo available, which seems unlikely.
Is Mark Vientos or Brett Baty worth more today than Jose Berrios or Max Scherzer in a vacuum? ABSOLUTELY. We’re talking about 2 players that each probably have the ability to be at minimum 2-3 WAR player per year for 6 years at a low cost; whereas Berrios is a solid, ascending, but still unspectacular pitcher, racking up between a 2-3 WAR himself per season over the last several years, and likely in line for a big contract. But even as he has ascended, he is not an ace. He is a few tiers down, in the same space as Marcus Stroman, Joe Musgrove, and Zach Elfin. A solid #3 type starter. Scherzer is an ace, but he's 37 and won't be around much longer. He would be a pure rental.
In conclusion, given the # options we have a third, and our current prospect of winning, we should bite the bullet and trade for Scherzer or Berrios, and give up one of our third base options.
As much as I hate giving up prospects - you make a lot of sense. Vientos will be Rule 5 eligible this off season - now may be the time to move him. Perhaps the Nationals could throw in Carter Kieboom to soften the blow to the Mets or the Twins can take back Cano to lose Donaldson off their books and get a better prospect.
ReplyDeleteI'd consider making Vientos available if it means getting a solid starter in return.
ReplyDeleteBaty is the future 3B
ReplyDeleteBut JDD is the 3B right frickiin' now, and if you don't like it you can start rooting for the hapless NYY across town with no starting rotation much beyond Scranton's.
The future is I guess "fun" to talk about, but don't spend too much time dwelling there on it because it may not ever happen anything like the way you think that it could. Ask Jarred Kelenic, everyone's cannot miss OF. Yeah sure.
See what I mean?
I bigtime believe in team chemistry.
ReplyDeleteEvery single winning professional sports team that ever won a championship in their respective sport had it. No exceptions to this rule that I can think of.
The 2021 NY Mets team chemistry is at a really high level. You get "picky pants" (like with a new GM for instance wishing to make a name for themselve) and maybe try to bring in that 2B Frazier guy (Todd was enough for me personally) from Pittsburgh or 3b/LF Kris Bryant from the Cubs (and please tell me why if these guys are so darn good that their current teams would be willing to trade them away and you then have subtracted a player from here that was a key part of the good team chemistry on the Mets.
It's "Dumbo Land" to me to do this.
It isn't the hitting nor the fielding...It's the rotation strength and depth. Don't fix it if it isn't broken.
So who would I bring in as an insurance starter more?
ReplyDeleteSimple.
Charlie Morton. Not Max Scherzer who is nursing an injury at current.
Charlie.
The author's premise that Mets need to decide today who's their future third baseman, is utterly ridiculous. That's amateur begging Mets to respond in same manner. That's not how things work.
ReplyDeleteThe question is whether the Mets are willing to part with any of their best prospects. What position that player might play is irrelevant because each of those players could also become multi-position players and could DH when that comes to the NL. Very, very few players these days are groomed for just one position.
Vientos - 3rd, 1st, DH
Baty - 3rd, 1st, left and right fields.
Mauricio - Everywhere but catcher and CF
I'll also add that Baty could also learn to play second.
ReplyDeleteAnd should Vientos actually improve his poor running mechanics, to get his foot speed in Dom Smith range, he could become a more realistic option to learn left field.
My thoughts on him are more akin to JD Davis defensively. A guy with a bat and arm needing a place to play, who also worked hard to improve foot speed like JD did.
As for Mauricio, I think he has untapped footspeed. A player with his build and long legs, should be able to get his footspeed above average through training and superb mechanics. He could then even provide some depth in CF. Basically super utility player all over the field, developed over the years.
Should he improve his plate approach, OBP and B.A. to solid levels, he could be our second baseman of the future, or frequently play nearly anywhere the team needs.
It's very possible, the Mets can field a team long term that includes Vientos, Baty, Mauricio, plus of course Alvarez and whomever they keep or extend from among current position players.