 |
A PHOTO FROM BACK WHEN CONFORTO WAS VERY YOUNG |
Guys often have overly successful seasons, and overly poor seasons, too - in the former, hits are miraculously dropping in everywhere, and in the latter, Ozzie Smith seems to be playing every position in the field.
Michael Conforto, several years after the above youthful picture, is up for free agency.
How, oh how, he must wish his free agency happened after 2020.
In that short 2020 season, he crushed the entire majors with a .412 BABIP and put up great numbers (except for his RBIs). Hit .322.
In 2021, his BABIP plunged, and as of September 22, he was hitting just .223, a full 99 points below 2020. He did pick it up a tad towards the end, hitting .269/.360/.444 over his last 30 games with 21 RBIs, but that more or less constituted his hottest streak in 2021 - not so hot, really.
Will the real Michael Conforto please stand up?
One thing is for sure: speed is not his game.
In 748 pro games, he is 18 for 29 in steals. 4 steals in 170 games in 2020 and 2021. 4 career triples.
Moving on:
I thought that a simple way to look at Conforto would be to combine his 2020 and 2021. In 2018 and 2019, he had 638 and 648 plate appearances, respectively.
In 2020 and 2021 thru 9/22, a slightly higher 678 PAs, the equivalent of a full 162 game season without a day off:
21 HRs, 81 RBIs, 85 runs scored, .261/.362/.415.
2018? .243/.350/.448, with 28 HRs and 82 RBIs.
2019? .257/.363/.494 with career highs of 33 HRs and 92 RBIs. I believe he benefited in 2019 from having fellow teammates having strong offensive years, Alonso/ McNeil/ Rosario/ Smith/ Davis all hit well in 2019.
You would think that he would not be in decline at age 28, although one never knows. He likely has had a poor year at least to some degree because his fellow teammates, aside from Pete Alonso, have been collectively terrible offensively this year.
So, should Conforto be signed long term?
Despite his 469 foot bomb on the evening of Sept 29 off the Marlins, I'd say emphatically NO.
A QO, perhaps, if Conforto was convinced he'd have a huge bounce back 2022 and be positioned for a larger long term payday, and settled for a one year QO for that reason.
I think he will have a bounce back season, but some other team will probably offer him 5 years, $100 million, maybe more, and if so, and he ought to take that. That will cover his age 29-33 years, and I could foresee a decline there (see Jay Bruce comp below). I could see two good years, 3 declining years. The Mets simply do not need to be shackled to declining players.
To his credit, he gets on base well. His Ks are also pretty high, at right around one per game, and that also seems to trend upward as players age.
I think, just looking at the next two seasons, he would give the Mets .250/.350/.450, with 25 HRs and 80 RBIs, very close to his career averages. Not terrible. Not great.
And, as Scott Boras would wish to remind me, retaining him for more than 1 season would be long-term EXPENSIVE for a guy who at best is somewhat above average.
Jay Bruce is a reasonable comp. Drafted at almost exactly the same first round slot, he hit well in the two seasons which would coincide age-wise with Conforto's next two seasons, then went into steep decline. Bruce surprisingly stole a lot more bases, but he was not as good as Conforto in getting on base.
But, I think the key point is age-related decline after two seasons. I could see that happening with Conforto, and no doubt he and Boras are aware of that and he will therefore be most likely willing to take the best multi-year deal put out on the table to avoid even going one year closer to that career decline stage by signing a 1 year QO. Moving on:
His career home-and-away splits are almost exactly even. Of course, with fences moved in 5-8 feet, he'd improve in his home hitting results.
May I suggest...MOVE THOSE FENCES IN AGAIN! (Oh, that's right, I suggested that in my article yesterday...to me, bears repeating, I guess).
In his career, it needs to be said, MC Hammer has not been very clutch. This, for a team that is all too often not clutch. A team that needs lots more clutch.
Conforto in his career with 2 outs, with RISP through Sept 22?
Just .224/.370/.377 in 346 plate appearances.
And .213/.316/.385 in 472 so-called "late and close" plate appearances.
So, when you feel frustrated with him, those are the two big reasons why. Those are two key reasons why his career 162 game average is 85 RBIs, not 105 RBIs. (The third reason? Other Mets hitters don't get on and score enough).
