Good morning.
It is time to update MY Mets prospect list.
These are what I call the “Red” prospects or the guys I feel will someday make it to the big tent.
There aren’t many, but what we have are all very talented.
The rankings are based on both talent and projection. Two prospects tied in my mind, with one playing in Binghamton and the other in St. Lucie… well, the B-Met player will always win out here since he looks to be first to help us someday in Queens.
Not on the list are pitchers Tylor McGill and Sean Reid-Foley who have already crossed the line between the minors and the majors.
So, with that…
1. 3B/OF Brett Baty Brooklyn
Baty takes over the number one slot based on his dominating performance so far this season in Brooklyn. He is currently 4th in the league in wRC+, 1st in OBP, 2nd in BA, tied for second in doubles, 5th in hits and 6th in slugging and OPS.
He is done with this league and will obviously move on to Binghamton after he plays in his current league’s all-star game.
This will set up a collision cource with another third base “red man”, Mark Vientos, unless the Baty conversion to outfield continues there and/or Vientos moves on to Syracuse.
Either way, right now, Baty is the top Mets prospect.
2. C Francisco Alvarez Brooklyn
Alvarez tore up the division earlier this year in the division that St. Lucie plays in (formerly knows as the Sally League). He hit .417, and had an OPS of 1.213.
He quickly was promoted to Brooklyn, a league full of 21-23 year old. He currently has modest numbers here, but still has an OPS in the .900 range.
And remember… he’s only 19.
Probaby has more raw talent than Baty but Brett will climb the mountain first.
3. 3B/OF Mark Vientos Binghamton
Many followers of mine will find it strange that I picked Baty over Vientos. I’ve always been a big Vientos fan and was one only a few that projected him to one day being successful at the pro level.
The Mets drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft, right out of prep school. He hot .287 for K-Port in 2018, followed by 12-HR, 62-RBI for Columbia in 2019. This year, less than half the season long, he has equalled the 12 home runs hit in 2019, and has a .911-OPS.
Vientos will beat Baty to Queens and could be an everyday player in 2022. He now projects to be a 30+ home run hitter and the Mets are now toying with him in the outfield.
4. RHSP JT Ginn St. Lucie
Unlike many Mets that have gone down for TJS after they were drafted, Ginn got that procedure over in college.
The 22-year old was a Friday night starter for Mississippi State and projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2020 draft before going down early. He missed the rest of the season and the Mets were considered to be really rolling the dice when they paid him above scale in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft.
So far, the choice seems to be a good one. In six starts this season for St. Lucie, he’s 1-1, 3.04, 0.98.
The only downside of this pick is if arm problems develop again. If not, he could wind up as the steal of that draft.
5. SS Ronny Mauricio Brooklyn
Mauricio has moved down on my board, not because receeding skills but because others just simply passed him.
The Mets signed the 20-year old Dominican with big bonus bucks. His best season was 2019 for Columbia, hitting .268 with four homers in 470-AB. This season, his BA is way down (.228), but he has already hit 8 home runs in 180 at-bats.
He was projected to develop this power especially after adding 20 pounds of pure muscle this off-season.
What he needs to now is start hitting more for average as well as lowering his 51 strikeouts in 180 at-bats.
If not, he will quickly move down this list.
6. RHSP Matt Allen Brooklyn
Sad story coming here.
The Mets pulled a fasty in the 2019 draft when they offered top over slot money to Allen who was highly rumored to be unapproachable and on the way to college.
The 18-year old Allan was off to the races when the Mets assigned him to the GCL-Mets and he went 1-0, 1.08, 1.08, in 5-games, 4-starts. Then, after only two innnings in Brooklyn, everyone knew something was wrong. He was shut down and eventually TJS took away the rest of that season and all of this one.
Where he goes from here, nobody knows, but this is one of the top young pitching talents in baseball and he will keep is RED status until he shows me he can’t handle the red.
7. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong St. Lucie
The 18-year old was picked 19th overall by the Mets in the 2020 draft. Many considered him as the top outfielder that year and even more couldn’t believe he fell this low on the board.
