Reese Kaplan -- A Half Dozen Top Free Agent Pitcher Options

To hear a great many Mets fans grousing about what the team needs to do to improve the pitching, you hear a common thread.  "Hey!  There are some great free agents available this year.  Cohen's got the money to spend.  F*** the salary cap!  Just go for it."

Of course, you could take that same sentiment and apply it to infielders, catchers and outfielders, too.  It's the spend-your-way-to-success formula that people think is a sure thing.  (May I introduce Francisco Lindor to you, folks...)

If you take a look at the top tier of free agent starting pitchers, you are indeed looking at some truly interesting folks and some real eye popping names.  The question is whether or not any of them would be appropriate investments for the Mets.

Decent Pitchers in Free Agency

Current lefty Cy Young Award contender Robbie Ray is going to generate a lot of the "Get him!" demands from Mets fans, but look a little deeper at his record and it would seem you'd be overpaying for one of only two notable seasons in his eight year career.  There's no taking away from what he accomplished in 2021 with a 13-7 record, a 2.84 ERA and a WHIP just a tick over 1.00.  He struck out 248 people and owned a 4.77 strikeout to walk ratio.  However, if you look more closely at his career he averages 11-10 and 4.00 with a 30% higher WHIP.  He'll get big money for sure, but it may not be worth banking on a guy who 75% of the time was not a top notch talent.  He got $8 million for this past season's work and surely will be seeking to double that number or more.  I'd say no.  

Kevin Gausman also is hot on many folks' radars but his career is scarily similar to Robbie Ray.  He's a year older and has bounced around between Baltimore, Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Francisco.  This past season he was on top of his game with a 14-6 record, a 2.81 ERA, a WHIP slightly north of 1.000 and a 4.54 strikeout to walk ratio (which earned him an All Star berth).  However, he's only ever had one other truly notable half-season after a mid-year stint on the Braves.  For his career he's averaging a 10-11 record, a 4.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.282.  That's not bad for back-of-the-rotation stuff but he's going to be looking for front of the rotation money.  He earned $18.9 million this past season for the Giants and will want a bump and a long term deal.  For what he's produced in his career I'd look elsewhere.  

During the Sandy Alderson regime the Mets have been enamored with reunions and one is most definitely available with Steve Matz becoming a free agent.  He had a stronger start than finish for the Blue Jays this year, but overall his numbers were pretty good.  He went 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA.  Those numbers would be 3rd through 5th starter appropriate, but remember that he's had issues with both capability and health throughout his career.  The 30 year old averages an 11-12 record with a 4.24 ERA.  This past year he earned $5.2 million and will be looking to at least double that number.  I'd pass.  

Eye Popping Pitchers in Free Agency

There's a guy available in free agency this year who for his career has a better ERA than Jacob deGrom's 2.50.  Clayton Kershaw is surely on a Cooperstown path and at age 33 he's likely got 3-5 good years left in him.  He has had issues with health over the past few seasons and he's coming off a $31 million salary.  Despite the reservations about his health, his age and track record of 8 All Star appearances, 3 Cy Young Awards and an MVP will pretty much guarantee not only will he match this salary but might even exceed it.  There's a lot of risk here and the duration required doesn't strike me as a solid business investment despite the otherworldly quality.

Following not far behind is former Diamondback, Tiger, National and Dodger, Max Scherzer.  He too sports amazing stats for his career, including 8 All Star appearances and 3 Cy Young Awards.  For his career he's got a 3.16 ERA which reflects his long ago Arizona and Detroit days.  Since then he's been 99-47 with a 2.75 ERA and a WHIP under 1.000.  He earned $34.5 million last year and was worth every penny.  Going into his age 37 season with good health and coming off a 15-4 record with a 2.49 ERA he's going to command probably a 3-year deal worth $100 million.  I'd be more inclined to say yes here than I would on the sore-armed Kershaw.  

The third stellar pitcher available to the highest bidder is Justin Verlander.  He's spent his long career with Detroit and Houston while sporting a glowing 226-129 record with a 3.33 ERA.  He's also an 8-time All Star with two Cy Young Awards, an MVP and a Rookie of the Year on his mantle.  He's really not pitched since 2020 except for a single start in 2020 and right now represents an injury risk coming into his age 39 season after missing most of 2020 and all of 2021 due to Tommy John Surgery.  In his last season he was paid $33 million but this time around I would think he's due for a significant drop in pay since no one knows what he is capable of doing and whether he'll even be ready for opening day.  Here it would be interesting to propose a significantly discounted paycheck of say $15 million with a games-played or innings-pitched incentive that could boost it by as much as $7.5 million.  This kind of gamble might be worth taking as it would likely be a bridge-the-gap one year deal.