Morning.
I have to assume you read the Chilli Davis yesterday in the NYP where he attacked the rigid approach last season with the lineups.
Analytics are not going away and I would think that the Mets need a manager that understands them, but also is old school enough to mix in his knowledge of the game.
Agree?
Disagree?
Suggestions for the 2022 manager?
Analytics are a background tool to see patterns, but they should not ever be a 100% indicator of complete accuracy about what will happen. They reflect what has happened. We need someone who can embrace analytics as a support tool to HELP make decisions but not to dictate them.
ReplyDeleteAs far as a manager goes, I'm leaning more towards someone more experienced than we had with Callaway and Rojas, but experience alone isn't enough. Terry Collins was experienced but not suited to the role he was in. I drew the parallel to him being the managerial Sandy Alderson.
For a prospective name, I'd look long and hard at the ex-Cardinals Mike Shildt. If the reasoning for his termination -- the refusal to go unwaveringly by the analytics is true -- then he shot to the top of my list. He has a 252-199 managerial record, a major league Manager of the Year trophy and has 2 years as a coach before his 4 years as a manager.
Analytics are supposed to help, not hurt.
ReplyDeleteHow about Chili Davis as manager?
NO.
DeleteInterviewing a former employee who was terminated is only going to end one way and the lazy reporter who put this "story" out there knew it and had an agenda. If Chili was so effective, why was he holding back before his termination? Or better yet, why was he let go from his previous jobs?
ReplyDeleteAs a quick side note, I am disappointed with the hate and vitriol being aimed as Sandy. Sure, I am not in love with some of his moves and the team isn't where I hoped it would be. But, he is also a military veteran and a cancer survivor, among other things. He has always handled himself in a professional manner, despite the hellacious and agenda driven NY media (see above). Jared Porter and Zack Scott were supposed to lead this team and Sandy was moving to the business side of things (after coming back to help Steve Cohen's purchase go through). We all know what happened with the "dubious duo" and Sandy has had to stay on longer then he wanted and to do a job he wasn't initially asked to do.
Amazingly, Sandy also gets a heaping pile of blame for everything negative that takes place, regardless of his responsibility. Porter was a jackass in a former life (Theo's Cubs) and he was hired by two organizations after that (Arizona and NY), so the lack of a background check is a weak angle.....or at least blaming it all on Sandy is short sighted, at best. Zack's extremely poor decision to drive under the influence was his and his alone. In both cases, the listed employees were separated from employment with the Mets.....what more should be done? But, then again, the sorry a$# media never misses an opportunity to regurgitate old news to further an agenda.
OK, so I am done ranting.....sorry about that.
As far as your question, Mack......that "old school versus analytics" tug of war seems to be going on in every organization, to varying degrees. I am of the thought that you need both to move forward successfully. I have never worked for Sandy, so I cannot say, but it does seem that he is more old school.
If they can find a candidate to actually interview (and please NY media, stop with the "who turned down the Mets" articles), I hope that the new hire(s) incorporate both viewpoints. I am sure Steve Cohen is heavily involved in analytics with his investment firm, so he can see the value of them.
I still like Brian Sabean for POBO (old school) and a young GM (analytics) learning beneath his guidance. Perhaps the GM can be an underling from a successful organization?
The Mets are down to Wally Backman (manager), Terry Collins (bench, personal phycologist to Backman), Omar Minaya GM. HAHA
ReplyDeleteHey Viper,
ReplyDeleteI'd sign up for that in a second. This way Sandy can actually do the job he's here to do....watch over the organization.
I'm sure you're probably kidding but this sounds good to me.
I wouldn't mind that combo, either, bit Backman is unhirable and Collins would send Reese into a coma or worse. His severe case of Terryphoboia is disabling enough while Terry isn't hete, but let's not make ot dramatically worse. 😒
ReplyDeleteMack as POBO; Gus as GM; Fonzie as manager
ReplyDeleteI declined to interview.
DeleteThanks for the vote of confidence Tom. I accept! How’s that for different? Oh wait, Brian Sabean accepted the support too, look where it got him.
ReplyDeleteI agree completely with what Reese said at the top, word for word.
I don't have a problem with analytics and data information as a concept to assist in decision making.
ReplyDeleteI do have a problem when it becomes paralysis by analysis, which to the untrained eye from afar, the Mets appear to suffer from.
I also have a problem if anybody that is not wearing a baseball uniform (save Connie Mack) is putting together daily line-ups and dictating decisions about who plays on any given day.
Call me old school, or just too simple, but the job of the POBO should be to set the strategy for what they want the team to look like, how to play (power guys vs. speed guys, etc), how to set up the park (bring the fences in, or give the pitchers the advantage and build the offense to play to the bigger field. . ).
Also included is to set the financial guidelines for the team payroll.
The job of the general manager is to go find the players that fit the strategic and financial model of the organization, through free agency, trades, or working within the organization to determine which young players can help at what point in time.
