Tom Brennan - A Closer Look at Mets' Righty Prospect JT Ginn

JT Ginn was considered to be an upcoming super prospect while in college.

At the time of the draft in 2020, Mack wrote:

Ginn was a real bonus here. 

I had him 1.4 in my first mock, prior to his arm injury. 

The good news here?

The Mets medical and coaching staff have a lot of experience with TJS recovery. 

Separately, Mack wrote this just prior to Ginn being selected:

JT Ginn – Mississippi State – Ginn went out for the season after only one start with ‘arm soreness’. It resulted in TJS and calls into play whether he will be picked at all this draft. Shame. He was a pre-season Top 10 pick.

It wasn't, as it turns out, a complete "shame" - it may have been a shame for JT Ginn, but it was a blessing for the NY Mets.

Mack, as noted, had Ginn pegged as high as the FOURTH overall pick for 2020, before his arm injury.  

Who wouldn't want a 4th overall pick?  

The Mets haven't had one that high in a mighty long time.  

Because, while they are lousy most years, they are never quite lousy enough.

It was a risky move to even TRY to draft and sign him.

Most other teams passed on JT, thinking he'd not sign at a discount.  

But sign he did, at 52nd overall.  At an over-slot $2.9 million.

JT did need TJ surgery, right around the same time as Thor. 

Surgery in March of 2020, 3 months prior to the draft.   Good for the Mets.  It made JT Ginn's return timetable mid-2021.

DDanny Abriano of SNY in a mid-2020 article wrote this:

After the draft ended on Thursday night, Mets brass -- including GM Van Wagenen and director of amateur scouting Tommy Tanous -- were ecstatic over landing Ginn.

"This is a rare combination of turbo-sink as we call it, with strikeout ability," Tanous said, noting that the Mets had their eye on him for a while. 

"He's anywhere from 91 (mph) to 99. (He has) an out pitch curveball he throws at will for strikes. It's a plus changeup. ... He's got all the qualities of being a top of the rotation guy."

He healed a lot quicker than Syndergaard, and returned to the mound on June 3 for the first of his 18 starts this year.   So, it appears he lost almost no actual playing time and development due to the surgery, unlike, say, Thor, who is essentially missing 2 full years.

92 JT innings amassed for St Lucie and Brooklyn. 

3.03 ERA. 1.05 WHIP.  Sweet. 

I heard anecdotally that Ginn was hitting 95 on the gun late this season.

Presumably, he will be no-holds-barred in 2022.  There is no reason to not promote him to AA to start the season, after having 10 of his 18 starts in Brooklyn, where his ERA was 3.38. (If it were me, though, I'd protect his arm and start him for a few games in warm, sunny St Lucie, then bump him to AA).

Drop out one 2021 start where he gave up 5 earned in 3 innings, and his Brooklyn ERA in the other 17 starts was in the mid 2's.  And he got better as the season progressed - just 4 earned runs in his last 5 outings, spanning 29 innings.

Just 3 HRs allowed in 92 innings - that sure tells you something.  And only 22 walks as compared to 81 Ks.

Just based on what the numbers speak to me, I see no reason why Ginn cannot get up to 150 innings or so in 2022, in AA and AAA, and be ready to join the Mets' rotation in 2023.  Hopefully, the now-rehabbing former high draft pick Matt Allan will heal quickly like Mr. Ginn and be ready to join Ginn in the Mets' rotation by 2024.

Perhaps Ginn debuts sooner than 2023, although that seems a bit unlikely.  But the Mets used a slew of starters in 2021, so you never know when a dire need would warrant perhaps a midseason call up for JT. 

Also, Megill threw just 45 innings above A ball before coming up. Maybe that is in Ginn's future.  

Ginn could throw 60 innings in 2022 by Memorial Day, assuming minor league seasons go back to commencing in April.  

Might that be all he needs? If he is elite, maybe so.

In his case, though, most likely the intent would be this: 

Once called up, he stays up.  Because he ought to be a successful Mets rotation starter.  For years.  

His ceiling seems very high.

Great draft pick gamble by Brodie Volkswagen.  

Credit where credit is due.  BVW really did draft well, if one considers “Impact Players” to be the key grading factor.

JT Ginn is living proof of that.

Like Tanous and BVW were, I am ecstatic we got JT Ginn.  

You, too? A future “top of the rotation guy”, if you ask me.

AND...SOMETIMES SMALL SAMPLE SIZES ARE INDICATIVE:

Brett Baty started out getting on base 13 out of 19 times in his first 4 games in the AFL.  Wow.

Sometimes, small samples can be misleading, but sometimes, perhaps more often than not, a small sample showing an unexpectedly high negative, or positive, rate of some attribute is indicative that the sampled population (past, or in Baty's case, future) will have a significant rate of the same attribute.

In simpler terms, Baty's incredible 13 of 19 on base start in the AFL may well be an indicator that things have suddenly really clicked for him in baseball, and that he is perhaps just as suddenly major league ready.  Time will tell.

Of course, he won't be getting on base 13 of every 19 times throughout his future career.  But he could be getting on base an awful lot, is what it tells me.  From now on.

And, John from Albany, Wilmer Reyes is getting on a ton, too.

In fact, the team that 8 Mets' prospects are assigned to (the Salt River Rafters in Scottsdale) is 4-1, much to the credit of the Mets' 8 (Baty, Carlos Cortes, Wilmer Reyes and Hayden Senger at the bat, and Conner Grey, Garrison Bryant, Colin Holderman, and Brian Metoyer from the mound).  

No HRs, nor HRs allowed, so far.  But the 4 hitters have gotten on base an amazing 28 of 58 times, with 10 runs scored. And the pitchers have gone 8 total innings, and have allowed 7 hits and 2 runs, while going 1-0.  KEEP IT UP, FELLERS.

SCOTTSDALE MADE ME THINK OF AN OLD SPORTS BUT NOT BASEBALL-RELATED STORY ABOUT STEVE SCOTT.

The great U.S. miler from the early 1980s once ran a sub-3:47 mile (not now the world record....a Moroccan subsequently ran a 3:43 mile, which is pretty mind-boggling).  

Scott also set a golf-related world record in 1981: 

He played 18 holes of golf in a world record 29 minutes, 33.05 seconds, while shooting a creditable 92.

Me?  I can't run to the bathroom in 29:33:05.  I did run a 5:08 first mile during a 5 mile race I ran in that same year of 1981, though.  I clocked in on that one in 29:47, or 5:57 a mile.  But a little slower than it took Scott to shoot 18 holes LOL.