When the Wilpon family made the odd, curious and head scratching choice to make super agent Brodie Van Wagenen the new General Manager of the Mets, there were no fans who greeted the news of the hiring with fanfare. There wasn't outright hostility, but there was a lot of pondering about who might have been better and why Jeff Wilpon's golf buddy was suddenly the best candidate available.
His brief tenure in charge of the Mets was fraught with a great many questionable decisions. The first one that comes to mind for most fans was the trade that brought them known PED abuser Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz. It was pretty clear from the beginning that the low cost of salary for what Diaz would deliver was anchored by the long term and expensive contract for Cano. If you wanted the young stud you had to take the older former stud and his paycheck.
Bruce was being paid $14 million per season for two more years, so off the bat there was $28 million in salary relief. His offensive production fell off with the combined 2019 year with Seattle and Philadelphia and then went off the rails completely in 2020. Moving that paycheck for what you received seemed to be a bit of good news.
Anthony Swarzak was one of many injury-prone relievers that the Mets seemed to like to stockpile. He was flat out awful for the Mets in his one year in New York. His $5.5 million salary resulted in a 6.15 ERA over 29 games in which he allowed almost 1.6 baserunners per inning pitched while walking almost half as many as he struck out. Seattle inherited his $8.5 million salary for 2019 and like Bruce, they tired of him and shipped him off to the Braves to finish the year. He was better than he was in 2018 at Citifield but he was not good at all. Count that as a win in excising questionable skills and salary obligation from the roster.
Finally, there was Gerson Bautista. After going 0-1 over 5 games for the Mets with an ERA of 12.45, he wasn't much better crossing the country. He made it to 8 games for the Mariners before being dispatched back to the minors where he's resided ever since, moving over to the Giants organization. He's still just 26 so some improvement is possible but highly unlikely. There's no real salary to talk about here as he was at bare minimum.
The real quandary most folks had with this trade were the pair of minor leaguers Van Wagenen had to include to sweeten the deal. Pitcher Justin Dunn was regarded as one of the future Mets stars. His minor league numbers showed some great potential and decent control. During his 2019 minor league season with the Mariners he went 9-5 over 25 starts with a 3.55 ERA and he was showing a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Unfortunately, upon ascending to the majors he didn't replicate that AA success, thus far having started 25 games over a three year period with a 5-4 record and a fairly respectable 3.94 ERA. However, the control that was so good in the minors deserted him in the majors where he was up to at one point walking 6 batters per 9 IP. He's also 26 years old so improvement is possible but the prospect ship may have sailed.
Now Jarred Kelenic became the lynchpin of fan hostility as he soared through the Mariners minor leagues with aplomb. In 2019 while Edwin Diaz was forgetting how to throw a baseball effectively and Robinson Cano did not appear to be under the influence of PEDs (and the numbers paled as a result) you had Kelenic hitting .291 over three levels with a total of 23 HRs and driving in 68 while tacking on 20 SBs. Wow, this sure looked like a major brain fart by Van Wagenen.
However, when making his rookie debut in the American League he appeared overmatched. He appeared in 93 games at the major league level during which he did indeed hit 14 HRs and drove in 43. His baserunning dipped to just another 6 SBs, but the real worry was his batting average. He ended the season sub-Mendoza with an ugly .181. Now considering he was just age 21 he certainly has time to improve and grow into his potential, but that performance should have taken a bit of heat off of the man who traded him.
That brings us back to Robinson Cano whose very presence on the roster is sure enough to ignite fireworks among any cluster of Mets fans. After his poor debut in 2019 when he only hit .256 with 13 HRs and 39 RBIs, he came to life in 2020 with a .316 average to accompany 10 HRs and 30 RBIs in just 176 ABs. That's a rate that would have brought him to career norm 30 HRs and 90 RBIs had that season run its full 162 game course.
Of course, we all know what happened next. In the off season he was tested positive for another use of PEDs and was forced to sit out the entire 2021 season. Now everyone wonders if the gaudy numbers were Robinson Cano at his best or the PED doing it's job. Either way, the Mets are saddled with him for 2 more years at $20 million per season out of pocket, but the suspension saved them $20 million in salary last year which Cano forfeited due to his PED usage.
To hear some folks tell it, when the new CBA brings the DH to the National League, the Mets will have a ready role for Cano which is less stressful to his aging body than would be playing the field every day. What numbers they could expect is at best a wild guess because you know he's under the microscope for possible use of banned substances.
Many are advocating cutting him loose to send the message to fans and the rest of baseball that unethical behavior won't be tolerated in the "new" New York Mets ballclub. However, releasing him may be good for public relations but the accountants will chastise the front office because you're still obligated to pay the $40 million he's owed for 2022 and 2023.