Defensively?
Very sure-handed, with few career errors, but the lack of speed makes him an average outfielder.
Me? I'd shop elsewhere and look for young, more clutch players.
I am not saying to completely forget Conforto, but if there are better products in the shopping aisle, buy them and move on.
I am aware that as I write this, if the very suddenly unemployed Yankees sign him, with that totally inviting right field porch, Conforto might jump to .270/.360/.500 with 100 RBIs and 35-40 dingers per year over the next 3 seasons in pinstripes. (The Yanks losing the the Red Sox in just one game really kind of choked me up, how about you?)
I'd be comfortable with a likely-to-rebound Jeff McNeil manning right field in 2022. He might produce less overall than Conforto, but do it much more cheaply, and the saved money could be spent elsewhere - e.g., for pitching.
The 2nd half collapse of the Mets' pitching (3.45 ERA pre-All Star, but 4.50+ post-All Star) and corresponding collapse of their season in the post-All Star timeframe indicates that PITCHING is a market for the Mets to pounce on for 2022.
Spend first, second, and third on PITCHING. As long as there is good pitching to be had. Past JT Ginn the Mets minors does not have much starting pitching to count on - maybe Adam Oller, who knows?
Me? I'd stick on-base specialist Khalil Lee (.274/.451/.500 in AAA) and power-hitting Mark Vientos in the outfield to take some of Conforto's ABs, holding the outfield fort down until 18 year old Alex Ramirez is ready to step in there (some time in 2023(?), and hopefully for a decade to come. The toolsy Ramirez hit well in Low A this season. Given his age and success at that level, I think he could make his Mets debut at age 20. But I am eternally the "prospect optimist."
Mets, From Here to Eternity
ReplyDeleteA few things maybe worth noting.
1. It may behoove the NY Mets brass to plan their 2022 pitching rotation as if both Jake deGrom and Noah Syndergaard could conceivably again have arm issues next season. Sounds awful I do admit, and let's hope it never happens, but this does make serious good sense.
What I mean here is simply this.
The Mets really, really do need one more top-end starter (of serious worth, record, and merit) to be added into the 2022 rotation's starting five mix. That pitcher is not here right now anywhere, and I don't care what anyone else thinks on this. The 4 and 5 slots very easily could see pitchers Taijuan Walker and Tyler Megill there, who have both tasted some success in 2021. Maybe David Peterson enters this picture too. Not certain.
Then, the Mets should have planned out a sixth and seventh starter for insurance purposes, in the event that Jake and/or Noah are injured again next season. Maybe one of these pitchers could be Carlos Carrasco or David Peterson. But there are others here as well, mostly younger arms.
To me, this absolutely should be player personnel priority NUMBER ONE. If you can think of anything more important, let me know what that is and good-luck trying.
Avid 35 year old fading starters please. Let other teams take that gamble because it does not seem to always workout so well I have seen.
The Mets will need someone good already, and getting better as well. (CWS) lefty starter Carlos Rodon is a good example here I think, although he too has experienced some arm tiredness as of late and why would Chicago let him go is a good question to ask. A lefty like Rodon would be great since really the only other lefty starter here now is the yet unproven David Peterson, whom I still believe in BTW.
2. Nowadays, a real potential problem with really all of pro sports is acquiring players that have achieved near superstar level, but are say age 31 or even older?
As time has gone on, I have noticed what appears to be a type of human emotion (on the part of some players) who have already achieved financially and have peaked skill wise, a kind of mild decline in their personal desire and performance. Normal human psychology. Their desire and hunger to achieve may not be as vital a thing as perhaps it once was earlier on when they were trying then to prove themselves and make it bigtime.
They have become in their own minds...the very best that they can be already. So what more is there to prove really. It becomes validated with this new five year contract for $200,000,000, in their minds. They go to their new team, only to basically fall asleep and make excuses for it. Be very leery of this condition because it is out there and contagious these days, and we have all seen this sort of thing.
I tend to prefer players who are still trying to prove themselves, and may have tasted "some success" already. But guys who still are driven and hungry. Unfortunately, not everyone is this way.
