Don't sign an aging Rick Porcello type and expect success.
I'll get right to the point on the above title.
Do NOT sign veterans who have had success but are starting to slip.
Would you buy a nice older car where the transmission is starting to slip? Didn't think so. Let me continue:
Rick Porcello in 2020: 1-7, and now out of baseball. The fact that he won a Cy Young did not help.
Michael Wacha in 2020: 1-4, and now 3-5 this year with the Cards with a high ERA. His prior career success has not given him a pass.
Jake Arrieta in 2021: sure, he won a prior Cy Young award, too, but that has not prevented him from having what is most likely a career ending 5-14, 7.39 ERA season this year.
On the other hand, 3 younger former Mets (Zack, Matz, and Flexen) are a combined 39-22. Which seems to indicate one thing: younger guys bounce back because they are not past their primes, so they are young enough that they can in fact bounce back. Follow the bouncing ball here.
They got lucky with ageless Bartolo Colon, and also so far did OK with 40+ Rich Hill. But it is a fool's game to bet that an old-timer will be successful on a team absolutely intent on making the 2022 playoffs. On a team NOT expecting to make the playoffs in 1964, Warren Spahn went 4-12 at age 44. He was 13-29 at ages 43-44, but prior to that was 350-214.
So, for the Mets? Go younger, or go home early.
Me? Give me the Young and the Restless any time.
Give me a Megill, rather than an Over-The-Hill.
Give me a Stroman, not an old man.
Give me an Oller instead of someone older.
Etc, etc.
PLAYOFF NOTABLES:
Freddy Friggin' Freeman jolts Josh Hader and the Brewers out of the playoffs. Freddy is truly a great hitter - Hader was a career .124 pitcher against lefties. Freddy took him deep and it wasn't some meaningless HR - it decided that series. Funny that Hader picked that particular time to do his Edwin Diaz imitation.
I say that facetiously. SO many people rag on Edwin Diaz - but did you see who got walloped in the Astros' clincher against the White Sox? The great Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendricks combined to give up 4 runs in the 8th and 9th inning against the lethal Astros offense. Lethal hitters are not automatic outs for top relievers.
Everyone should keep in mind one key factor about Diaz: he never gets to pitch against the patsy Mets. Most nights, he faces REAL hitters.
P.S. Youth Must Be Served
In the Arizona Fall League opener, those two prospects that most Mets fans are conditioned into thinking are just not ready, did something to challenge that notion.
Namely, Brett Baty got on base all 5 times up, and Carlos Cortes got on base 4 out of 5 times. Do the math, that’s 9 out of 10 times on base.
But no, of course, they are not ready. It takes significant time for anyone to join an anemic Mets offensive squad. They’re awfully young. Aren’t they?
If Baty keeps this up and hits at the same pace in ST..
ReplyDeleteThere is an outside chance of he could see Queens in 2022
Is Carlos Cortes worth protecting in Rule 5? Vientos and Mauricio are locks, but I haven’t done an analysis yet to see how much room there is.
ReplyDeleteYes, because if nothing else, he has better trade value than letting him go.
DeleteYes it's like TC is still making decisions like start no player under 30 dam it!
ReplyDeleteOK guys what would you give up for Sterns? I hope not Alvarez as was mentioned on SNY. Please stop the insanity.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of rule 5 draft. I think the Mets have a lot to protect in this years draft. Will they have room? If not do they look to trade some of these players. For an example Senger, Nick Meyer, Oller, josh Walker, Colin Holderman, Brian Metoyer, Wilmer Reyes, Jose Peroza, Butto, LaGrange, Gilliam, Winans, and Mazeika.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your thinking on this issue?
Me?
DeleteProtect Oller and Butto
Gus, I have not evaluated the 40 man either, but you have to have Cortes on it. Or trade him. He hit like mad until a few injuries and Covid slowed him down. He needs to give up righty switch hitting. He hits great from the left side.
ReplyDeleteTrade Alvarez to get Sterns? Egads!
ReplyDeleteRaw, out of your list, I'd protect Senger or Meyer; Oller: maybe Walker; maybe Metoyer, although he probably is not ready for 2022. Maybe Butto, but he was HR prone in 2021. Peroza is too far away. Others? Not special enough.
ReplyDeleteWith Mauricio, Vientos, Cortes, Oller, Senger, and let’s say either Butto or Josh Walker that is 6 players you need to add. That is a lot of young players you would need to add. That is a lot, which means we need to remove a lot of players off the list as of now and we might not have much room to add free agents. It is going to be an interesting off season. I hope we sign a POBO soon so he can begin to work on these issues ASAP.
ReplyDeleteI dont know the rules but can we not protect Cano? who in their right mind would take him?
ReplyDeleteso wouldnt that be a open spot?
Also TOM, you made a great point about DIAZ and Hader.
ReplyDeletewe all lived in the Rivera era so we all expect that but really there is no true shut down closers in MLB.
I hate to admit that but Diaz is as good or as bad as everyone else.
But i would still trade him.
Wonderful points about grabbing older pitchers based on their past success. The Mets have actually done well finding folks within their organization that can pitch, but just don't have the patience to hang on to them. The Flexen, Sewald, Wheeler, Matz examples this year follow a long history of good pitching leaving the team just before they became good pitching. Don't make the same mistake with those coming up, like Peterson, Megill, Oller, etc... - hang with 'em even after a "learning" year.
ReplyDeleteEddie I agree he's done so much damage here he'll never be accepted and as far as I'm concerned BVW should be investigated for his "big trade" of Cano/Diaz because how do you trade for your OWN client and stick us with an aging overpriced 2nd baseman and granted a top reliever but geez can we say conflict of interest and no one called him on it.
ReplyDeleteGary, don’t forget Jeff Wilpon approved the trade when he came back from his European vacation.
ReplyDeleteRaw, it is alot of players which is why I cut Cano now and save the roster space. I am not willing to gamble on a decent young player that will save me signing a free agent for seven years in order to keep an aging player that has been out of the game for a year.
The Mets have 28 signed players for next year according to sportrac, including Pillar’s option, Lucchesi, Martinez, Robert Stock, Williams, Lee, Gsellman, and Peraza. There’s plenty of room to add Thor, Conforto, 6 minor leaguers, and some free agents.
ReplyDeleteHowever, they only have $27MM of room to add before getting on the naughty list…
ReplyDelete