Reese Kaplan -- Do You Give Up on Most Internal Free Agents?

The off-season can't come fast enough for long suffering Mets fans.  They did tease us this year and for about half of the length of the season it appeared as if the long-lost postseason appearance was going to become reality.  Then the rest of the league caught up with the various AAAA players and slumping starters to let the Mets know that finishing above .500 became the more suitable goal to achieve.

The problem most people have is that the Mets are regarded as being well beyond the one or two player fix that will push them into the October bracket.  With Michael Conforto, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Javy Baez, Jeurys Familia and Aaron Loup all set for free agency, the fact is that there is an awful lot of room in that locker room for new faces.  

The problem is that winning a pennant isn't like playing fantasy baseball.  Simply throwing a collection of people into the same locker room is not a guarantee of success, particularly when the front office and the on-the-field management are both in need of revision.  

While the debates rage on regarding Conforto, Syndergaard, Stroman and Baez in terms of long term and high dollar contracts, that may not be the best way to get started.  The much more modest price tags associated with Jonathan Villar and Aaron Loup may be the smarter plays up front before you pretty much run out of money on the other roster spots.  Both of these guys performed well over their salary levels and should help reinforce the rest of the team in whatever number of innings they both play during 2022.  

I ventured a rather explosive softball concept to some Mets fans the other day and the impact of the blast still smarts a bit.  What if...the Mets treated the top three free agents as they likely will regard Jeurys Familia...as expendable depth that can be replaced.  Now before you light the fuse and toss that bomb at my size 11 feet, hear me out.  

Right now the Mets are being pressed to spend Steve Cohen's payroll budget on Michael Conforto.  Somehow they're assuming that 2021 was an outlier slump year and he is worth whatever he seeks because of his track record.  Let's take a look at that notion for a moment.

In a typical year the lefty slugger should deliver a .254 average with 28 HRs and 82 RBIs.  Those numbers are indeed impressive and certainly can help.  In his best years he achieved 3.7 and 3.6 WAR ratings, but in his other years it was fairly ugly.  

Right now Conforto earns $12+ million and will be seeking to double that number at a minimum.  Frankly that total does not sound like a good investment.  That old mantra about Ralph Kiner in that we could lose with him or lose without him comes to mind.  Let someone else spend that kind of coin and find another way to fund a rebuild.

Now let's move onto Noah Syndergaard.  He hasn't pitched well since 2018 when he was 13-4 in an injury-shortened year with a 3.03 ERA.  He struck out a perfect 9 per 9 IP and walked just 2.3.  That effort was worth 4.1 WAR.  Great stuff, indeed.

Then came 2019 when his output was way off kilter and he was worth just 2.8 WAR.  Now that's certainly not bad, but during a recovery year in 2022 no one knows which Thor will emerge.  He's going to be looking for Zack Wheeler money for many years and at age 29 someone is going to bite.  Why does it have to be the Mets?  

Nay sayers to me will turn around and say, "But look at what Wheeler has become since leaving the Mets!!!"  He's been worth every penny of his 5-year $118 million contract.  In fact, the pitchers today just a few years later will be seeking even more.  

That brings us to diminutive hurler, Marcus Stroman.  When he was acquired people were please but not over-the-top thrilled.  He's played the walk-year game perfectly, currently sporting an ERA of just 2.88 through a league leading 31 starts.  His record isn't very good (but then again, neither is his team's record).  He has struck out 8 per 9 IP and walked just 2.1.  For that effort he's earning a cool $18.9 million.  If he pitched like that every year then he'd be pushing the $30 million annual threshold when it comes to his paycheck.

However, if you look back at his career mostly in Toronto, he's been good but not great.  He's only one game over .500 for his career and his ERA is 3.61.  Those are not bad numbers but hardly worthy of the Jacob deGrom stratosphere for contractual income.  He'll seek and likely get $25 million per year for four years at a minimum.  As a comparison, with his two strong years in Philly Wheeler lowered his career ERA to a similar 3.53 though with a better winning percentage.  With Stroman not being a flamethrower it's possible he might get a bit less, but it's still expensive.  

Finally, consider the mid season import of Javy Baez.  He's shown fans that when he's on, he can win with his power, his legs and his fielding, but he's also demonstrated some immaturity as well.  He and his best buddy have not provided the 1-2 punch that was envisioned and the trade is mostly going to be written off as a bad one.  The Mets cannot gain any compensation by extending a QO since he was moved during a season, so the choice is signing him or saying goodbye.  

Right now Baez earns a rather modest $11.6 million but he'll have his eyes on at least doubling that annual total for many years.  With a guy pushing nearly 200 strikeouts for the season, it's a tough call.  Had he not done that thumbs-down thing, there might be a few more people in his cheering section.  

So right now let's assume the Mets kept all of their top notch free agents.  You'd be looking at potentially $20 million for Conforto, $22 million for Baez, $24 million for each of Stroman and Syndergaard.  Then remember you have $35.5 million and another $21 million or so for Robinson Cano.  So if you indeed played the cards that were dealt and kept them all, just this group of a half dozen players would start the 2022 payroll at $156.5 million before you considered the other 20 players needed to round out the roster.  That figure does not include Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup nor Jonathan Villar.  

So instead, suppose they all walked away.  You might play the QO game with a few of them and reap some compensation or you might end up with one more year to start this exercise and negotiation all over again.  But let's assume they leave...you start off still owing deGrom and Cano $56.5 but the other $100 million is available to address the many other needs the club will have.  

Would you rather have four solid non-All Stars like Starling Marte?  For the record he had an off-year in 2020, but a typical 162 game average is 18 HRs, 71 RBIs, 42 SBs and a .289 average with very solid defense.  Given the fact he's 32 this season it's unlikely his annual value nor length of contract would approach any of these soon-to-be ex-Mets.  

I haven't fished around to figure out who between the majors, the bench, other clubs' trade options and free agents the Mets could instead use to build a club, but it certainly seems like it is worth exploring.  After all, the Mets have lost a lot of games under the productivity of Stroman, Syndergaard, Baez and Conforto.  What makes you think all of the sudden they will do a 180 and make them winners?