BTW: Kevin Plawecki is now has a .500 BA for Boston who beat the NYY last night for their wild card victory.
IMO
ReplyDeleteConforto's September Stas show he still is on of top FA outfielders in this off season.
This will give agent the fuel to get him 9 figure deal.
Tom: I agree that the Mets pitching situation is precarious and their #1 concern, but let's not completely forget Matt Allen as a top prospect; before requiring Tommy John surgery in May, he was considered they're #1 pitching prospect. Not that he's a candidate for the majors in 2022, but maybe he'll beat the recent trend and actually return to form and pitch in the minor's in 2022, making the majors by 2024? We can only hope.
ReplyDeleteGood points on avoiding aging players, unless they’ve figured out how to thrive at lower velocity. Also, Plawecki is .300 + as A Red Sx, but was something like 3 of 40 catching base stealers this year.
ReplyDeleteJon, I am concerned with Allan, as some guys like Thor, Matz, and Zack took a long time to recover and 100% recovery is often not quite achieved.
ReplyDeleteMack, I think so…and it is why we should QO Conforto and pass. I’d use cheaper McNeil and/or Smith and spend elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteI would offer Conforto the QO because I believe he will decline it... SO I want the draft pick, but I think this team needs change and where is change going to occur. so Conforto can go. I believe he will be successful but we need a face lift and he is an easy walk away.
ReplyDeleteIf we could some how dump Lindor then I would be ok with keeping Conforto to prove it contract. but since I don think that will happen Conforto can go...
Eddie? Lindor - we broke it, we own t.
ReplyDeleteI agree on Conforto QO.
I watched jus a little of the Red Sox last night. To me, their hitters look TOUGHER.
I don't know how many mega deals Mets can get themselves into here. I love Conforto but feel like writing is on the wall to choose Báez over him in a big deal unless Conforto takes QO.
ReplyDeleteOne Last Point
ReplyDeleteMark Vientos and JD Davis
Here's how I see it.
Mark Vientos is a very young (21 years old) power hitter who hits for average, and had 25 homeruns in 2021 combined. He can hit with power to all fields easily and had a .281 BA.
JD Davis is a 28 year old third baseman, left fielder, and first baseman who hit 22 homeruns in 2019, batted .307, an OBP of .369, and a SG of .527. He hit .285 in 2021 with a torn tendon in his left hand. He's all grin and grit.
A lot of people may have other thoughts, which is fine, but I would like one of the above two players on third base, and the other starting left field.
And if say Pete Alonso were to get hurt (eek), either one of the above could play at first base as well.
Having both starting is a solid idea. Then you have five homerun hitters in your lineup everyday, Brandon Nimmo the leadoff man in center, and Khalil Lee in right. They can hit homers too!
But woe, what if Francisco Alavares is ready to handle the duties behind the dish starting as well out of ST. Holy Cow!
Good thoughts indeed.
Who might I prefer for the NY Mets 2021 Managerial opening?
ReplyDeleteMaybe either one of two ex-Mets. Joe McEwing or David Cone. We have had tons of managers who never put on the orange and blue, and there has not been a WS ring here in like what 37 years?
Keep it in-house perhaps?
What do you all think?
For some reason, I liked Carlos Beltran as a NY Met player, but the rest of possible choices being bantered about lately do not excite me.
The NY Mets management needs to seriously find the best people for these roles as manager and GM. It starts right here with them.
ReplyDelete#1 need is a big time hitter to team with Alonso. Castellanos, Schawber,Bryant would be the tier one choices. Duvall,Escobar would be second tier. How about McCutchon if all else fails, good power, a pro. Get a bat and hope Lindor bounces back and that they sign Baez.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, I cannot imagine Lindor not bouncing back. Hopefully, Baez stays. McCutcheon getting old, but 1 year?
ReplyDeleteOther guys? No personal preference. Whoever wants to help the Mets win and is capable of doing exactly that.
Mackade:
ReplyDeleteHere's why a smart team probably let's RF Michael Conforto leave.