Others are saying to trade him to another team with a similar troubled contract both to send the same message as above and hopefully recoup some of the payroll investment by having a newcomer assume a role on the club. A good example would be the Dodgers' Trevor Bauer who is nobody's first choice, but he's owed $45 million for the 2022 season. That's almost an even swap but you are in effect going from an ethical issue to a criminal one. Still, the Mets need another starting pitcher and the Dodgers likely would be happy to correct the contractual mistake they made. While I don't think such a deal is likely to happen, that's an example of a troubled player for a troubled player kind of deal that could be sought out.
Finally, the most likely scenario is that they keep him and play him. Again, if you get vintage Cano numbers, no one will boo him at the stadium nor complain to the media. If you get 2019 New York Mets numbers, then you'd better start buying protective gear in bulk because it will be open season on the man.
Interestingly, if you do get the Cano who played for the Yankees and Mariners while Edwin Diaz continues to perform well, then perhaps we were all a bit too harsh on Van Wagenen for this deal since no one has exactly set the world afire for Seattle.
I judge trades on resulted.
ReplyDeleteSo far, advantage Mets
Many multi-year scenarios are complex. For instance, is Lindor's 10 year contract a mistake or not? We don't know yet.
ReplyDeleteIf Cano bounces back, and Diaz is a top 4 MLB closer in 2022, hard to say it was a bad trade. If Kelenic and Dunn regroup, and Cano fades and Diaz falters, the fulcrum will tip the other way.
All I can say is this: I love Edwin Diaz, even if he is sometimes frustrating. He's more than O-KKKKK with me.
Very interesting points, Reese. It certainly raises questions about the trade that the bashers won't like.
ReplyDeleteI caught an article yesterday from the Seattle media after this had already been written and scheduled in which they said maybe they need to try converting Dunn from starter to reliever since he's failing as a starter. They also ventured the cut-him-loose argument but felt his value is so diminished that they wouldn't get much of anything in return. So apparently their last hope is Kelenic.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with hindsight and saying advantage Mets because the process was terrible. By examining what we know - have heard - Cano had a no trade clause and only agreed to going to New York. Too, the Phillies wanted Diaz badly, but were taking Segura’s contract since Cano wasn’t happening there. Now Segura was a $14.8MM per year tab while Cano after the Coupons got a $3.75MM coupon, was worth $20.25MM. Brodie wanted Diaz so badly that he believed that DiPoto would send Diaz to Philly with Segura and keep Cano anyway, thus giving the Phillies an advantage in the division and keeping the Mets bullpen crappy.
ReplyDeleteNow, there are two factors in play: 1. Craig Kimbrell was available as a free agent and wasn’t costing you anything in talent. 2. The Mariners were still able to offload Segura’s full salary even without Diaz being attached, which they wouldn’t be able to discard both if Cano doesn’t go to the Mets. But the math of Swarzak and Bruce costing $20MM plus Kimbrell’s $16MM is more than Cano’s $20.25MM and Diaz’ $1MM. So, in Wilponese, the Mets gained $15MM by making the trade. Now, $15MM is $15MM, but unless the money is in your pocket, you can’t say the Mets won this trade.
This trade would reek of Jeff Baagwell for Larry Anderson, except that Anderson was worse than Diaz so, the Astros are still the all-time dummies. The Mets are merely, second.
I hated it at the time and maybe I'll be proven wrong but the whole BVW signing was just so "Wilpon". Save a few bucks with BVW instead of hiring a real GM and then his signature move is to take on Cano his former client and his bloated contract....only the Mets kind of reminds me of the Madoff mess. I'm more upset about having to give up Crow man for Baez when no one really thought after losing Jake that we had a chance at post season. Also another question: the Marlins just signed a kid Julio Mendez as a international FA so Mack where do we stand in that area?
ReplyDeletePretty lite this signing period.
DeleteOnly one of the top 50 picks.
Surprised to see a comment on this site (which touts the MLB draft 365 days a week) not refuted that signing Kimbrel would have costed the Mets "no talent."
ReplyDeleteBy making the trade BVW did not lose a first-round pick that he used on Brett Baty. Additionally, as Baty was below slot money saved on that pick allowed the Mets to draft Matt Allen. So if they had signed Kimbrel things would have shaken out like this:
No Cano - no Cano contract (20 million for first three years - 60 million)
No Diaz pay for three years (600K, 5.1 million, 7 million - 12.7 million)
Stuck with Bruce and Swarzark contracts (28 million, 8.5 million remaining - 36.5 million)
Pay Kimbrel (three years $43 million)
So Cano and Diaz cost $82.7 million for the three years (actually because of PEDS it ended up $62.7 million but I realize it makes no sense to factor that into BVWs thinking.
Keeping the bums Sandy signed and signing Kimbrel - $79.5 million for three years.