The job of the field manager is to put the best nine guys that the GM has gotten for him on the field on a daily basis and use all the available resources to assist the entire 26 man roster to get the best results possible. The bottom line is wins. To get wins, the dual bottom line is for the offense to score more runs than the pitching and defense allows. Understand how this data warehouse works and what it is in that particular tool-bag that can help each decision along the way. That data analytics tool-bag is not, however, the only tool-bag at his disposal. He also has to understand the human and psychological aspects of the players he managers. Understand if a guy is on a hot streak and is seeing the ball well, it is probably not time to give him a night off, even if he is only 3 for 22 against the night's opposing pitcher. Play the gut, but put put all the ingredients into the recipe to get the best product.
Lastly, I'd love to see my manager realize that if they need a to score a guy on second base in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth, they don't need a two run homerun to do it.
Mike Freire said...
ReplyDelete“As a quick side note, I am disappointed with the hate and vitriol being aimed as Sandy. Sure, I am not in love with some of his moves and the team isn't where I hoped it would be. But, he is also a military veteran and a cancer survivor, among other things. He has always handled himself in a professional manner, despite the hellacious and agenda driven NY media (see above). Jared Porter and Zack Scott were supposed to lead this team and Sandy was moving to the business side of things (after coming back to help Steve Cohen's purchase go through). We all know what happened with the "dubious duo" and Sandy has had to stay on longer then he wanted and to do a job he wasn't initially asked to do.
Amazingly, Sandy also gets a heaping pile of blame for everything negative that takes place, regardless of his responsibility. Porter was a jackass in a former life (Theo's Cubs) and he was hired by two organizations after that (Arizona and NY), so the lack of a background check is a weak angle.....or at least blaming it all on Sandy is short sighted, at best. Zack's extremely poor decision to drive under the influence was his and his alone. In both cases, the listed employees were separated from employment with the Mets.....what more should be done? But, then again, the sorry a$# media never misses an opportunity to regurgitate old news to further an agenda.”
Well said, Mike
I would also like to point out that on paper,SA built a very good team in 2021 and had a fabulous bench that kept them in 1st place for over 100 days. But the vast multitude of injuries (particularly to deGrom) and the horrendous lack of production from many hitters, left them with no chance. SA and the FO who built that team should not be having self-doubts in their ability to retool the roster into a contending team for next season. It’s their calls to make...and make timely and decisively.
I can't disagree with the idea that the 2021 team, on paper, was an encouraging collection of players that gave a lot of us hope for the season, particuluarly after the big offensive seasons that many of the players had in 2020.
ReplyDeleteI also don't like to play the blame game very much. If it is broke, fix it and move on.
BUT ... at some time, the buck needs to stop somewhere. I don't know if we, as the fans, should know the details behind the lack of transparency, but it seems if Porter 'was a jackass in a former life', that the hiring and vetting process was not good. I put that on Alderson as the only guy in charge to do a better job in that regard.
And why did the offense go so flat in 2021 after the 2020 promise? I don't think the entire lineup forgot how to hit. It seems there is a re-direction in the system to drive analytics as the primary driver of too many decisions and the hitters did not immediately benefit from this strategy. Where was this driven from? I think the buck stops with this as well with Alderson. Somebody has to be setting strategy for the actions of this team, and the results have not been there since he took the reins.
I blame the Manager and his (3) hitting coaches for not getting the hitters
ReplyDeleteon track.
I agree with Reese that statistical data reveals patterns but can be only laughingly applied to specific circumstance. A lifetime .333 hitter has no better chance of getting a hit when 0/2 in the 8th than if 1/2.
ReplyDelete"A game of inches" is a grossly misleading statement; CHESS is a game of inches. Baseball is a game of millimeters & milliseconds (e.g. in bat/ball contact), beyond precise human control & thereby an essentially random process in a statistical envelope.
Reese- totally agreed!!! As much as I have learned to enjoy most analytics, what I've never understood is why people feel the need to disprove things like "heart" and "clutch performers" and "Grit" - I understand that if a bunt ends up in more failure than success, don't bunt. If a starting pitcher is always getting hit hard the third time through the order, don't let him go that far. But to ONLY focus on these advanced/new stats is in my opinion a huge failure. A great manager today indeed needs to embrace analytics, how to communicate them to the "humans" that he's responsible for in a manner that's easy to digest, absorb and implement, and still needs to maintain the abilities to both care for these humans as men while also utilizing his baseball instincts to make decisions that can only be made from experience. So yes, the next manager would be best-served, for his success, the team's success, and his length of employment, to be able to utilize analytics, embrace them as they're not going anywhere, but also maintain an ability to go "off-book" when necessary and have the cajones to defend his actions to his higher-ups when/if the time comes. Let's hope our next manager is someone like a Bruce Bochy or a Bob Melvin-type who can do all of the above.
ReplyDeleteOn another note- I always liked Chili, but did NOT love his torching of the organization after-the-fact.