I know everyone pretty much loves Michael Conforto, but sometimes you have to bite the bullet and put the overall team ahead of just one player. Michael's highest batting average in a full season's schedule was .279. Yes, he has hit his share of homeruns, certainly, but his overall career BA has been relatively lower than star level outfielders. Michael is age 29 at the start of the 2022 season. He and his agent will probably be asking for a lot of money just like every other upper second tier level player out there. But the problem is this, they are not a true level one star players. So a team is sucked into paying star level player money for a .255 career BA outfielder like Michael Conforto, despite his OBP being a healthier .356 career wise. To you, is a .255 BA star level?
The kicker here is actually Michael's overall health.
His numbers dropped after catching Covid19 in 2021. Some people are what is called long termers with this illness, although upon observation I don't think Michael is a long termer. But still in all, his play declined and he never really recovered his old self except towards the very end of the season with that monster homerun. But will he be that guy again from here on out? A gamble.
So with Khalil Lee and other new kid Mets possible outfielders coming along in 2022, it is probably a common sense move to not re-sign Michael Conforto to a new contract, but rather go with an outfield of something like LF JDD, Vientos, or Squirrel, CF Nimmo RF Lee, or Mauricio even. With these six players, there is youthfulness, HR power, and better batting averages potentially. See wher I am coming from.
Would a NY Mets signing of Michael Conforto surprise me?
A: No. Because too often this team tries to pacify its fan base at the price of not making it to the playoffs. I have seen this way too many times here and I just don't see common sense or much logic to their player moves of late.
i.e. The 2020 part season was to me a "possible start" to a new Mets kind of team allowed to stay intact and not changed every off season. It was basically built from within, the way only the very best organizations can do. It showed (I felt) promise in 2020. Sure, it was a weird Covid19 season all around for everyone, but the young infield had solidified and they were playing with a great deal of excitement and energy I had noticed. It was not a terrific part season won/lost but there were good signs (I think) of things to come.
The new owner comes in and basically makes (to my eyes) the same bad moves as the Wilpons would have done breaking up this younger infield at short and then second base. Adding in two well known players with star status that I felt actually changed the dynamic of the entire team from an up and coming team to something else. Energizer rabbit (Amed Rosario) was moved to Cleveland and batted for a .050 point higher average than his replacement while compiling the same exact fielding percentage (.997) as the star brought in who was supposed to solidify the infield but batted not for average. Beyond the added homeruns, short and second base combined for a pretty paltry batting average that was not acceptable to most fans. And little defense was picked up by this move, that I could see.
So what's the off season all about, Alfie?
ReplyDelete1. One more top-end really good starter who is still youthful, and possesses some success record wise at the MLB level. This will be the guy that picks up the mantle should Jake and/or Noah go down to injury again in 2022. This has to be a solid starter who also possesses a cannot lose mindset. A leader type. The 1 is Jake, the 3 ideally is Noah to separate Jake and Noah, the 4 could be Taijuan Walker, and the five slot Tyler Megill as of right now. This could change however. There are other arms to try out too, and going to a six-man rotation would not kill this team's chances and may prolong starters staying on field.
2. Get the outfield straightened out by the end of ST 2022. Every option (to me) is already here player personnel wise. You can add in the old farts people have suggested here, but to me the options are here with new guys like Lee and Magnum maybe getting a shot.
3. The catcher position needs (badly) a true starting catcher added in. Pick between Nido or McCann for the backup role, no problem. You don't need both really. Then get Francisco Alvares some experience in Winter Ball some. See how he handles things there. If not convincing there, then began your search immediately for a new starting catcher. A true starting one with defense and batting capability.
4. Get the bullpen sorted out role wise. Add in the new faces where applicable. See how it all meshes together.
I can see the Michael Conforto situation playing out like the Josh Donaldson or Marcell Ozuna initial free agency attempts did. They both went all off season with signing a contract and then signed one year contracts near the Q.O. value and did it all again the next year. I am not saying that Conforto will sign an $18M 1 year deal with Atlanta, but he could still be available for relatively small money when spring training breaks. Let's see what the outfield looks like and perhaps his 'qualifying offer' will still stand, without getting into big long-term money.
ReplyDeleteBTW. both of the aforementioned guys had big years to earn a good size follow-on contract, but that was probably the Atlanta magic. They seem to turn a lot of players into gold.