Now years four and five it's another $40 Million to Cano, no argument, but Diaz is projected to come in at $10 million. What would his replacement cost? $15 million seems low but if you use that it eats away at even this years Cano cost.
And of course if you look at the money carefully most of the money to Kimbrel, and all of the money to Sandys boondoggle signings was in the first two years. The years that BVWs employers owned the team. His job was to attempt to win for owners who were on the clock and then cashing out. And do it with as small a payroll as possible in those two years because his bosses were over leveraged.
Now moving from money to performance. Reese already did a good job on how wonderful Bruce and Swarzk continued to perform. And we know Diaz had a very bad year and two perfectly fine years. But Kimbrel was even worse than Diaz during Diaz bad year and then awful again in year two. He was great until the All Star break this year and then faltered. If someone wanted to be charitable to Kimbrel one would say their performance was the same over the time period.
That leaves Dunn and Kelenic versus Baty and Allen. Would you trade Baty and Allen for those two? I don't think it's a slam dunk and I don't even follow the minor leagues.
I thank Reese for writing this post, it is one of the most balanced and intellectually honest pieces I have ever seen written about a trade that is constantly referred to as the "Cano trade." I did want to fill in a few gaps.
Sandy just traded Crow Armstrong (a first-round pick just like Kelenic was) for a couple of months of Baez. That makes this trade look like genius yet (and not saying on this site) Sandy gets no heat.
And also overall (and this is a lot shorter) I agree with Macks POV.
ReplyDeleteUnknown, I will leave it to Reese to respond to you, but your response is certainly well thought out.
ReplyDeleteBaez-Crow....My first thought on the Crow part was it was foolish if they had little chance to make the playoffs (true) and didn't sign him at season's end (true). A very foolish move, I'd say.
Balanced AND rational......two things in short supply amongst he greater Mets' fanbase.
ReplyDeleteInteresting take, Reese. I hadn't considered the deal with a lesser package coming from the Mets, i.e. your suggestion that just the veterans and Gerson would have been a better deal. I would probably go as far as adding Dunn to the mix, but I still feel like adding Kelenic was too much. Especially since the Mets were taking back a decent chunk of change.
I agree with Mack.....so far, the Mets have gotten more production then Seattle has. But, by the time Kelenic is an established major leaguer (2022 or 2023), I think we will wish we had him patrolling one of the OF spots in CitiField.
Still lots to be determined, despite the irrational takes by the general media and a majority of the fan base (not Mack's Mets).
To Unknown...when I started writing the post I knew that Kelenic had a rough first year after stellar minor league numbers. I suspected Batista and Dunn were not doing much either. As I delved into it, the more I read the more it became clear that Van Wagenen (in this case anyway) was not the dumbest guy in the room. Sure, if Kelenic turns into a regular 30+ HR hitter but that's all that Seattle got, it may be that overall the Mets indeed came out ahead. A lot depends on which Diaz we see when baseball starts up again and which Cano graces the dressing room and playing field. As it is right now, it's a clear win for the Mets. And that came as a surprise.
ReplyDeleteUnknown, you present your case but the Mets as part of this previous CBA would have lost Josh Wolf, the second pick in the draft, not their first pick in Brett Baty. Also of note, while BVW’s job was to “win one for Fred” and that’s why he was hired over Chaim Bloom who wanted a slight rebuild, the main point is that they took Seattle’s headache and gave them their top prospect. That doesn’t make sense.
ReplyDeleteAs for throwing in Bruce and Swarzak, they saved that money by including the kids, but now they had to sign Cahna at $26MM when Kelenic could have had that spot. I know the Coupons wouldn’t care they want to save the money then and who cares about two years from now, but it was a stupid trade. And yes, the PCA trade was stupider. Incredibly stupider!
I have always defended the Diaz trade. At the time, he looked like the best, most electrifying young arm in any bullpen, on any time.
ReplyDeleteAnd Cano had always been a great hitter, in decline, but a plus for a Mets team that needed another bat.
Could have worked in 2019 -- a joyful season -- but both Diaz & Cano underperformed and Syndergaard was bad. And by worked, I think they almost got to the playoffs, could have been a WS winner.
But so much of that trade was about context, which the bashers totally ignore. The Wilpons wanted to "win now" and didn't have money. Sandy had left them with a mediocre farm system with garbage at the top: there's was no help coming.
The Mets were coming off having the worst bullpen, statistically, in all of baseball.
Brodie had faith in Alonso, McNeil and felt that the Mets could actually compete if the club was willing to make a couple of painful trades: prospects for MLB talent.
He was right. And the Mets were a delight that year, but they fell short. It was a nice try, a reasonable move.
I know that many fans wish they just traded away deGrom and tanked, but that's not my pleasure. I like it when teams try to win. It doesn't always work out.
Jimmy