He was hitting .417 in the first six games this year for Lucy when he crashed into the wall trying to catch a fly ball. That was the end of his season this year.
No one is talking about what his injury was but it did cause surgery.
I sure hope he comes back strong. This is a huge talent both offensively and with a glove on his hand.
8. OF Alex Ramirez St. Lucie
We’re entering raw territory now.
Ramirez was given a boatload of bonus money by the Mets in 2018 to sign. He was one of the top international prospects that year and projected for huge power someday.
This year, at 18-years old, he’s playing for St. Lucie, and holding his own with a .275-BA and 2-HRs in 102-AB.. Like most young power hitters, he is striking out too much (39), but that could come down in time.
Ramirez is this highly ranked because the Mets are so thin in top prospect talent.
9. OF Carlos Cortes Binghamton
A newbie.
The 24-year old Cortes was a 3rd round pick in 2018, out of USC. I saw a lot of him down here in South Carolina and thought that picking him in the 3rd was a little bit of a stretch.
Still, he did fair that year in Brooklyn (.264) and a follow up uear in 2019 for St. Lucie (.255, 11-HR).
This year, for AA-Binghamton, he made a conversion from second base to left field and things began to gel. So far, through 7-5, he is hitting .284, with 9-HRs in 190 at-bats.
I’m not sure if Cortes is a potential starter in Queens, but he sure is starting to look like a qualified power bat off the bench.
10. SP Robert Dominguez St. Lucie
Talk about raw.
Dominguez made a lot of noise in 2019 when he signed a bonus contract for a couple of bucks (10K) and it turned out he can throw a 100mph fastball. What we call around here as the second making or “He Has Trouble With The Curve”.
Has pitched one inning so far for the FCL Mets… no runs and no strikeouts.
Way too early to project, but this is the 10th best in the system.
Great list and I completely agree with the rankings although probably due to injury cause Crow and allen could have made that list harder to make.
ReplyDeleteBut I wouldn’t touch that too 7. Which makes trades difficult since you have to give something to get.
Because of Lindor Mauricio is the one that would have to be sacrificed but it should only be for a qualified player. Berrios comes to mind (27 and established MLer)
We need to use our financial flexibility to bring in someone who can help and won’t cost us our top 7.
Josh Donaldson comes to mind but is baty ready in a year ? Or Vientos ? Then maybe Donaldson would have too long a contract.
Heck since the cano issues is still around is he our platoon 2b next year so we don’t just eat thet 20 million contract?
Even tho Kelenic didn’t fair well in his first time in the majors we sure could use some of these top 7 to explode on the scene.
Megill wasn’t in the cards but if he can take hold he could be the biggest chip or biggest contributor….
And he was never a top 10…
Alway feel someone needs to perform you don’t expect to win a division…. Conforto was that guy in 2015…
Matz was too…
Vientos could be ready for next season
ReplyDeleteMack, I also wish to give my nod to this list. Very fair and honest, it speaks volumes. Trading away Kelenic and Dunn to get rid of Bruce and Swarzak is so Couponian. Seems like the Mariners are getting more out of our former players than we do, and they pick them up as soon as we cut them. That can’t be an accident. There’s a secret out there about our development and player evaluators…
ReplyDeleteI am hoping this changes as soon as Sandy is put out to sea
DeleteMack, excellent list. Just a footnote that Baty’s numbers, and especially Mauricio’s, have been crushed at home in Brooklyn. I speak first hand…da wife wanted to go to her favorite LI south shore beach. I am sitting here in a sustained STRONG wind. Oceanfront is a terrible place for baseball. Luke Ritter also severely impacted by Brooklyn conditions.
ReplyDeleteMauricio is .114/.167/.165
ReplyDeleteLastly, while Mets’ minors W/L records are bad, the hitter in your list are collectively strong.
ReplyDeleteDue to Fargas and Almora and Crows "crash into the wall" injuries wouldn't it make sense to look into improving outfield wall padding. When you factor in the cost to a team to fix the wall or fix the player and the time lost on the IL it would seem to be worth it.
ReplyDeleteThis is a really solid top ten prospect list Mack. Thanks for posting.
ReplyDelete