Tom Brennan - METS' FIRST ROUNDERS OF BASEBALL SEASONS PAST

 

We selected Pete Crow-Armstrong 19th overall in 2020, and he certainly exhibited promise in spring training as a future elite defensive CF with great speed.  Let's hope he meets, and even better, exceeds expectations as a star major leaguer, once he heals up.

Let me also say that Mack has done a Herculean job on combing through this year's prospects and sharing his thoughts for months on what the potential draftees have to offer and where they might slot in during this draft, no easy task. 

A big thanks to him for all those efforts.

I wrote the following historical piece last year, as we approached the 2020 draft.  Thought it might be fun to post it up again for y'all.

As we close in on this year's draft, it got me thinking about Mets' drafts of yore.  

If the Mets, or any team for that matter, draft well, and dynasties can result - draft poorly, your franchise will sputter and stall a lot and/or you will spend tons on free agents.

Any baseball guru will tell you that the MLB draft is something of a crap shoot, even in the first round, where one would surmise that most franchise stars come from.

The higher a guy is drafted in the first round, the more the guy should be a future star.

#1 overall, most times your pick should become a future star or even a superstar.  To a large degree, that applies to #2 thru #5, too.

Picks 6 through 10 should vary from becoming a decent everyday player (or pitching starter) up to a star.

Picks 11 through 20 get iffier, but most of them should at least have modest big league careers, and many should be better.

Picks 21-30 are less likely to be impact players than the first 20 picks than pick #11 - #20.  But many of the 21-30 crowd ought to do reasonably well in the majors.  Heck, that was the grouping where the Angels nabbed Mike Trout.

At least that is how I see it.

Draft well, and dynasties can result - draft poorly, your franchise will sputter and stall a lot and/or you will spend tons on free agents.

So I decided, using the above round groupings' rules of thumb, to see how the Mets have done overall with their first round picks.

I listed them all in descending pick order, ranked by overall earliest picks first - my comments collectively tell me the Mets have done a truly poor job overall with first round picks.  

You check it out, and see if you agree.

Yr	Name	Pos	Overall Pick #	Tom Comment
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	Shoulda took Reggie Jackson - BUST!
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	.251/.283/.309 in 6,047 career ABs - not #1 overall caliber
1980	Darryl Strawberry	OF	1	Obvious, great pick - almost picked Billy Beane (did later)
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	.227 hitter in 809 at bats, none with the Mets - BUST!
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	Looked promising, hurt his arm, 40-58, 4.86 ERA career
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	Look promising, got hurt, just 24 MLB innings - BUST!
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	78-105, 4.36 ERA; 1 very good year, 17-11, 2.91 for LA
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	Obviously a very good pick
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	See Paul Wilson, he looked good until he hurt his arm.
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	Great pick
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	He did get 9 major league innings in BUST!
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	244 ABs, .205 - BUST!
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	1145 ABs, .252/.319/.398; none with Mets; # 4, BUST!
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	BINGO!  Superb pick.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	99 career at bats, .162.  Sweet pick.  BUST!
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	Never made the majors - BUST!
2018	Jared Kelenic	OF	6	Soon to be great, perhaps, but not as a Met
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	Great pick, eventually kneecapped by injuries
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	Never made the majors, another gem of a pick - BUST!
1992	Preston Wilson	SS-OF	9	Very good pick - some great years
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	Not very good most of career, 68-103, 4.68 ERA - BUST!
2014	Michael Conforto	OF	10	Great pick - MC Hammer
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	May still turn out to be a great pick
2003	Lastings Milledge	OF	12	Excuses aside, a mediocre pick - BUST!
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	Terrible pick - BUST!
2019	Brett Baty	OF	12	We'll soon find out how good he will be
1972	Richard Bengston	C	13	Well, he briefly made it to AA, so you tell me - BUST!
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF-RH	13	He stunk in AAA, briefly, that was his high point - BUST!
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	Minor leagues .243 hitter - BUST!
2011	Brandon Nimmo	RF	13	Looked shaky until it looked very good!
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	5'10', 165 IF had 10 MLB at bats, but alas, no hits - BUST!
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	Very good pick
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	Very good pick, foolishly discarded by the Mets
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	Wal-ly, Wal-ly!  Very good pick
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	12 wins, 5.65 ERA in the majors: BUST!
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	2-1 in 28 career innings - for Atlanta - BUST!
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	Excellent pick for a 17th overall
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	.213 minor league hitter - BUST!
1992	Christopher Roberts	OF-LH	18	Peaked at 7-21, 5.52 ERA in AAA - BUST!
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	Was awful in A Ball - BUST!
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	Great pick
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	Very solid pick
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	Looking like a very solid pick - Seattle thinks so, anyway
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	832 major league at bats, .216.  BUST!
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	Awesome pick, mishandled by cocky Mets teammates
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	3,068 at bats, .269.  Solid pick for a # 20 overall.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	Time will tell.
1986	Lee May	OF	21	Daddy hit great, but this Lee May was awful.  BUST!
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	Proctor was a bad gamble, barely made it to AA. BUST!
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	Speedster was a powerless utility player for several years.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	Injuries robbed his chances of making the big leagues.
1970	*-George Ambrow	SS	23	Apparently never played - BUST!
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	Billy Bust: 301 MLB at bats, .219/.243/.296 - BUST!
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	.220 in just 50 MLB at bats - BUST!
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	798 at bats, .233/.319/.355 - BUST!
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	78 major league at bats, .167 - BUST!
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	Looking promising - for the Toronto Blue Jays.

I list half (29) of the Mets' 57 top picks as BUSTS!  

HALF!  

Insanely bad, if you ask me, especially with 19 BUST picks in the first 9 overall picks over the years, which is pretty darned inexcusable.  Unless you’re Dolly Parton. 

Also, there were a few I did not list as busts that I could have - for instance, a # 1 overall pick should do better than Tim Foli did, or a # 2 like Tim Leary did - you could argue that they were BUST! picks, too.

Add to the BUST! picks the several other quality picks that shorted out due to injury, like Reese Havens, because they all count in the end, and the historical draft results are even worse.

I gave them a D+ for their entire first round draft history.

Just curious - can you think of any teams that have drafted worse over the years? 

For sure, there have been a few great picks, and a decent number of picks who did solidly, relative to where they were picked in the first round.

Let me close by noting that in my opinion, top round drafting seems much better in recent years, which is a relief.