Reese Kaplan -- We Need to Develop More & Better Kids

Baseball scouting has got to be one of the most frustrating and inexact sciences in the game we usually love.  Professional scouts attend games to see prospective ballplayers throwing the ball, swinging the back, running the bases and making defensive plays.  What they are trying to estimate is how the person is performing relative to their peers right now, but also a projection of how they will progress against other high ceiling draft picks as they train and grow.  

Needless to say, draft picks are a lot like batting averages.  In fact, if you hit successfully .200 -- 20% of your picks -- you'd be a candidate for a scouting Hall of Fame.  The fact is that far more people fail on their ascent to the majors than prosper.

To a great many of us who are not employed as scouts, we employ the back-of-the-baseball-card evaluation of who is the most likely to succeed in the future.  What we don't understand is that a guy who can hit a curveball against high school pitchers is not necessarily someone who can flourish when the competition level increases exponentially.  Similarly, not all players come out of the chute with their game fully developed.  

Dom Smith is a good example, despite his lackluster 2021 season, of someone who showed power much later in his career than he did when he first started his way from the small low level ballparks to the majors.  Jacob deGrom might be a good hitter for a pitcher, but he was drafted as a shortstop, not the elite pitcher he has become.  

Tom Brennan did a series recently on the Mets draft picks over the past several years.  After you get over your agita for the poor number of major leaguers identified during the drafting and research phases, think about what the process represents.  There is no magic formula for finding out who will be Mike Trout and who will be just another fish in the pond.  

The corresponding variable necessary to prepare someone for major league success is high quality skills training and physical development during the climb.  In addition, medical advice must be tailored to each individual and follow a one-size-fits-all policy.  As discussed Wednesday, the Mets seem to be highly deficient in this regard.

One of the other aspects of player development that gets very little consideration among the fans is fostering player maturity.  Many come to the minor leagues from high school and the trip away from home to some small town to play the game may actually represent the first extended time away from home.  Are the players prepared to live on their own, fend for their meals, do their own laundry, drink in moderation and stay away from recreational drugs?

A related issue for athletes is the concept of Performance Enhancing Drugs.  PEDs can theoretically help speed up recovery, augment normal exercise routines to increase muscle mass and speed, and the performance enhancements are addictive for what they mean to the future.  Better traditional stats get the attention of folks who are evaluating the advancement opportunities of each player.  

More importantly, better numbers mean astronomical paydays and long term contracts with the additional opportunity to get significant revenue through commercial endorsements.  Consequently it is easy to see how some players become ensnared in what PEDs can offer at the risk of what will happen if and when they are discovered.  Ask Robinson Cano.

As the Mets continue to try to find a manager, a coaching staff, a POBO and sufficient major league players to fill out their roster, the fact is that an equal amount of attention needs to be devoted to the scouting and drafting operations.  

No one is happier to see a hot rookie succeeding upon promotion to the majors than the accountants because it means low cost productivity until free agency hits.  Consequently it is simply good business to make sure better and more productive players are identified and developed properly in order to ensure that this financial windfall becomes possible.